Deep dive: Soil carbon MRV & incentives — the fastest-moving subsegments to watch

The voluntary agriculture carbon credit market collapsed from $91.4 million in 2022 to $36.1 million by 2024—a 60% decline that shook investor confidence and forced the industry to confront fundamental questions about measurement integrity. Yet beneath this "trough of disillusionment," a technological revolution has been quietly reshaping the landscape. Digital MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification) platforms are cutting costs by up to 90%, satellite-based monitoring is enabling smallholder farmers with as little as one acre to participate in carbon markets, and major corporate buyers like Microsoft are signing record-breaking credit purchase agreements. The agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) carbon credit market is projected to reach $26.35 billion by 2030, representing a 28.5% compound annual growth rate. For procurement teams and sustainability officers, understanding which subsegments are gaining momentum—and which are stalling—has never been more critical.

Why It Matters

Soil carbon sequestration represents one of the largest untapped climate mitigation opportunities on Earth. Agricultural soils contain approximately 2,500 gigatons of organic carbon—more than three times the carbon in the atmosphere and four times the amount stored in all living plants and animals combined. Even modest improvements in soil management practices could sequester billions of tons of CO₂ annually while simultaneously improving crop yields, water retention, and soil biodiversity.

The challenge has always been measurement. Unlike point-source emissions from a smokestack or tailpipe, soil carbon stocks are heterogeneous, spatially variable, and expensive to quantify through traditional soil sampling. A single hectare might require dozens of samples at multiple depths to establish a reliable baseline, with laboratory analysis costs ranging from $50 to $200 per sample. For a typical 500-hectare farm, baseline establishment alone could exceed $100,000—economics that simply don't work when carbon credits trade at $20-40 per ton.

This measurement bottleneck has constrained the market's growth and undermined buyer confidence. High-profile controversies around credit quality, including allegations of over-crediting and permanence failures, have dampened corporate appetite. The collapse of Running Tide in June 2024 and Nori's shutdown in September 2024—two prominent carbon removal startups—sent shockwaves through the sector, raising questions about business model viability.

Yet 2025 is emerging as a turning point. The convergence of advances in satellite remote sensing, machine learning, and biogeochemical modeling is fundamentally transforming the cost structure of soil carbon MRV. Companies that once required multi-day enrollment processes and extensive field visits are now onboarding farmers in 30 minutes and generating credit estimates before practice changes even begin. The fastest-moving subsegments are those that have cracked the code on scalable, low-cost verification while maintaining the scientific rigor that corporate buyers demand.

Key Concepts

MRV: The Three Pillars of Carbon Credit Integrity

Measurement refers to quantifying the carbon stock changes resulting from agricultural practice shifts. Traditional approaches relied exclusively on physical soil sampling—labor-intensive, expensive, and often impractical at scale. Modern approaches combine targeted sampling with remote sensing and process-based models to reduce costs while maintaining accuracy.

Reporting involves documenting practice changes, carbon quantification methodologies, and chain-of-custody information in formats that meet registry standards. Leading protocols include the Climate Action Reserve (CAR) Soil Enrichment Protocol, Verra's VM0042 methodology, and emerging standards from the Social Carbon Foundation.

Verification requires independent third-party auditing to confirm that reported carbon removals are real, additional, and permanent. Verification timelines have historically stretched to 12-18 months, but digital platforms are now compressing this to as little as 6-8 weeks.

Key Metrics That Define Success

Metric	Description	Top Performer Range	Industry Average
MRV Cost Per Acre	Fully-loaded verification cost	$5-15/acre	$30-80/acre
Enrollment Time	Farm onboarding duration	30-45 minutes	2-5 days
Time to First Credit	From enrollment to issuance	12-18 months	24-36 months
Credit Price (Forward)	Price per tonne CO₂e	$60-80	$20-40
Farmer Payment Share	% of credit value to farmers	70-85%	50-65%
Buffer Pool Allocation	% held against reversals	15-25%	10-20%
Permanence Period	Guarantee duration	10-20 years	10 years
Validation Timeline	Third-party approval	6-10 weeks	12-18 months

Practice-Based vs. Stock-Change Approaches

A fundamental methodological divide separates the industry. Practice-based approaches award credits based on adoption of regenerative practices (cover cropping, reduced tillage, improved rotations) using modeled estimates of carbon sequestration. These approaches are more scalable and lower-cost but face criticism for uncertainty around actual soil carbon changes.

Stock-change approaches require direct measurement of soil carbon before and after practice implementation, typically through repeated sampling campaigns. While more scientifically rigorous, the high costs and time requirements limit scalability.

The fastest-moving platforms are pursuing hybrid approaches that combine satellite-based practice verification with biogeochemical modeling, calibrated by strategic soil sampling. This architecture preserves scientific credibility while achieving the cost structures necessary for mass-market adoption.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Satellite-Powered Practice Verification: Remote sensing platforms can now automatically detect agricultural practices—cover crop presence, tillage intensity, crop rotations—from multispectral satellite imagery. Regrow Ag's Program Data Review system flags discrepancies between farmer-reported practices and satellite-detected conditions, enabling verification at continental scale. This automation reduces enrollment fraud while eliminating the need for expensive field visits.

Biogeochemical Modeling at Scale: Process-based models like DNDC (DeNitrification DeComposition) predict soil carbon dynamics based on crop type, soil composition, weather patterns, and management practices. When properly calibrated with regional soil samples, these models can estimate carbon sequestration with sufficient accuracy for carbon credit generation. Indigo Ag's DayCent-CR model became the first to achieve Climate Action Reserve validation in 2024, unlocking credits worth 40-60% more per acre than previous methodologies.

Smallholder Inclusion via Technology: Boomitra's satellite-based MRV platform has enrolled over 150,000 smallholder farmers across India, Mexico, Kenya, and Colombia—many with holdings under 5 acres that would be economically excluded under traditional sampling approaches. The company's URVARA project in India achieved its first credit issuance in April 2025, with 47,311 credits verified from 6,000+ farmers across six Indian states. Project economics work at credit prices under $40/ton, dramatically below US market rates, demonstrating viability in emerging market contexts.

Corporate Buyer Commitments: Microsoft's purchase of 40,000 carbon credits from Indigo Ag in June 2024 represented the largest single soil carbon credit transaction to date. Such high-profile commitments signal that sophisticated corporate buyers see value in rigorously-verified soil carbon removal, even as the broader voluntary carbon market faces skepticism. JPMorgan Chase, Shopify, Barclays, and The North Face have similarly committed to soil carbon credit purchases.

What Isn't Working

Over-Reliance on Practice Assumptions: Early soil carbon programs awarded credits based on generic assumptions about practice impacts—for example, crediting 0.5 tons CO₂/acre for any cover crop adoption regardless of species, climate zone, or soil type. Post-issuance audits revealed that actual sequestration often fell far short of credited amounts, damaging market credibility and triggering buyer withdrawals.

Permanence Guarantees Without Enforcement Mechanisms: Soil carbon is inherently reversible—a single plow pass can release years of accumulated sequestration. Programs with weak permanence monitoring have suffered reversal events that undermined credit integrity. The industry standard of 10-year guarantees may be insufficient for buyers seeking climate equivalence with permanent removal pathways.

Blockchain Solutions Seeking Problems: Nori's 2024 shutdown offers a cautionary tale. The company raised $17.25 million to build a blockchain-based carbon removal marketplace, betting that distributed ledger technology would solve trust and transparency challenges. But blockchain couldn't address the fundamental problem of soil carbon credit demand—corporate buyers weren't purchasing at volumes needed to sustain the business. Technology infrastructure matters less than market development and scientific credibility.

Remote Sensing Depth Limitations: Satellite-based monitoring is constrained to surface observations and cannot directly measure subsurface soil carbon. Most platforms focus on the top 30cm of soil, potentially missing significant carbon stocks in deeper horizons—particularly important in dryland regions where perennial root systems deposit carbon at depth. This methodological limitation constrains credit generation in precisely the ecosystems where regenerative practices may have the largest impact.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Indigo Ag — The undisputed market leader with nearly 1 million credits issued across three harvest cycles. Only company to achieve multiple consecutive credit issuances at scale under CAR Soil Enrichment Protocol. Microsoft, Shopify, and JPMorgan are notable buyers. Enhanced program launched June 2024 offers $60-80/ton forward pricing.
Regrow Ag — Leading MRV platform provider serving carbon project developers including Cargill RegenConnect. Combines satellite practice verification, DNDC modeling, and strategic soil sampling. Operational across five continents supporting VM0042 and CAR SEP protocols.
Agreena — European market leader with operations in UK, France, Germany, and Scandinavia. Focus on practice-based crediting with satellite verification. Strong relationships with European food and agriculture corporates seeking scope 3 emissions reductions.
Agoro Carbon Alliance — Joint venture between major fertilizer companies operating in North America. Leverages existing farmer relationships for carbon program enrollment. Focus on large-scale commodity crop operations.

Emerging Startups

Boomitra — Satellite-first platform focused on smallholder farmers in emerging markets. 2023 Earthshot Prize winner. First credit issuance from India in April 2025 (47,311 tons from URVARA project). Goal of 1 gigaton removal by 2030.
Downforce Technologies — UK-based digital soil organic carbon measurement platform. Raised $4.2 million seed funding in June 2024 from Equator VC. Focus on reducing MRV costs through machine learning.
Soil Capital — Belgian company raised €15 million Series B in September 2024 led by Trill Impact Ventures. Operates across UK, France, and Belgium with 1,600+ farmers and 350,000 hectares under management.
CarbonSpace — AI-powered soil carbon monitoring using hyperspectral satellite imagery. Targeting precision agriculture integration and real-time monitoring capabilities.

Key Investors & Funders

Breakthrough Energy Ventures — Bill Gates-backed fund with $3.5B+ committed capital. BEV III fund raised $839M in 2024. Active in carbon removal and regenerative agriculture.
Lowercarbon Capital — Ranked among top 3 most active carbon/emissions tech investors since 2018. Portfolio includes biological carbon capture and soil-based solutions.
S2G Ventures — Specialist sustainable food and agriculture investor. Led Sound Agriculture's $25M Series C (December 2024). Focus on soil health and microbiome technologies.
Trill Impact Ventures — Led Soil Capital's €15M Series B. Focus on European regenerative agriculture and climate tech.
USDA Climate-Smart Commodities Program — Government initiative providing $3.1 billion in grants for pilot projects linking regenerative practices to supply chain premiums. Major catalyst for US market development.

Examples

1. Indigo Ag's Microsoft Partnership: In June 2024, Microsoft purchased 40,000 soil carbon credits from Indigo Ag's Carbon program—the largest single agricultural soil carbon credit transaction in market history. The deal validated Indigo's DayCent-CR biogeochemical model, which had recently received Climate Action Reserve approval as the first such model to meet their rigorous standards. Critically, the transaction demonstrated that major technology companies are willing to pay premium prices ($60-80/ton) for rigorously-verified removal credits, even as commodity-grade offsets trade at far lower levels. Indigo's enhanced program now offers farmers 40-60% higher credit generation per acre compared to previous methodologies, fundamentally improving unit economics for participating growers.

2. Boomitra's URVARA Project in India: Boomitra's URVARA project achieved the first-ever soil carbon credit issuance from smallholder farmers in India in April 2025. Working with the Social Carbon Foundation, the company verified 47,311 credits from 6,000+ farmers across six Indian states growing cotton, soybeans, sugarcane, rice, and bananas. The satellite-based MRV approach—using 100+ multispectral satellites for monitoring—reduced verification costs by 90% compared to traditional soil sampling, enabling farmers with as little as one acre to participate. The 45-day validation timeline, compressed from industry-typical 12-18 months via the Social Carbon Portal's digital infrastructure, demonstrated that emerging market projects can achieve crediting efficiency matching or exceeding developed-market peers.

3. Regrow Ag's Cargill RegenConnect Integration: Regrow's MRV platform powers Cargill's RegenConnect program, one of the largest corporate regenerative agriculture initiatives in North America. The partnership combines Regrow's satellite-based practice verification with DNDC modeling to quantify emissions reductions across Cargill's grain sourcing operations. The integration extends beyond carbon credits to include comprehensive sustainability claims for grain purchasers, enabling downstream food companies to make verified regenerative agriculture claims in their supply chains. By processing millions of acres through automated pipelines, the platform demonstrates that MRV technology can scale to meet the demands of global commodity supply chains.

Action Checklist

Audit current carbon credit portfolios for soil carbon exposure and verify that underlying methodologies meet evolving registry standards (CAR SEP, VM0042, or equivalent)
Evaluate MRV platform providers based on cost per acre, enrollment friction, and scientific validation of biogeochemical models
Require 15-25% buffer pool allocations and minimum 10-year permanence monitoring in all soil carbon credit purchase agreements
Prioritize credits from projects with hybrid MRV approaches (satellite verification + targeted sampling + modeling) over pure practice-based or pure sampling-based methodologies
Assess Asia-Pacific market opportunities as satellite MRV enables cost-effective smallholder inclusion in carbon markets
Engage agricultural supply chain partners on regenerative practice adoption, linking carbon credit generation to scope 3 emissions reduction targets
Monitor regulatory developments including EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework (certifications expected 2026-2027) and enhanced protocols from North American registries

FAQ

Q: How reliable are satellite-based estimates of soil carbon sequestration? A: Satellites cannot directly measure soil carbon—they detect surface conditions and practice changes. Reliability depends on the quality of biogeochemical models calibrated with ground-truth soil samples. Best-in-class platforms achieve correlations of 0.7-0.85 between modeled and measured carbon stock changes, sufficient for carbon credit generation but with acknowledged uncertainty bounds. Conservative crediting approaches apply discounts of 15-30% to account for model uncertainty.

Q: What's driving the price divergence between high-integrity and commodity soil carbon credits? A: Corporate buyers with science-based targets increasingly distinguish between credits with robust MRV (trading at $60-80/ton) and those with weaker verification (trading at $15-30/ton). Microsoft, Stripe, and other leading buyers have published quality criteria that effectively exclude commodity-grade credits, creating bifurcated demand. As regulatory frameworks mature—particularly the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework—this divergence is expected to widen.

Q: Can smallholder farmers in developing countries realistically participate in soil carbon markets? A: Yes, with appropriate technology. Boomitra's URVARA project demonstrated viability at credit prices under $40/ton for Indian farmers with holdings as small as one acre. Satellite-based MRV eliminates the per-farm fixed costs that previously excluded small operations. Key enablers include aggregation platforms that bundle small farms into crediting projects, mobile-first farmer interfaces, and integration with existing agricultural extension networks.

Q: How should procurement teams think about permanence risk in soil carbon credits? A: Soil carbon is inherently reversible through tillage, land conversion, or management changes. Robust programs mitigate this through buffer pools (typically 15-25% of credits withheld against reversals), long-term monitoring commitments, and contractual clawback provisions. Procurement teams should require evidence of active permanence monitoring and understand the financial mechanisms protecting against reversal events. For portfolios requiring climate permanence, blending soil carbon credits with geologically-permanent removal pathways (mineralization, geological storage) may be appropriate.

Q: What's the outlook for soil carbon credit prices through 2030? A: BloombergNEF projects soil carbon credit prices could reach $238/ton by 2050 under optimistic demand scenarios. Near-term, 2025-2027 prices are expected to remain in the $40-100/ton range depending on quality and verification rigor. The market remains supply-constrained for high-integrity credits—issuance capacity is growing at 30%+ annually, but corporate demand from net-zero commitments is expanding faster. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, enabling bilateral credit transfers, could significantly expand demand for compliance-grade soil carbon credits beyond the voluntary market.

Sources

GM Insights, "Voluntary Agriculture Carbon Credit Market Size, 2025-2034 Report," January 2025
PitchBook, "2024 Carbon & Emissions Tech Industry Overview," December 2024
Indigo Ag, "Climate Action Reserve Approves Enhanced Model," June 2024
Boomitra, "URVARA Project First Credit Issuance Announcement," April 2025
Mission Innovation, "MRV for Carbon Dioxide Removal Report," December 2024
GlobeNewswire, "Carbon Credit for Agriculture, Forestry & Land Use Market Report 2026," January 2026
Trellis, "Soil Carbon Credits Emerge from the Trough of Disillusionment," 2024
Regrow Ag, "Principles of a Scalable MRV System," 2024