Explainer: Behavior change & climate communications — the concepts, the economics, and the decision checklist

According to the United Nations Environment Programme, individual and household consumption decisions account for approximately 65-72% of global greenhouse gas emissions when traced through supply chains. Yet despite decades of environmental awareness campaigns, a 2024 Yale Program on Climate Change Communication study found that only 23% of adults in emerging markets can accurately identify which personal actions yield the greatest emissions reductions. This gap between awareness and effective action represents both a critical failure and an enormous opportunity—one where the unit economics of behavior change interventions are finally becoming favorable enough for scaled deployment.

Why It Matters

The climate communications landscape has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2024 and 2025. Traditional awareness-raising approaches—characterized by information deficit models assuming that knowledge alone drives behavior—have given way to sophisticated, data-driven interventions that leverage behavioral economics, social norming, and digital personalization. This shift matters enormously for emerging markets, where the next two decades will see the bulk of global infrastructure buildout, urbanization, and middle-class consumption growth.

In 2024, the global market for climate behavior change solutions reached approximately $4.2 billion, with emerging markets representing 31% of deployments—up from just 18% in 2021. The International Energy Agency projects that behavior change interventions in developing economies could deliver 15-20% of the emissions reductions needed by 2030, at a fraction of the cost of infrastructure overhauls. India alone could avoid 350 million tonnes of CO2 annually through optimized household energy behaviors, while Indonesia's emerging carbon market increasingly recognizes behavioral interventions as eligible offset categories.

For decision-makers in policy and compliance roles, the stakes are substantial. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), fully operational from 2026, will require exporters to demonstrate emissions intensity across value chains—including embedded behavioral factors in production and logistics. Emerging market manufacturers serving European supply chains face mounting pressure to document not just technological upgrades but workforce behavioral programs that contribute to verified emissions reductions. The question is no longer whether to invest in climate communications, but how to structure these investments for measurable, auditable outcomes.

Key Concepts

Understanding climate behavior change requires fluency in several interconnected concepts that bridge psychology, economics, and regulatory frameworks.

Behavior Change in the climate context refers to systematic interventions designed to shift individual or collective actions toward lower-emission alternatives. Unlike one-time technology adoptions, behavior change addresses ongoing patterns—transportation mode choices, consumption decisions, energy use habits, and dietary preferences. The field distinguishes between automatic behaviors (habitual, low-conscious-effort) and reflective behaviors (deliberate, information-dependent), with successful interventions typically targeting the former through environmental restructuring and the latter through enhanced decision support.

Permitting extends beyond its traditional regulatory meaning in climate communications to encompass the cognitive and social barriers that individuals must overcome before adopting new behaviors. Research identifies three permission layers: self-permission (believing oneself capable of change), social permission (perceiving community acceptance), and institutional permission (understanding that systems support the new behavior). In emerging markets, institutional permission gaps—such as absent public transit options or unreliable clean energy grids—frequently undermine otherwise well-designed communication campaigns.

OPEX (Operational Expenditure) considerations dominate the unit economics of behavior change programs. Unlike capital-intensive hardware deployments, climate communications represent ongoing costs: content development, channel maintenance, community management, and measurement systems. The critical metric is cost-per-behavior-change-event, which ranges from $0.50-$3.00 in well-optimized digital campaigns to $15-$40 for in-person community interventions. However, OPEX intensity typically decreases 40-60% after initial program establishment as reusable content libraries and trained community networks reduce marginal costs.

Additionality represents perhaps the most contested concept in behavior change crediting. For interventions to generate recognized emissions reductions—whether for voluntary carbon markets, Article 6 mechanisms, or corporate sustainability reporting—they must demonstrate that observed behavior changes would not have occurred in the absence of the intervention. Emerging market contexts complicate additionality assessments because baseline behaviors shift rapidly with urbanization, income growth, and infrastructure development. Robust additionality protocols require longitudinal control groups and counterfactual modeling that many programs struggle to implement cost-effectively.

EU Taxonomy alignment increasingly shapes behavior change program design, even for organizations operating primarily in emerging markets. The EU's sustainable finance classification system defines technical screening criteria for economic activities, and climate communications supporting taxonomy-aligned activities (such as programs enabling low-carbon transportation modal shifts) can facilitate green bond issuances and sustainability-linked loan terms. For emerging market entities seeking European capital, demonstrating EU Taxonomy coherence in behavioral programming has become a meaningful competitive advantage.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Digital-first, hyper-localized campaigns have emerged as the highest-ROI intervention format across emerging markets. Kenya's M-KOPA, primarily known for solar home system financing, documented a 34% reduction in kerosene use among customers receiving weekly SMS nudges with hyper-local content referencing neighborhood adoption rates and community leaders. The cost-per-household-reached fell below $0.08 while sustaining behavior change for >18 months post-intervention. Similar models in Bangladesh and Nigeria have achieved cost-per-tonne-avoided metrics competitive with traditional renewable energy credits.

Employer-embedded programs demonstrate superior persistence compared to consumer-facing campaigns. PT Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, implemented a workforce behavior change initiative across its refinery operations that combined gamification, peer accountability networks, and modest financial incentives. The program achieved 12% reductions in operational energy intensity and—critically—maintained 89% of gains through the 24-month measurement period. Employer programs benefit from existing communication channels, trust relationships, and the ability to restructure choice architectures (cafeteria menus, commute options, meeting defaults) rather than merely messaging.

MRV-integrated behavior tracking platforms have resolved the long-standing additionality challenge for leading programs. Organizations like Joro in the United States and Changers in Germany have developed carbon footprint tracking applications that generate granular, verified behavior change data suitable for offset crediting. In emerging markets, India's Tata Sustainability Group has piloted similar systems across employee and community populations, achieving third-party verification through partnership with Gold Standard. These MRV-integrated approaches command premium pricing—often 2-3x conventional awareness campaigns—but deliver auditable outcomes increasingly required by sophisticated buyers.

What Isn't Working

Information-only approaches continue to dominate emerging market climate communications despite decades of evidence documenting their limitations. Government awareness campaigns in Brazil, South Africa, and Thailand consistently show high awareness metrics (>80% of target populations recalling key messages) but negligible behavioral impact (<5% measurable change in relevant behaviors). The persistence of information-only models reflects procurement structures that reward reach metrics over outcome metrics, combined with political preferences for visible, broad campaigns over targeted interventions with smaller but genuine impacts.

One-size-fits-all messaging fails systematically across emerging market heterogeneity. Climate communications designed for urban, educated, digitally-connected populations perform poorly when deployed in peri-urban or rural contexts where trust networks, information channels, and material constraints differ fundamentally. A 2024 meta-analysis across 47 behavior change programs found that programs without audience segmentation achieved only 23% of the impact per dollar compared to segmented approaches—yet segmentation adds 30-50% to program design costs, creating a capability gap that many organizations cannot bridge.

Isolated interventions disconnected from infrastructure generate frustration rather than change. Vietnam's national campaign promoting electric vehicle adoption (2023-2024) achieved substantial awareness and stated intention increases, but actual purchase behavior remained flat in regions lacking charging infrastructure. Behavior change communications operate as multipliers on underlying system capabilities; in their absence, communications create expectation-reality gaps that damage program credibility and reduce responsiveness to future campaigns. Decision-makers must sequence infrastructure and communications investments coherently rather than treating them as independent workstreams.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Rare (United States) operates the Center for Behavior & the Environment, deploying evidence-based behavior change methodologies across 60+ countries with particular strength in coastal communities and small-scale fisheries. Their "Pride" campaign model has documented replication across Southeast Asian and African contexts.

BehaviourWorks Australia at Monash University represents the academic-practitioner interface, providing behavior change design services to government agencies and corporations throughout the Asia-Pacific region while maintaining methodological rigor through peer-reviewed research outputs.

Ogilvy Change (Global) offers the advertising industry's most developed climate behavior capability, combining creative execution strength with behavioral science integration. Their work with IKEA on sustainable living campaigns demonstrates mass-market reach with behavioral sophistication.

ideas42 (United States) applies behavioral economics to climate and development challenges, with particular expertise in financial behavior and energy use. Their emerging markets portfolio includes programs in India, Kenya, and Colombia targeting household energy efficiency and clean cooking transitions.

The Behavioural Insights Team (United Kingdom) pioneered government application of behavioral science and maintains an expanding climate practice. Their work with the UAE and Singapore governments on nationally-scaled nudge programs offers models for emerging market government adoption.

Emerging Startups

Joro (United States) provides consumer carbon footprint tracking with behavior change nudges, generating verified emissions reduction data suitable for corporate offset programs. Their B2B2C model has expanded into emerging market partnerships with telecom and financial services providers.

Changers (Germany) operates a gamified sustainability platform deployed across corporate and municipal contexts, with documented success in driving commute modal shifts and energy behavior changes across European and Asian markets.

Commons (India) offers a climate-focused fintech application combining spending analysis with behavior change recommendations, targeting India's growing urban middle class with personalized decarbonization pathways.

Yayzy (United Kingdom) provides automated carbon tracking linked to banking transactions, with expansion into South African and Nigerian markets through banking partnerships that embed climate consciousness into everyday financial interactions.

ClimateClever (Australia) focuses on school-based behavior change programming, training students as household ambassadors who drive family-level emissions reductions—a model demonstrating particular effectiveness in collectivist emerging market cultures.

Key Investors & Funders

Bezos Earth Fund has deployed over $150 million toward behavior change and climate communications, including major grants to Rare and support for digital behavior platforms targeting emerging market populations.

Bloomberg Philanthropies funds climate communications capacity building across emerging market city networks, with particular emphasis on transportation behavior change linked to urban mobility infrastructure investments.

IKEA Foundation supports household-level behavior change programs across renewable energy access and sustainable consumption domains, with substantial portfolios in India and East Africa.

Global Environment Facility (GEF) provides multilateral funding for government-led behavior change programs, though its project cycles (typically 4-6 years) create constraints for the rapid iteration that effective behavioral programming requires.

Omidyar Network invests in digital platforms enabling climate behavior change, with portfolio companies spanning fintech, transportation, and energy sectors across emerging markets in Asia and Africa.

Examples

1. India's Ujjwala 2.0 Clean Cooking Transition: The Government of India's LPG distribution program incorporated behavior change communications from 2023-2025, reaching 96 million households with messaging addressing safety concerns, economic benefits, and social norming around modern fuel use. Third-party evaluation documented 67% sustained adoption rates (vs. 43% in control regions) and estimated annual avoidance of 28 million tonnes CO2-equivalent. The program achieved cost-per-household of $4.20 for behavior change communications atop existing distribution infrastructure, demonstrating how layered interventions on infrastructure programs multiply impact. Additionality was established through randomized rollout design enabling rigorous counterfactual construction.

2. Kenya's Sustainable Consumption Campaign (M-PESA Integration): Safaricom partnered with UNEP to embed climate behavior nudges within the M-PESA mobile money platform, reaching 31 million users with personalized messaging linked to transaction categories. The 2024-2025 pilot achieved 12% reduction in high-emission purchase categories among engaged users, with particularly strong effects in transportation (23% modal shift toward matatus and walking) and food (18% reduction in beef purchases). The unit economics proved compelling: $0.03 per user reached, $0.45 per documented behavior change event, and estimated $8.50 per tonne CO2-equivalent avoided—competitive with forestry offsets while delivering co-benefits in household economics and health outcomes.

3. Indonesia's Corporate Fleet Decarbonization Behavior Program: Gojek, the ride-hailing platform, implemented driver behavior optimization programming across its 2.8 million driver-partners in 2024, combining app-based feedback, peer comparison dashboards, and tiered incentive structures. The program documented 9% fleet-wide fuel efficiency improvements (equivalent to 420,000 tonnes CO2 annually) at a fully-loaded program cost of $2.1 million—yielding cost-per-tonne metrics of approximately $5.00, substantially below prevailing carbon credit prices. The program's success catalyzed replication discussions with Grab (Southeast Asia) and Ola (India), suggesting an emerging model for gig-economy climate behavior interventions at scale.

Action Checklist

• Conduct baseline behavior assessment using validated measurement instruments before designing communications interventions
• Segment target audiences by behavioral drivers (not just demographics) to enable message personalization that achieves 2-4x impact multipliers
• Establish MRV protocols compliant with recognized standards (Gold Standard, Verra) if carbon credit generation is a program objective
• Design interventions addressing all three permission layers (self, social, institutional) rather than focusing solely on information provision
• Build explicit feedback loops showing participants the collective impact of individual behavior changes to sustain motivation
• Integrate behavior change communications with infrastructure investments to avoid expectation-reality gaps that undermine credibility
• Structure OPEX budgets to sustain 18-24 month program durations, as behavior change typically requires 6-12 months for habit formation
• Develop EU Taxonomy alignment documentation if accessing European capital markets or serving European supply chains
• Partner with local institutions (employers, financial services, telecom providers) that provide trusted channels and existing behavioral data
• Establish control populations enabling additionality demonstration for regulatory compliance and market credibility

FAQ

Q: How do behavior change programs demonstrate additionality for carbon market crediting? A: Additionality demonstration requires establishing that observed behavior changes would not have occurred without the intervention. Leading methodologies employ randomized controlled trials with treatment and control populations, longitudinal tracking through digital platforms, and counterfactual modeling based on baseline trend data. The Gold Standard and Verra have developed specific protocols for behavior change crediting that specify minimum evidence thresholds, typically requiring 12+ months of post-intervention data and statistical significance at p<0.05 levels. Emerging market programs face particular challenges due to rapidly shifting baselines from urbanization and income growth, necessitating dynamic baseline adjustment protocols that add 15-25% to MRV costs.

Q: What unit economics benchmarks should decision-makers expect for behavior change programs in emerging markets? A: Cost metrics vary substantially by intervention type and target behavior. Digital-first programs (SMS, app-based) typically achieve $0.02-$0.10 cost-per-person-reached and $0.50-$3.00 cost-per-behavior-change-event for high-frequency behaviors (transportation mode, energy use). In-person community programs range from $15-$40 per behavior change event but demonstrate superior persistence. When translated to carbon metrics, well-designed programs achieve $5-$25 per tonne CO2-equivalent avoided—competitive with nature-based solutions and substantially below technological carbon removal. Decision-makers should budget 40-60% higher costs for initial program establishment, with unit economics improving as content libraries, trained networks, and measurement systems mature.

Q: How does the EU Taxonomy affect behavior change programs in emerging markets? A: The EU Taxonomy influences emerging market behavior change programs through three pathways. First, European corporate sustainability reporting requirements (CSRD) increasingly require documentation of Scope 3 emissions reduction efforts, including supply chain behavior change initiatives. Second, emerging market entities accessing EU capital markets (green bonds, sustainability-linked loans) benefit from demonstrating Taxonomy-aligned activities, including behavioral programming supporting low-carbon transitions. Third, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism creates incentives for exporters to document emissions intensity reductions, including behavioral components. Programs should maintain documentation linking behavior change outcomes to Taxonomy-eligible activities (renewable energy adoption, sustainable transportation, circular economy participation) to maximize regulatory and financial benefits.

Q: What are the biggest failure modes for climate communications in emerging markets? A: Three failure modes dominate. First, infrastructure-communications misalignment occurs when programs promote behaviors that existing systems cannot support (e.g., EV adoption without charging networks), generating frustration and credibility damage. Second, cultural translation failures happen when programs designed for developed market contexts are deployed without adaptation to local trust networks, communication channels, and decision-making structures. Third, measurement inadequacy undermines programs that achieve genuine behavior change but cannot demonstrate outcomes to funders, regulators, or carbon markets due to absent or poorly-designed MRV systems. Successful programs invest 15-20% of total budgets in context research and measurement infrastructure to avoid these pitfalls.

Q: What should decision-makers watch for in 2025-2026? A: Four developments merit close attention. First, Article 6 operationalization under the Paris Agreement will establish international frameworks for behavior change crediting, likely favoring programs with robust digital MRV and nationally-determined contribution alignment. Second, AI-enabled personalization is driving rapid cost reduction in message customization, with early programs achieving 3-5x engagement improvements through machine learning-optimized content delivery. Third, financial services integration is accelerating as banks and fintechs embed carbon tracking and behavior nudges into transactional platforms, reaching scale that standalone climate apps cannot achieve. Fourth, employer-focused models are gaining traction as corporate Scope 3 pressures mount, with behavior change becoming a recognized category of supply chain decarbonization investment eligible for climate finance mechanisms.

Sources

• United Nations Environment Programme. (2024). Emissions Gap Report 2024. Nairobi: UNEP.
• Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. (2024). Climate Change in the Global South: Public Perceptions and Behavior. New Haven: Yale University.
• International Energy Agency. (2024). Behavioural Changes: Contribution to Achieving Net Zero by 2050. Paris: IEA.
• Gold Standard Foundation. (2024). Methodology for Quantifying GHG Emission Reductions from Behavior Change Interventions. Geneva: Gold Standard.
• Rare Center for Behavior & the Environment. (2024). Behavioral Insights for Climate Action: Evidence from 60 Countries. Arlington: Rare.
• European Commission. (2024). EU Taxonomy Compass: Technical Guidance for Climate Change Mitigation Activities. Brussels: EC.
• World Bank Group. (2024). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024. Washington: World Bank.