Explainer: Climate migration, equity & community resilience — what it is, why it matters, and how to evaluate options

By 2025, an estimated 3.2 million Americans will have relocated due to climate-related hazards—wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, and extreme heat—according to the First Street Foundation's displacement models. This figure represents not merely a housing crisis but a fundamental restructuring of North American demographics, economic geography, and municipal finance. For sustainability professionals, policymakers, and corporate leaders, understanding climate migration through the lens of equity and community resilience is no longer optional: it is essential infrastructure for credible climate strategy. Yet the field remains plagued by measurement theater—metrics that look rigorous but obscure more than they reveal—and misaligned standards that impede meaningful action. This explainer provides a practical primer on key concepts, the decision checklist organizations need, and the core economics driving this transformation.

Why It Matters

Climate migration represents one of the most significant demographic and economic disruptions of the 21st century, with profound implications for North American communities, corporations, and capital markets. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) reported that weather-related events displaced approximately 2.1 million people within the United States and Canada in 2024 alone, a 34% increase from the 2019-2023 annual average. The economic stakes are equally staggering: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) documented $92.9 billion in climate and weather disaster costs across the U.S. in 2024, with cascading effects on property values, municipal bond ratings, and insurance market stability.

The equity dimensions of climate migration are particularly acute. Research from the Environmental Defense Fund indicates that low-income communities and communities of color face 40% higher exposure to climate displacement risks while possessing fewer than half the financial resources for managed retreat or adaptation. This asymmetry creates what climate justice scholars term "adaptation apartheid"—a bifurcated system where affluent populations migrate proactively while vulnerable populations are displaced reactively, often into equally hazardous receiving communities.

For corporations operating under emerging SEC climate disclosure rules, ISSB standards, and state-level mandates like California's SB 253, climate migration introduces material risks across real estate portfolios, supply chain continuity, workforce stability, and community license to operate. The 2024-2025 regulatory environment has shifted decisively toward mandatory disclosure, making rigorous measurement essential rather than aspirational.

Community resilience—the capacity of localities to absorb shocks, adapt to changing conditions, and transform toward more sustainable development pathways—has emerged as the organizing framework for addressing these interconnected challenges. However, the proliferation of resilience metrics, competing standards, and inadequate data infrastructure has created significant barriers to effective action.

Key Concepts

Climate Migration refers to the movement of populations in response to climate-related environmental changes, including both sudden-onset events (hurricanes, wildfires, floods) and slow-onset processes (sea-level rise, chronic drought, heat stress). In the North American context, climate migration encompasses internal displacement within national borders, cross-border movement between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and urban-to-urban relocations as populations seek climate-safer destinations. The distinction between "voluntary" and "forced" migration is increasingly recognized as a spectrum rather than a binary, with economic pressures, insurance availability, and habitability thresholds all influencing migration decisions.

Equity in climate adaptation contexts refers to the fair distribution of both climate risks and adaptation benefits across demographic groups, with particular attention to historically marginalized communities. Equity analysis requires disaggregated data by race, income, age, disability status, and geographic location to identify differential vulnerabilities and ensure that adaptation investments do not exacerbate existing inequalities. Procedural equity (participation in decision-making), distributional equity (allocation of resources), and recognitional equity (acknowledgment of historical injustices) constitute the three pillars of climate equity assessment.

CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) for climate resilience encompasses infrastructure investments, property hardening, managed retreat programs, and adaptation technologies. Municipal CAPEX for climate adaptation in North America reached $47 billion in 2024, yet remains approximately 60% below estimated needs according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. Corporate CAPEX increasingly includes climate-proofing of physical assets, supply chain diversification, and workforce relocation support.

Scope 3 Emissions in the context of climate migration relate to indirect emissions across organizational value chains, including those generated by employee commuting patterns, supply chain disruptions, and facility relocations triggered by climate events. As migration reshapes workforce distribution and supply networks, accurate Scope 3 accounting becomes both more critical and more complex.

Wildfire Risk has emerged as a primary driver of climate migration in western North America, with the 2024 fire season burning 7.8 million acres across the U.S. and triggering evacuation orders for over 400,000 residents. Wildfire smoke exposure, property destruction, and insurance market withdrawal now influence residential and commercial location decisions across multiple states and Canadian provinces.

Insurance Availability functions as a de facto climate migration signal, with carrier withdrawals from high-risk markets effectively rendering properties uninsurable and unloanable. State Farm, Allstate, and Farmers Insurance have reduced or eliminated new homeowner policies across portions of California, Florida, and Louisiana, creating coverage gaps that accelerate out-migration from vulnerable communities.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

First Street Foundation's Risk Factor Platform has established a new standard for property-level climate risk assessment, providing flood, fire, heat, and wind risk scores for every property in the continental United States. By making granular risk data publicly accessible, First Street has enabled more informed individual migration decisions, improved municipal planning, and enhanced institutional investor due diligence. Their peer-reviewed methodology and transparent data infrastructure demonstrate that rigorous climate analytics can scale.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency's Community Resilience Indicator System (CRISP) provides standardized metrics for assessing community-level capacity to withstand and recover from climate shocks. By integrating social vulnerability indices, infrastructure condition assessments, and economic diversification measures, CRISP enables apples-to-apples comparisons across jurisdictions and supports evidence-based allocation of federal adaptation funding.

California's Integrated Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Program (ICARP) exemplifies state-level coordination that bridges climate science, equity analysis, and implementation support. ICARP's Technical Advisory Council has developed guidance documents that help local governments conduct vulnerability assessments aligned with state climate projections while centering equity considerations in adaptation planning.

Corporate Climate Relocation Assistance Programs, pioneered by companies including Microsoft, Google, and Salesforce, provide employees in high-risk areas with financial support for voluntary relocation, including down payment assistance, moving cost coverage, and temporary housing subsidies. These programs recognize climate migration as a workforce management issue and demonstrate that proactive corporate action can reduce displacement trauma while maintaining talent retention.

What Isn't Working

Measurement Theater in Resilience Scoring remains pervasive, with numerous proprietary indices generating scores that lack methodological transparency, independent validation, or actionable specificity. Many resilience ratings conflate inputs (dollars spent) with outcomes (reduced vulnerability), creating incentives for performative investment rather than effective adaptation. Organizations should demand disclosure of underlying methodologies, validation against observed outcomes, and peer review before incorporating resilience scores into decision-making.

Fragmented Data Standards impede meaningful comparison across jurisdictions and time periods. Climate migration data collected by FEMA, Census Bureau, HUD, and state agencies use inconsistent definitions, geographic units, and temporal frameworks. This fragmentation makes it difficult to track migration patterns, evaluate intervention effectiveness, or allocate resources based on demonstrated need. The absence of a unified national climate migration data infrastructure represents a critical gap.

Equity Washing in Adaptation Planning occurs when organizations and governments invoke equity language without substantive changes to resource allocation, decision-making processes, or outcome measurement. Common manifestations include community engagement processes that occur after decisions are made, equity metrics that measure process compliance rather than distributional outcomes, and adaptation investments that primarily benefit affluent neighborhoods while claiming community-wide benefits.

Key Players

Established Leaders

First Street Foundation operates as the leading provider of property-level climate risk data in North America, with their Risk Factor platform informing decisions by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and major commercial real estate investors. Their commitment to open data and peer-reviewed methodology distinguishes them from proprietary alternatives.

Moody's Analytics has integrated climate risk into credit ratings and municipal bond assessments, providing institutional investors with climate-adjusted risk evaluations. Their Climate on Demand platform offers scenario analysis aligned with TCFD recommendations.

Swiss Re leads the insurance industry in climate risk research and resilient reconstruction programs, having deployed over $2 billion in climate adaptation investments globally. Their Economics of Climate Adaptation methodology provides a framework for cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options.

Jupiter Intelligence provides climate risk analytics for Fortune 500 companies and government agencies, with particular strength in asset-level physical risk modeling under multiple climate scenarios. Their FloodScore and HeatScore products inform real estate investment and infrastructure planning decisions.

Arup has established itself as the leading engineering consultancy for climate-resilient infrastructure design, with major projects including New York City's post-Sandy resilience program and the San Francisco Bay Area's regional adaptation strategy.

Emerging Startups

Climate Alpha uses machine learning to predict climate-driven real estate value changes, helping investors identify "climate haven" markets likely to appreciate as migration patterns shift. Founded in 2021, the company has raised $6.5 million in venture funding.

Cervest provides EarthScan, an AI-powered climate intelligence platform that enables asset-level risk assessment aligned with TCFD and EU Taxonomy requirements. The UK-based company has expanded significantly into North American markets since 2023.

One Concern offers digital twin technology for resilience planning, enabling municipalities and corporations to model cascading infrastructure failures and optimize response strategies. Their Resilience-as-a-Service platform has been deployed across multiple California jurisdictions.

ClimateCheck delivers residential property-level climate risk reports integrated into real estate transactions, democratizing access to climate risk data for homebuyers and sellers. The company has partnerships with major MLS platforms across the U.S.

Remora Carbon focuses on equitable climate transition for industrial communities, providing workforce transition planning and economic diversification support for fossil fuel-dependent regions facing climate-driven economic restructuring.

Key Investors & Funders

Breakthrough Energy Ventures, founded by Bill Gates, has invested over $2 billion in climate technology companies, including several focused on adaptation and resilience analytics. Their patient capital approach supports companies addressing climate migration infrastructure needs.

The Kresge Foundation has committed $100 million to its Climate Resilience and Urban Opportunity initiative, specifically targeting investments that advance racial equity in climate adaptation. Their program-related investments prioritize community-led resilience projects.

JPMorgan Chase has deployed $2.5 billion toward green and resilient infrastructure through its Green Economy initiative, including financing for managed retreat programs and climate-resilient affordable housing.

The Rockefeller Foundation pioneered resilience investing through its 100 Resilient Cities initiative and continues to fund climate adaptation research and implementation through its Zero Gap initiative.

Elemental Excelerator provides early-stage funding and pilot project support for climate technology companies, with particular focus on solutions deployable in vulnerable communities. Their Hawaii and California programs have incubated multiple climate migration-relevant startups.

Examples

Miami-Dade County's Resilient305 Strategy represents one of North America's most comprehensive climate adaptation frameworks, integrating climate migration projections into land use planning, affordable housing policy, and infrastructure investment. The county has invested $2.4 billion in stormwater management upgrades, elevated roadways, and building code enhancements since 2020. Critically, the strategy includes a Racial Equity Action Plan that tracks adaptation investment distribution across census tracts, revealing that historically redlined neighborhoods receive proportionally higher per-capita adaptation investment—a measurable equity outcome rather than rhetorical commitment.

The Quinault Indian Nation's Managed Retreat from Taholah, Washington provides a model for community-led relocation that centers cultural preservation and self-determination. Facing accelerating coastal erosion and tsunami risk, the tribe has undertaken a phased relocation of the village of Taholah to higher ground approximately one mile inland. The $60 million project, supported by FEMA hazard mitigation funding, HUD Community Development Block Grants, and tribal resources, prioritizes maintaining community cohesion, cultural facilities, and sovereign governance throughout the transition. The Quinault approach demonstrates that managed retreat need not mean community dissolution.

Arizona State University's Climate Adaptation Research Center has partnered with Phoenix and Maricopa County to deploy the nation's most extensive urban heat monitoring network, with 200+ sensors providing hyperlocal temperature data across socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods. This data infrastructure has revealed temperature differentials of up to 15°F between adjacent census tracts, directly informing tree planting investments, cooling center locations, and heat vulnerability indices. The project exemplifies how granular data quality enables equitable resource allocation.

Action Checklist

FAQ

Q: How do we distinguish meaningful climate migration data from measurement theater? A: Credible climate migration data exhibits several characteristics: transparent methodology available for external review, validation against observed displacement outcomes, disaggregation by demographic variables enabling equity analysis, and alignment with recognized standards such as IDMC definitions or IPCC scenario frameworks. Measurement theater typically manifests as proprietary scores without disclosed methodologies, conflation of spending metrics with outcome metrics, aggregate statistics that obscure distributional inequities, and dramatic visualizations without underlying data access. Organizations should demand that data providers submit their methodologies to peer review and demonstrate predictive validity against historical displacement events.

Q: What standards should organizations align with for climate migration disclosure? A: The emerging disclosure landscape includes SEC climate disclosure rules requiring material risk discussion, ISSB S2 standards specifying physical risk assessment requirements, and state-level mandates such as California's SB 253 and SB 261 requiring scope 3 emissions reporting and climate risk disclosure. For climate migration specifically, TCFD recommendations provide the most established framework, emphasizing scenario analysis under multiple warming pathways. Organizations operating in multiple jurisdictions should adopt a highest-common-denominator approach, meeting the most stringent applicable requirements to avoid fragmented disclosure practices.

Q: How can corporations avoid equity washing in climate adaptation investments? A: Avoiding equity washing requires moving beyond procedural compliance to measurable distributional outcomes. Concrete practices include: establishing baseline vulnerability metrics disaggregated by race, income, and geography before intervention; setting quantitative targets for adaptation benefit distribution across demographic groups; conducting independent equity impact assessments with community validation; publishing disaggregated outcome data enabling external evaluation; and compensating community members for participation in planning processes rather than relying on extractive consultation. Organizations should also acknowledge that some investments may advance operational resilience without advancing equity—this transparency is preferable to claiming equity benefits that cannot be demonstrated.

Q: What is the relationship between climate migration and Scope 3 emissions accounting? A: Climate migration affects Scope 3 emissions through multiple pathways. Workforce relocation changes commuting patterns (Category 7: Employee Commuting), supply chain disruption requires alternative sourcing with potentially different emissions profiles (Categories 1, 4, and 9), and facility relocation generates construction emissions (Category 2: Capital Goods). Organizations experiencing significant climate-driven workforce redistribution should update their Scope 3 inventories annually rather than relying on baseline estimates. Additionally, emissions from managed retreat—demolition, materials disposal, and new construction—should be accounted for in transition planning to ensure that adaptation investments do not inadvertently undermine decarbonization commitments.

Q: How should organizations prepare for insurance market disruptions driven by climate risk? A: Insurance market disruptions function as leading indicators of climate migration pressure, often preceding physical displacement by 3-5 years. Organizations should monitor carrier market participation across their property portfolios, establish relationships with surplus lines insurers and state FAIR plans as backup coverage sources, advocate for parametric insurance products that provide rapid post-event liquidity, and incorporate insurance availability scenarios into facility location decisions. For highly exposed assets, self-insurance through captive structures may provide more stable coverage than commercial markets, though this approach requires significant capital reserves and risk management sophistication.

Sources

First Street Foundation. (2024). The 8th National Risk Assessment: Climate Migration in America. Brooklyn, NY: First Street Foundation.
Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. (2025). Global Report on Internal Displacement 2025. Geneva: Norwegian Refugee Council.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2025). U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters: 2024 Summary. Washington, DC: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information.
Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2024). Community Resilience Indicator System: Technical Documentation. Washington, DC: FEMA.
Securities and Exchange Commission. (2024). The Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors: Final Rule. Washington, DC: SEC.
Environmental Defense Fund. (2024). Climate Displacement and Environmental Justice: Mapping Vulnerability Across American Communities. New York: EDF.
International Sustainability Standards Board. (2023). IFRS S2: Climate-related Disclosures. London: IFRS Foundation.
Quinault Indian Nation. (2024). Taholah Village Relocation Master Plan: Phase II Implementation Report. Taholah, WA: Quinault Indian Nation.