Sustainability Atlas
Space & Earth Observation·14 min read··...

Interview: practitioners on Orbital debris, space sustainability & regulation — what they wish they knew earlier

A practitioner conversation: what surprised them, what failed, and what they'd do differently. Focus on data quality, standards alignment, and how to avoid measurement theater.

With approximately 35,000 tracked objects orbiting Earth and an estimated 140 million debris fragments between 1 millimeter and 1 centimeter in size, the space environment has reached what the European Space Agency calls an "unsustainable" state. In 2024 alone, over 3,000 newly catalogued debris fragments were added to tracking databases, while satellites and rocket bodies now re-enter Earth's atmosphere more than three times per day on average. For US practitioners navigating this increasingly crowded orbital environment, the gap between regulatory compliance and genuine sustainability has never been wider—or more consequential.

We spoke with space sustainability professionals across the tracking, operations, and policy sectors to understand what they wish they had known earlier about data quality, standards alignment, and the persistent challenge of avoiding what one veteran operator called "measurement theater."

Why It Matters

The orbital debris problem has transformed from an academic concern to an operational crisis. According to ESA's 2025 Space Environment Report, the current Space Environment Health Index stands at 4 on a scale where 1 represents long-term sustainability—a stark indicator that current behavior patterns cannot continue without cascading consequences.

The numbers paint a compelling picture of urgency. As of early 2025, approximately 54,000 objects larger than 10 centimeters exist in orbit, including roughly 9,300 active satellites. Two-thirds of all active satellites—more than 6,000 spacecraft—operate in the congested 500-600 kilometer altitude band. In this densely populated zone, satellites face approximately 30 conjunction events (close approaches requiring assessment) per year, and debris density now equals active satellite density.

For US stakeholders, the regulatory landscape shifted significantly when the FCC's five-year deorbit rule took effect on September 29, 2024. This regulation requires satellites in low Earth orbit to dispose within five years of mission completion, replacing the previous 25-year guideline. The rule applies not only to US-licensed satellites but also to foreign operators seeking to access the US market, creating de facto global influence.

"What surprised us most," explained one tracking systems engineer, "was how quickly the conversation shifted from 'is this a problem' to 'how do we demonstrate compliance.' The FCC rule didn't create the debris challenge, but it crystallized the measurement problem. Suddenly everyone needed verifiable data, and we discovered how little consensus existed on what 'verified' actually meant."

Key Concepts

Understanding space sustainability requires familiarity with several interconnected concepts that practitioners encounter daily.

Orbital Debris encompasses any human-made object in orbit that no longer serves a useful function. This includes defunct satellites, spent rocket stages, fragmentation debris from collisions or explosions, and mission-related debris such as lens covers or separation bolts. The category ranges from paint flecks traveling at 7 kilometers per second to multi-ton rocket bodies that could trigger cascading collision events.

Traceability refers to the ability to maintain continuous knowledge of an object's identity, origin, and orbital parameters over time. Unlike terrestrial supply chains where barcodes suffice, space traceability requires continuous observation, data fusion from multiple sensor sources, and sophisticated algorithms to maintain custody of objects that may tumble, fragment, or maneuver unpredictably.

Earth Observation in this context extends beyond traditional remote sensing to include ground-based and space-based surveillance of the orbital environment itself. Radar systems track objects in low Earth orbit while optical telescopes monitor geosynchronous and deep-space regimes. The fusion of these observation modalities creates the situational awareness necessary for collision avoidance.

OPEX (Operational Expenditure) has become a critical consideration as operators discover that sustainable space operations require ongoing investment rather than one-time compliance efforts. Collision avoidance maneuvers consume propellant, reducing mission life. Tracking subscriptions represent recurring costs. Insurance premiums increasingly reflect orbital neighborhood quality.

Risk in space sustainability encompasses both probability of collision and consequence severity. A 1-in-10,000 collision probability might be acceptable for a small CubeSat but catastrophic for a human spaceflight mission. Practitioners increasingly emphasize that risk communication requires context—and that aggregating individual "acceptable" risks can produce collective outcomes no one would accept.

Geospatial Analytics applied to the space domain involves processing massive observation datasets to extract actionable intelligence about orbital objects, their trajectories, and potential interactions. Modern approaches incorporate machine learning to characterize debris spin rates, surface properties, and fragmentation histories beyond simple spherical approximations.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Commercial tracking services have matured significantly. Companies like LeoLabs now operate six radar sites with ten active radars globally, collecting over one million measurements per day and tracking more than 20,000 objects in low Earth orbit. Their phased-array radar technology can detect debris as small as 10 centimeters, providing the observation cadence necessary for meaningful conjunction assessment. In 2024, LeoLabs secured over $50 million in contracts, with defense customers now representing the majority of their business—a sign that government agencies increasingly trust commercial capabilities.

Multi-source data fusion is becoming standard practice. Privateer's Wayfinder platform aggregates tracking data from US Space Command, commercial providers, amateur observers, and satellite operators themselves into a unified visualization. By moving beyond single-source dependencies, operators gain resilience against coverage gaps and can cross-validate conjunction warnings. Their free Crow's Nest tool embeds NASA CARA (Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis) capabilities, democratizing access to collision risk assessment methodologies previously available only to major operators.

Controlled deorbit compliance has improved dramatically. ESA reports that controlled re-entries of rocket bodies outnumbered uncontrolled for the first time in 2024, with the controlled proportion increasing from 10 percent to over 65 percent over the past decade. This represents genuine behavioral change rather than measurement theater—rocket stages are being actively guided to targeted ocean disposal zones rather than abandoned to decay unpredictably.

Active debris removal has moved from concept to demonstration. Astroscale's ADRAS-J mission, launched in February 2024, became the world's first commercial mission to approach unprepared space debris, successfully achieving a historic 15-meter close approach to a defunct Japanese rocket upper stage in December 2024. In August 2024, Astroscale secured an $88 million contract from JAXA for the ADRAS-J2 mission to actually capture and deorbit the rocket body using robotic arm technology.

What Isn't Working

The 25-year post-mission disposal compliance gap remains substantial. While compliance with the 25-year rule has improved to 60-90 percent of rocket body mass in recent years, the stricter five-year standard sees global compliance approximately 10 percent lower. More concerning, even current compliance rates are insufficient to halt debris population growth. Modeling suggests that even if all launches stopped today, collisions among existing debris would continue growing the LEO population.

Standardization of risk thresholds remains fragmented. Different operators use different probability thresholds for when to perform avoidance maneuvers. Some act at 1-in-10,000 collision probability; others wait until 1-in-1,000. This inconsistency means that an approaching conjunction might trigger action from one operator while the other takes no response, potentially creating worse outcomes than consistent behavior from both parties.

Debris characterization beyond position tracking lags significantly. Knowing where an object is matters less if you cannot characterize its size, mass, tumble rate, and surface properties—all factors affecting collision consequence and capture difficulty. Most tracking catalogs still treat objects as simple spheres despite decades of evidence that fragmentation debris has complex, asymmetric geometries affecting both radar cross-section and collision dynamics.

Measurement theater persists in compliance documentation. Multiple practitioners described scenarios where companies invest substantial resources in demonstrating compliance through paperwork while operational practices remain unchanged. "We see beautifully formatted orbital debris mitigation plans," noted one regulator we interviewed, "with disposal analyses that assume propulsion systems will work perfectly fifteen years from now on satellites that have already experienced anomalies. The plans exist for license approval, not operational guidance."

Key Players

Established Leaders

Lockheed Martin Space operates the Space Fence, an S-band radar system that dramatically expanded US Space Force tracking capabilities when it achieved initial operating capability. The system can detect objects as small as a marble in low Earth orbit and contributes to the public catalog maintained by the 18th Space Defense Squadron.

Northrop Grumman demonstrated satellite life extension through its Mission Extension Vehicle program, with MEV-1 and MEV-2 successfully docking with and extending the operational life of Intelsat satellites in geostationary orbit. This approach represents an alternative to debris creation—keeping satellites functional rather than abandoning them.

Maxar Technologies provides high-resolution Earth observation data that supports debris characterization and enables optical tracking of objects too small or too distant for radar detection. Their heritage in geospatial intelligence translates directly to space domain awareness applications.

Boeing operates significant satellite manufacturing capabilities and has incorporated debris mitigation requirements into spacecraft design processes. Their experience spans commercial communications satellites, government programs, and human spaceflight systems, each with distinct debris management requirements.

Raytheon Technologies (now RTX) supplies sensors and software for space surveillance through its Intelligence & Space division, contributing radar and signal processing capabilities to both military and civil space situational awareness programs.

Emerging Startups

LeoLabs has established itself as the leading commercial provider of low Earth orbit tracking services, with a global phased-array radar network and AI-powered analytics. Their February 2024 Series B extension brought total funding to $94 million, with CEO Tony Frazier (formerly of Maxar Technologies) leading commercial expansion efforts.

Astroscale is pioneering active debris removal and on-orbit servicing with demonstrated rendezvous and proximity operations capabilities. Their ELSA-M mission, planned for 2026 launch, will offer multi-client debris removal services for satellites equipped with docking plates.

ClearSpace was awarded an €86 million ESA contract to demonstrate active debris removal with their ClearSpace-1 mission, now targeting a 2029 launch after the original target was itself struck by debris in 2023. Their four-armed robotic capture mechanism and vision-based AI represent European leadership in the sector.

Privateer Space, co-founded by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak and aerospace professor Moriba Jah, provides free basic tracking data as a public good while offering advanced analytics through their Wayfinder platform. Their Pono hosted payload launched in 2023 demonstrated on-orbit edge computing for debris characterization.

ExoAnalytic Solutions operates a global network of ground-based optical telescopes focused on geosynchronous and deep-space surveillance, filling a crucial observation gap where radar systems lack range and sensitivity.

Key Investors & Funders

Space Capital focuses on seed-stage investments in space technology, with partners who previously built and sold space companies including Skybox Imaging to Google for $500 million. Their quarterly reports tracking space investment activity have become an industry benchmark.

Seraphim Space manages over $100 million in space technology investments through venture funds and an accelerator program. Their 2024 Fund II launch with approximately $70 million marked significant expansion from earlier vehicles.

Alpine Space Ventures became the first venture capital firm to sign the ESA Zero Debris Charter, committing to measurable targets for minimizing space debris across their portfolio companies. This represents investor pressure for genuine sustainability rather than compliance theater.

In-Q-Tel provides strategic investment on behalf of the US intelligence community, funding space technologies with national security applications including debris tracking and characterization capabilities.

NASA funds debris mitigation research and technology development through programs including the Orbital Debris Program Office, while NOAA's Office of Space Commerce is developing the Traffic Coordination System for Space to provide civil space situational awareness services.

Examples

LeoLabs Defense Integration: Following contracts with the Air Force Research Laboratory and the Office of Space Commerce, LeoLabs achieved approximately 140 percent revenue growth year-over-year in 2024, booking $20 million in new contracts during the first half alone. The majority of their customer base has shifted from commercial operators to defense customers, demonstrating that national security concerns are driving investment in debris tracking capabilities. Their network now provides sufficient coverage to detect and characterize non-cooperative satellite launches within hours rather than days.

FCC Five-Year Rule Implementation: When the FCC's new deorbit requirement took effect in September 2024, operators seeking US market access faced concrete compliance requirements. Applicants must now provide Orbital Debris Mitigation Plans using NASA's Debris Assessment Software (version 3.2.5 as of February 2024) to demonstrate five-year disposal capability. Early compliance data suggests increased propellant budgets and mission design changes among operators who previously designed for 25-year timelines.

ADRAS-J Debris Characterization: Astroscale's Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan mission conducted the first commercial close-approach inspection of unprepared debris in 2024. By maneuvering to within 15 meters of a defunct H-IIA rocket upper stage and capturing high-resolution imagery, the mission provided characterization data impossible to obtain from ground-based observation. This imagery revealed surface conditions, attachment points, and tumble rates essential for planning the ADRAS-J2 capture mission—demonstrating that debris removal requires debris characterization investment.

Action Checklist

  • Audit current debris mitigation plans against FCC five-year disposal requirements before next license renewal
  • Subscribe to commercial tracking services for conjunction warnings rather than relying solely on public 18th Space Defense Squadron data
  • Establish internal thresholds for collision avoidance maneuver decisions and document rationale for those probability limits
  • Incorporate debris characterization data (tumble rate, surface properties) into risk assessments rather than treating all debris as equivalent spheres
  • Budget OPEX for ongoing collision avoidance rather than treating propellant margins as mission extension reserves
  • Require supply chain transparency on debris mitigation compliance from launch providers and hosted payload customers
  • Participate in industry working groups developing conjunction assessment standards to shape emerging norms
  • Evaluate insurance coverage for debris-related mission loss and liability for creating new debris
  • Implement post-mission disposal verification processes that confirm actual end-of-life behavior matches pre-launch plans
  • Track regulatory developments beyond the FCC including potential SEC climate disclosure requirements for space debris risk

FAQ

Q: How does the FCC five-year rule affect satellites already in orbit? A: The five-year deorbit requirement applies to satellites launched after September 29, 2024. Satellites authorized before that date under the previous 25-year guideline are not required to retroactively comply, though operators may face pressure during license modification or renewal proceedings. Applications pending as of the effective date must demonstrate five-year compliance if the satellite had not yet launched by September 30, 2024.

Q: What tracking accuracy is needed for reliable conjunction assessment? A: Meaningful collision probability calculations require position knowledge within approximately 100 meters for objects in the 500-600 kilometer altitude band where most congestion occurs. However, this accuracy degrades rapidly without regular observations. Commercial services like LeoLabs provide observation cadence sufficient to maintain custody, while gaps in coverage can allow significant uncertainty growth. Practitioners emphasize that a single accurate observation matters less than consistent observation cadence.

Q: How do operators decide when to perform collision avoidance maneuvers? A: Decision thresholds vary significantly across the industry, which practitioners identify as a key standardization gap. Some operators begin maneuver planning at 1-in-100,000 collision probability and execute at 1-in-10,000, while others wait until probabilities exceed 1-in-1,000. The lack of consensus means that an approaching conjunction between two operators might trigger action from one and inaction from the other. NASA's Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis methodology provides tools, but threshold selection remains operator-specific.

Q: What happens if active debris removal creates new debris during capture operations? A: This concern has driven mission design toward technologies that minimize fragmentation risk. Astroscale's magnetic docking system for prepared satellites and robotic arm capture for unprepared debris both emphasize controlled contact. ClearSpace's four-armed capture mechanism similarly prioritizes secure grasping before any deorbit thrust. Regulatory frameworks have yet to fully address liability allocation if removal attempts inadvertently create fragmentation, though ESA's Zero Debris Charter signatories commit to debris-neutral operations by 2030.

Q: Is Kessler Syndrome—a runaway cascade of debris collisions—already happening? A: ESA's modeling suggests that the debris population will continue growing even if all launches stopped today, driven by collisions among existing objects. However, this represents gradual degradation over centuries rather than immediate catastrophic cascade. Four confirmed collisions between catalogued objects have occurred to date, but the average fragmentation rate of 10.5 events per year includes explosions of residual propellant and batteries rather than only hypervelocity impacts. Practitioners emphasize that the goal is preventing acceleration toward the cascade threshold rather than responding to an ongoing emergency.

Sources

Topics

orbitaldebristraceabilityEarth observationopexriskgeospatial analytics

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