Sustainability Atlas
Earth Systems & Climate Science·15 min read··...

Interview: the builder's playbook for Ice sheets, glaciers & sea level rise — hard-earned lessons

A practitioner conversation: what surprised them, what failed, and what they'd do differently. Focus on utilization, reliability, demand charges, and network interoperability.

Antarctica and Greenland together lost approximately 414 gigatonnes of ice in 2024, contributing 1.2 millimetres to global sea level rise in a single year. Since 1992, ice sheets alone have added 21 millimetres to global sea levels—and their contribution has surged from 5.6% of total sea level rise in the early 1990s to over 25% today. The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced 29 consecutive years of net mass loss, while the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica—often called the "Doomsday Glacier"—is losing 45 billion tonnes annually and could trigger up to 3 metres of sea level rise if it collapses entirely. We spoke with glaciologists, remote sensing specialists, and climate adaptation practitioners to understand what they've learned building monitoring systems, deploying field instruments, and translating ice sheet science into actionable risk intelligence.

The practitioners we interviewed have collectively spent decades on ice sheets, in satellite operations centres, and advising coastal communities. Their insights reveal a field where technological capabilities are advancing rapidly, but where funding constraints, data interoperability challenges, and the sheer complexity of ice dynamics continue to humble even the most experienced teams.

Why It Matters

Global sea level rose 0.59 centimetres in 2024 alone, bringing the total increase since satellite measurements began in 1993 to 10.5 centimetres. The current rate of 3.3 millimetres per year has doubled over the past three decades and accelerated to 4.8 millimetres per year in recent years. U.S. coastal regions are projected to experience 25-30 centimetres (10-12 inches) of additional rise by 2050—regardless of emissions trajectories, as this is already locked in from past warming.

For product and design teams, the implications extend across multiple domains. Financial services require increasingly sophisticated climate risk models that incorporate ice sheet dynamics. Infrastructure planning must account for committed sea level rise that will unfold over decades. Insurance underwriting is being transformed by the need to price in tail risks from potential ice sheet instability events. And monitoring technologies—from satellite altimetry to autonomous underwater vehicles—represent a growing market for hardware and software innovation.

The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7.4 metres if fully melted. Research published in 2024 confirms that the 2000-2019 climate imbalance has already committed us to at least 274 millimetres (27.4 centimetres) of future sea level rise from Greenland alone—even if global temperatures stabilise today. Understanding ice sheet dynamics has become essential for anyone working on long-term infrastructure, coastal real estate, or climate adaptation solutions.

Key Concepts

Ice Sheet Mass Balance

The fundamental metric for understanding ice sheet health is mass balance—the difference between ice gained through snowfall and ice lost through surface melting and glacier discharge into the ocean. GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites measure these changes through gravity field variations, detecting mass shifts as small as a few gigatonnes across continental ice sheets.

"Most people think of ice sheets melting like ice cubes in a glass," explains a glaciologist with over two decades of Antarctic fieldwork. "But the majority of ice loss comes from glacier acceleration—ice flowing faster toward the ocean. Surface melt matters, but it's the dynamics that keep us awake at night."

Marine Ice Sheet Instability

West Antarctica sits on bedrock below sea level, creating conditions for marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As warm ocean water intrudes beneath floating ice shelves, it erodes the ice from below, potentially triggering runaway retreat. The Thwaites Glacier exemplifies this risk: its grounding line—where ice lifts off the bedrock and begins floating—has retreated over 14 kilometres since the 1990s.

Committed Sea Level Rise

Perhaps the most consequential concept for practitioners is committed sea level rise—the amount of increase that is effectively inevitable given current ice sheet disequilibrium. Even aggressive emissions reductions cannot prevent the sea level rise already "baked in" from historical warming and glacier dynamics already in motion.

"We're managing a portfolio of climate risks where some losses are already realised," notes a climate risk analyst. "The question isn't whether sea levels will rise, but how much we can influence the trajectory beyond what's committed."

What's Working

The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration

The most ambitious ice sheet research program in history concluded its field operations in early 2024. The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), a $50 million partnership between the U.S. National Science Foundation and UK Natural Environment Research Council, deployed over 150 scientists across eight coordinated research projects from 2018 to 2025.

"ITGC demonstrated what's possible when you properly resource glaciological research," reflects a researcher who participated in multiple field seasons. "We got the first detailed maps of Thwaites' underside using the autonomous submarine Ran, discovered subglacial lake drainage events that could accelerate instability, and fundamentally improved our understanding of ice-ocean interactions."

Key breakthroughs from ITGC include: seismic imaging revealing rocky hills and smooth plains beneath the glacier that influence ice flow; submarine mapping of extensive areas beneath 350 metres of ice; and satellite detection of ocean water intrusion between the glacier and bedrock. The collaboration's findings indicate Thwaites' retreat will accelerate through the 21st and 22nd centuries, with full West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse over this timeframe remaining possible.

Sentinel-6 and Next-Generation Altimetry

The Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite, operational since 2020, achieves sea level measurement accuracy of 2.9 centimetres for climate-quality datasets. Its Poseidon-4 synthetic aperture radar altimeter covers 95% of ice-free oceans every 10 days, providing unprecedented consistency for trend detection.

"The transition to SAR processing was transformative for coastal measurements," explains a satellite oceanographer. "Traditional altimetry struggled within 10-20 kilometres of coastlines—exactly where communities need the most accurate data. Sentinel-6 and the new IAS2024 coastal dataset with 1,548 virtual stations are closing that gap."

Sentinel-6B launched in 2025, ensuring data continuity through 2030 and beyond. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission adds high-resolution measurements of coastlines and water bodies, measuring over 90% of Earth's water surfaces.

Climate Central's Coastal Risk Tools

Climate Central's Surging Seas platform demonstrates how ice sheet science can be translated into actionable community tools. The platform provides neighbourhood-scale flood projections, property-level risk assessments, and timeline visualisations showing when specific sea level thresholds will likely be crossed.

"We learned that raw sea level data isn't useful to most decision-makers," notes a coastal resilience practitioner. "They need to understand what a 30-centimetre rise means for their specific building, their evacuation route, their insurance premium. Climate Central bridged that gap between global science and local action."

What's Not Working

Chronic Underfunding of Glaciology

Despite managing risks measured in trillions of dollars of coastal infrastructure, glaciology receives approximately $10 million annually from the U.S. National Science Foundation—roughly one-tenth of comparable scientific disciplines and about 10% of a typical blockbuster movie budget.

"We're trying to predict the behaviour of ice masses that could raise sea levels by metres using funding that wouldn't cover a single building in a flood zone," observes a senior glaciologist. "ITGC was exceptional precisely because it was exceptional—there's no successor program of comparable scope."

The funding asymmetry is particularly stark when compared to adaptation investments. The San Francisco Bay Area alone estimates needing $96 billion for sea level rise adaptation. Less than 1% of global climate finance specifically targets glacier protection or cryosphere research.

Data Interoperability Challenges

Ice sheet monitoring involves data from multiple satellite missions, ground-based sensors, and modelling systems operated by different agencies across multiple countries. Integrating these streams into coherent risk assessments remains difficult.

"We have GRACE measuring mass changes, ICESat-2 measuring surface heights, Sentinel-6 measuring sea level, and regional climate models simulating surface mass balance," explains a data systems architect. "Getting these datasets to talk to each other—with proper uncertainty quantification—is harder than it should be."

The International Altimetry Service, established in 2023, represents progress toward standardisation, but practitioners still report spending substantial time on data harmonisation rather than analysis.

Model Uncertainty for Policy-Relevant Timescales

While research has constrained some worst-case scenarios—an August 2024 Dartmouth study suggests catastrophic marine ice cliff instability at Thwaites is unlikely this century—substantial uncertainty remains for the 50-100 year planning horizons relevant to infrastructure investment.

"We can tell you with confidence that Greenland will keep losing ice. We can give you reasonable bounds on the next 30 years," acknowledges a climate modeller. "But whether West Antarctica contributes 30 centimetres or 3 metres by 2150 depends on ice dynamics we don't fully understand and emissions pathways we can't predict."

This uncertainty creates challenges for practitioners who need to make decisions today about infrastructure with 50-100 year lifespans.

Key Players

Established Leaders

  • British Antarctic Survey (BAS) — UK lead institution for ITGC, operating extensive Antarctic research infrastructure including Rothera Research Station. Coordinates international polar science programs and maintains long-term ice monitoring datasets.

  • National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) — U.S. data centre managing ice sheet, glacier, and cryosphere datasets. Operates Ice Sheets Today public monitoring portal and houses ITGC data archive. Based at University of Colorado CIRES.

  • NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) — Develops and operates key satellite missions including GRACE-FO for ice mass measurements and SWOT for surface water observation. Maintains NASA Sea Level Change Portal.

  • European Space Agency (ESA) / Copernicus — Operates Sentinel satellite constellation including Sentinel-6 for sea level and Sentinel-3 for ice sheet monitoring. Copernicus Marine Service provides integrated ocean and ice indicators.

  • Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) — UK-based global data bank maintaining tide gauge records, some spanning over 100 years. Essential for calibrating satellite measurements and understanding local sea level variability.

Emerging Startups

  • Jupiter Intelligence — Climate risk analytics platform incorporating sea level rise, flood prediction, and extreme weather modelling. Serves insurers, real estate, and infrastructure sectors with forward-looking risk assessments.

  • Cryosphere Innovation — Develops hardware and software for environmental data collection in polar environments. Products designed to streamline field deployment and discovery in challenging cryosphere conditions.

  • Climate Central — Nonprofit operating Surging Seas platform for coastal flood risk visualisation. Translates sea level science into neighbourhood-scale impact assessments and planning tools.

  • Smart Seawall Technologies — Fort Lauderdale-based company developing modular seawalls that absorb wave energy and support marine habitats. Products designed for 75-100 year lifespans versus 20-50 years for traditional seawalls.

Key Investors & Funders

  • U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) — Primary funder of U.S. Antarctic and Greenland research. Co-funded $50M ITGC program. Operates Antarctic research infrastructure.

  • UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) — UK counterpart to NSF for environmental science. ITGC co-funder, supports British Antarctic Survey operations.

  • Green Climate Fund — UN mechanism supporting climate adaptation in developing countries. Funded Pakistan GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) early warning systems and other cryosphere-related adaptation projects.

  • European Investment Bank — Major funder of climate adaptation infrastructure in Europe. Provides financing mechanisms for coastal resilience projects incorporating sea level rise projections.

Action Checklist

  1. Establish baseline sea level exposure: Use NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer or Climate Central Surging Seas to assess current and projected flood exposure for assets, supply chains, and customer bases. Document which scenarios represent committed versus emissions-dependent outcomes.

  2. Integrate ice sheet dynamics into long-term planning: For infrastructure with 50+ year lifespans, incorporate scenarios beyond IPCC central estimates. The 274mm committed rise from Greenland alone should be treated as a floor, not a ceiling, for planning purposes.

  3. Subscribe to monitoring data feeds: Access NASA Sea Level Change Portal, NSIDC Ice Sheets Today, and Copernicus ice sheet indicators for regular updates. Set alerts for anomalous melt seasons or rapid glacier acceleration events.

  4. Build relationships with research institutions: Universities and agencies with polar research programs—British Antarctic Survey, NSIDC, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution—can provide early insights into emerging findings before publication.

  5. Assess coastal sensor deployment opportunities: Low-cost ultrasonic and IoT water level sensors enable dense monitoring networks for storm surge and extreme events. Citizen science networks can provide data density that satellite coverage cannot match.

  6. Model financial exposure to ice sheet uncertainty: Develop scenario-based assessments that span the range of credible ice sheet contributions—from the committed minimum to potential rapid discharge scenarios. Test portfolio resilience across this range.

  7. Engage with standard-setting bodies: As climate disclosure requirements expand, contribute to development of sea level rise scenario standards and coastal resilience metrics. Early engagement shapes frameworks that may become mandatory.

  8. Track glacier geoengineering proposals: Concepts like the proposed $80 billion underwater curtain for Thwaites may seem speculative, but could influence future policy and investment landscapes. Monitor pilot studies and feasibility assessments.

FAQ

Q: How reliable are projections of ice sheet contribution to sea level rise over the next 50-100 years?

A: The reliability varies significantly by ice sheet and timeframe. For Greenland, projections through 2050 are relatively well-constrained because surface melting dominates the mass balance, and climate models handle this reasonably well. The 2000-2019 climate has already committed us to at least 274mm of eventual sea level rise from Greenland alone—this is high-confidence. Antarctica is more uncertain because marine ice sheet instability could trigger non-linear acceleration. The ITGC findings suggest Thwaites is unlikely to catastrophically collapse this century, but continued acceleration is expected. For planning purposes, treat central estimates as guidelines but stress-test against higher scenarios. The recent confirmation that even 1.5°C warming is "too high" for ice sheet stability suggests we should plan for outcomes toward the upper range of projections.

Q: What are the most important monitoring technologies for tracking ice sheet changes?

A: The current monitoring stack relies on complementary technologies. GRACE-FO satellites measure mass changes through gravity field variations—essential for understanding total ice loss. ICESat-2 measures surface height changes with centimetre precision, tracking both snow accumulation and ice loss. Sentinel-6 measures sea level itself, providing the downstream signal of ice melt. Regional climate models (MAR, RACMO) simulate surface mass balance. Increasingly, autonomous underwater vehicles like the Ran submarine used at Thwaites provide direct observations of ice-ocean interfaces that satellites cannot see. For practitioners, the NSIDC Ice Sheets Today portal and NASA Sea Level Change Portal integrate these data streams into accessible formats. The IAS2024 coastal dataset specifically addresses the previously problematic coastal zone with 1,548 virtual stations.

Q: How should organisations with long-lived coastal assets approach sea level rise uncertainty?

A: The key insight from practitioners is distinguishing committed versus emissions-dependent sea level rise. The first 30-40 centimetres of rise this century is effectively inevitable regardless of future emissions—this should be treated as a planning certainty, not a scenario. Beyond that, scenarios diverge significantly based on emissions trajectories and ice sheet dynamics. For assets with 50+ year lifespans, robust decision-making approaches are more appropriate than optimising for a single projection. This means designing for adaptability—infrastructure that can be elevated, relocated, or protected as conditions evolve. It also means stress-testing against credible high-end scenarios (2+ metres by 2100) even if they're not the central estimate. The San Francisco Bay Area's $96 billion adaptation estimate suggests that early investment in resilience often costs less than reactive responses to damage.

Q: Is glacier geoengineering a realistic option for slowing sea level rise?

A: Glacier geoengineering proposals exist but remain highly speculative. The most prominent is a proposed 80-kilometre underwater curtain to block warm water from reaching Thwaites Glacier, estimated to cost around $80 billion. Pilot studies with 100-metre to 1-kilometre biodegradable curtains are planned over the next 2-3 years. Practitioners are divided: some see these as essential options to preserve given the inadequacy of emissions reductions alone; others worry about moral hazard and diversion of resources from mitigation. The ITGC findings that Thwaites instability is unlikely to cause catastrophic collapse this century slightly reduce the urgency, but the glacier's continued acceleration means intervention concepts will likely receive increasing attention. For now, geoengineering should be monitored as a potential future factor rather than incorporated into planning assumptions.

Q: Why does cryosphere research receive so little funding relative to the risks involved?

A: This funding paradox frustrates practitioners deeply. Glaciology receives roughly $10 million annually from NSF—about one-tenth of comparable disciplines—despite informing projections for trillions of dollars in coastal assets. Several factors contribute: ice sheets operate on timescales that exceed political cycles; the research requires expensive polar logistics; and unlike some climate impacts, ice sheet changes feel geographically and temporally distant to most decision-makers. The exceptional funding for ITGC demonstrated what's possible with proper resourcing, but there's no comparable successor program. The UN's declaration of a Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences (2025-2034) may improve visibility, but practitioners emphasise that monitoring and research budgets remain fundamentally misaligned with the risks being managed.

Sources

The practitioners we interviewed consistently emphasised one message: the science of ice sheets and sea level rise has advanced dramatically, but the translation into policy, infrastructure planning, and risk management lags behind. The tools exist—satellite monitoring, coastal risk platforms, scenario frameworks—but deploying them effectively requires sustained investment in both research and application. For product and design teams working on climate adaptation, the ice sheet domain offers both cautionary lessons about uncertainty and inspiring examples of international scientific collaboration at its best.

Topics

icesheetsradiative forcingsea levelextremesbenchmark KPIstransition plan

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