Market map: Food & household consumption choices — the categories that will matter next

Food and household consumption account for approximately 60% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 50-80% of total resource use when measured across supply chains, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. For the average consumer, dietary choices alone represent 10-30% of their personal carbon footprint—making the kitchen table one of the most consequential decision points in the climate transition. As regulatory pressure intensifies, consumer awareness grows, and technology enables granular impact tracking, the food and household consumption sector stands at an inflection point that will reshape markets over the next 12-24 months.

Why It Matters

The convergence of consumer behavior shifts, regulatory mandates, and corporate net-zero commitments has transformed household consumption from a peripheral sustainability concern into a central strategic priority. The numbers underscore this urgency: global household final consumption expenditure reached $56 trillion in 2024, with food, beverages, and household goods comprising roughly 35% of that total. The carbon intensity embedded in these purchases varies by a factor of 50x between comparable products—a grass-fed beef steak generates 60 kg CO2e while a plant-based alternative produces approximately 1.2 kg CO2e.

The plant-based food market grew to $29.4 billion globally in 2024, expanding at a 12% compound annual growth rate despite inflationary headwinds, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Meanwhile, the sustainable household products category—spanning cleaning supplies, personal care, and home goods—reached $150 billion, with "eco-label" products commanding 8-15% price premiums in developed markets. This growth reflects substantive shifts: 67% of global consumers now report considering environmental impact when making food purchases, up from 52% in 2020, per Nielsen IQ data.

Regulatory drivers are accelerating these trends. The European Union's Green Claims Directive, effective 2026, will require companies to substantiate environmental assertions with standardized methodologies and third-party verification. France mandated carbon labeling for food products beginning in 2024, with Germany and the Netherlands implementing similar schemes by 2025. In North America, the SEC's climate disclosure rules and California's SB 253 are extending scope 3 emissions reporting requirements that will cascade down supply chains to consumer products manufacturers.

For procurement professionals and market strategists, these dynamics create both risk exposure and opportunity capture. Categories that matter most in 2025-2026 include: plant-based proteins and alternative dairy; carbon-labeled packaged foods; sustainable cleaning and personal care; food waste reduction technologies; and digital tools enabling consumer behavior change at scale.

Key Concepts

Carbon Footprint of Food Choices

Food system emissions encompass production (fertilizers, livestock, land use change), processing, transportation, retail, consumption, and waste. Life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies standardized under ISO 14040/14044 provide the analytical framework, though significant variability exists in boundary definitions and allocation methods. The EAT-Lancet Commission established planetary health dietary benchmarks: a reference diet generating <2.5 kg CO2e daily, requiring substantial reductions in red meat consumption (by 50% globally) and increased consumption of plant-based proteins, fruits, and vegetables.

Embodied Emissions in Household Products

Household goods carry embedded carbon from raw material extraction, manufacturing, packaging, and distribution. Cleaning products typically range from 0.5-2.0 kg CO2e per unit, while personal care products span 0.3-4.5 kg CO2e depending on formulation complexity and packaging materials. The emerging Product Environmental Footprint (PEF) methodology in the EU provides standardized category rules (PEFCRs) enabling cross-product comparison—a critical enabler for informed consumer choice and regulatory compliance.

Sustainable Consumption Frameworks

Academic frameworks distinguish between efficiency (same outcome, fewer resources), sufficiency (reduced consumption), and consistency (closed-loop systems). Behavioral economics has introduced the concept of "choice architecture"—structuring decision environments to facilitate sustainable choices without restricting options. This includes default settings, social norming, and friction reduction for sustainable alternatives.

Eco-Labels and Certification Schemes

The eco-label landscape includes over 450 certification schemes globally, creating both guidance and confusion. Credible certifications in food include USDA Organic, Rainforest Alliance, Marine Stewardship Council (MSC), and the newer Foundation Earth carbon scoring system. For household products, key certifications include EPA Safer Choice, EU Ecolabel, and Cradle to Cradle. Research indicates that simplified, traffic-light style labels outperform detailed numerical scores in driving consumer behavior change.

Nudge Interventions

Behavioral interventions proven effective in shifting consumption patterns include: default menu options (plant-based as standard); strategic product placement (sustainable options at eye level); social proof messaging (showing peer choices); and real-time feedback systems (displaying carbon impact during shopping). Meta-analyses indicate nudge interventions achieve 5-20% shifts in target behaviors, with effects persisting beyond the intervention period in 40-60% of cases.

Sustainable Consumption KPIs by Category

Metric	Food & Beverage	Household Products	Digital Platforms
Carbon intensity reduction YoY	8-12%	5-10%	N/A (enabling)
Sustainable SKU share	15-25%	20-30%	N/A
Consumer engagement rate	18-32%	12-22%	35-55%
Price premium tolerance	10-18%	8-15%	Subscription model
Label recognition rate	45-65%	35-50%	App downloads
Repeat purchase rate	55-72%	48-65%	Monthly active users
Supply chain transparency	>60% tier 1	>50% tier 1	Data completeness
Greenwashing complaint rate	<2%	<3%	<1%

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Plant-Based Protein Mainstreaming: The category has successfully transitioned from niche health food to mainstream grocery, with plant-based alternatives now occupying dedicated sections in 85% of major retailers globally. Taste parity improvements, particularly in the alternative dairy segment (oat milk achieving 95% consumer satisfaction vs. traditional dairy), have driven adoption beyond the vegan demographic. In the UK, 39% of households now regularly purchase plant-based milk alternatives.

Carbon Labeling Pilots Generating Actionable Data: Retailer-led carbon labeling initiatives—including Tesco's partnership with Foundation Earth in the UK and Albert Heijn's carbon scoring in the Netherlands—have generated robust consumer response data. Average basket carbon intensity decreased 4-7% in pilot stores, with particularly strong response among consumers aged 25-44. The key success factor: simplified A-E scoring systems rather than precise gram-level CO2e figures.

Meal Kit Sustainability Integration: Companies like HelloFresh and Gousto have successfully positioned portion-controlled, pre-measured ingredients as a food waste reduction mechanism. HelloFresh reports 25% lower food waste compared to conventional grocery shopping, with meal kits increasingly featuring carbon footprint data per serving. The subscription model enables longitudinal behavior tracking and personalized sustainability recommendations.

Digital Tools Enabling Personal Carbon Tracking: Applications including Joro, Yuka, and Giki Zero have achieved significant adoption (Yuka alone claims 50 million global users), enabling consumers to scan product barcodes and receive instant sustainability ratings. These tools have demonstrated 15-25% shifts in purchasing behavior among active users, with particularly strong impact in categories where sustainable alternatives exist at comparable price points.

What Isn't Working

Label Fatigue and Consumer Confusion: With 450+ eco-labels competing for attention, consumers report declining trust and engagement. Research from the European Commission indicates only 35% of consumers can correctly interpret more than three eco-labels, with 52% reporting they "tune out" sustainability claims due to information overload. The proliferation of company-specific sustainability metrics further compounds confusion.

Greenwashing Undermining Credibility: High-profile greenwashing cases—including enforcement actions against misleading "carbon neutral" claims by major food manufacturers—have eroded consumer trust. The European Consumer Organisation (BEUC) documented a 340% increase in greenwashing complaints between 2020-2024. Vague claims ("eco-friendly," "sustainable," "natural") without substantiation dominate the market, with 53% of environmental claims analyzed by the European Commission found to be unsubstantiated or misleading.

Rebound Effects Negating Efficiency Gains: Efficiency improvements in sustainable products are frequently offset by increased consumption—the classic Jevons paradox applied to consumer goods. Lower-calorie plant-based snacks lead to increased snacking frequency; more efficient cleaning products lead to more frequent cleaning cycles. Studies indicate 20-40% of efficiency gains are consumed by rebound effects in household product categories.

Behavior Change at Scale Remains Elusive: Despite significant investment in nudge interventions and awareness campaigns, aggregate consumption patterns show limited change. Global meat consumption increased 2.8% in 2024, and household product consumption per capita continues rising in developing economies. The gap between stated environmental intentions (67% of consumers) and consistent sustainable purchasing behavior (<15% of purchase occasions) represents the sector's central challenge.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Oatly — Swedish oat milk pioneer that catalyzed the alternative dairy category, achieving $722 million revenue in 2024. Their integrated sustainability messaging and manufacturing transparency set category standards.

Beyond Meat — Leading plant-based meat company with products in 190,000+ retail and foodservice locations globally. Despite recent valuation pressures, their R&D capabilities and retail distribution network remain formidable.

Danone — Multinational food corporation with substantial alternative protein portfolio (Alpro, Silk) and science-based emissions reduction commitments across its dairy and plant-based divisions.

Unilever — Consumer goods giant with comprehensive sustainable sourcing commitments and brands including Seventh Generation (household) and The Vegetarian Butcher (food). Their Sustainable Living Brands portfolio grew 69% faster than rest of business.

Nestlé — Largest food company globally, with significant investments in plant-based (Garden Gourmet), regenerative agriculture, and carbon footprint labeling pilots across European markets.

Emerging Startups

Karma (Sweden) — Food waste reduction app connecting consumers with surplus restaurant and grocery food at discounted prices. Over 5 million users and 30,000+ partner locations, demonstrating circular economy model viability.

Yuka (France) — Product scanning app providing instant health and environmental ratings. 50+ million global users, with proven influence on consumer purchasing decisions and manufacturer reformulation behavior.

Joro (USA) — Personal carbon footprint tracking app linking to financial transactions, enabling automated impact measurement without manual logging. Raised $20 million to expand behavioral insights and offsetting integration.

NotCo (Chile) — AI-driven plant-based food company using machine learning to optimize ingredient combinations for taste and sustainability. Expanded to 11 countries with backing from Jeff Bezos.

Apeel Sciences (USA) — Edible coating technology extending produce shelf life by 2-3x, reducing food waste at retail and consumer levels. Deployed across major retailers in North America and Europe.

Key Investors & Funders

Blue Horizon — Zurich-based venture capital firm focused exclusively on alternative proteins, with $600+ million deployed across the sustainable food value chain.

Breakthrough Energy Ventures — Bill Gates-backed fund investing in climate solutions including sustainable food systems, agricultural technology, and food waste reduction.

Temasek Holdings — Singapore sovereign wealth fund with substantial alternative protein portfolio, leading investment rounds for Impossible Foods, Perfect Day, and other category leaders.

European Investment Bank — Public financing arm supporting sustainable food and circular economy initiatives, with €2.5 billion committed to food system transformation through 2027.

Examples

Tesco Carbon Labeling Rollout (UK): Britain's largest retailer partnered with Foundation Earth to implement A-E carbon scoring across 100+ own-brand products beginning in 2024. Results from pilot stores showed 6.2% reduction in average basket carbon intensity, with consumers actively switching from D/E rated products to A/B alternatives in comparable categories (ready meals, dairy). The methodology—based on simplified life cycle assessment—has been adopted by competing retailers, establishing de facto industry standards ahead of regulatory mandates.

Too Good To Go Surplus Food Network: The Danish startup operates in 17 countries, connecting 75+ million consumers with surplus food from 155,000 partner businesses. In 2024, the platform saved 250 million meals from waste, equivalent to 625,000 tonnes CO2e avoided. Their "Magic Bag" model—where consumers purchase surprise surplus food at 1/3 price—demonstrates viable unit economics while achieving measurable environmental impact. Average user engagement: 12 purchases annually.

Unilever Clean Future Program: The consumer goods giant's commitment to eliminate fossil-fuel-derived carbon from cleaning product formulations by 2030 has driven reformulation across its $10 billion home care portfolio. Progress to date: 60% reduction in virgin plastic use, 45% of formulations now bio-based or recycled-carbon derived. Third-party verification through independent LCA provides credibility that manufacturer self-claims lack. The initiative demonstrates how upstream reformulation can achieve systemic impact beyond consumer choice architecture.

Action Checklist

• Conduct portfolio carbon intensity assessment using standardized LCA methodology (ISO 14067 or GHG Protocol Product Standard) across all food and household product categories
• Implement tiered eco-labeling strategy: simplified consumer-facing scores backed by detailed methodology documentation for regulatory and B2B contexts
• Establish supplier transparency requirements for scope 3 emissions data, targeting 80% coverage of tier 1 suppliers within 18 months
• Deploy A/B testing for sustainable product placement and default options across retail channels, measuring basket-level carbon intensity shifts
• Integrate carbon impact data into digital shopping experiences (apps, e-commerce) to enable real-time consumer feedback
• Develop greenwashing prevention protocols including legal review, third-party verification, and claims substantiation documentation
• Create behavior change measurement frameworks tracking the gap between stated intentions and actual purchasing patterns
• Establish food waste reduction targets and measurement systems across retail operations and consumer-facing guidance

FAQ

Q: How can organizations distinguish credible sustainability claims from greenwashing in procurement decisions? A: Prioritize claims backed by third-party certification from recognized bodies (Foundation Earth, EPA Safer Choice, EU Ecolabel) rather than self-declared assertions. Request underlying methodology documentation including LCA scope, system boundaries, and data sources. Verify that comparative claims use equivalent functional units and time periods. The upcoming EU Green Claims Directive provides a useful framework: claims must be substantiated by recognized scientific evidence, account for full product lifecycle, and identify whether they apply to the entire product or specific aspects.

Q: What is the business case for carbon labeling given current consumer engagement rates? A: While direct sales uplift from carbon labeling remains modest (2-5% in most studies), the strategic value lies in regulatory compliance preparation, supply chain efficiency identification, and brand positioning. Companies implementing carbon labeling now gain 18-24 month advantages in data infrastructure and supplier engagement ahead of EU Green Claims Directive requirements. Additionally, carbon footprinting frequently identifies cost reduction opportunities through efficiency improvements—studies show 15-30% of carbon reduction measures have negative or neutral cost.

Q: How should organizations balance the tension between sustainability messaging and concerns about consumer price sensitivity? A: Research indicates that price premium tolerance varies significantly by category and consumer segment. Essential categories (staple foods, cleaning basics) show 5-10% premium tolerance, while discretionary categories (specialty foods, personal care) support 15-25% premiums. Effective strategies include: highlighting co-benefits (health, quality, local sourcing) alongside environmental attributes; offering sustainable options at comparable price points through reformulation rather than premium positioning; and using sustainability messaging to justify existing price points rather than justifying premiums.

Q: What regulatory changes should organizations prepare for over the next 24 months? A: Priority preparations include: EU Green Claims Directive compliance (substantiation methodology, third-party verification requirements) effective 2026; Scope 3 emissions reporting under SEC climate disclosure rules and California SB 253; potential carbon labeling mandates following French and German precedents; Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) expansion covering packaging and product end-of-life in multiple jurisdictions; and deforestation-free product requirements under the EU Deforestation Regulation becoming enforceable in 2025.

Q: How can digital tools be leveraged to drive behavior change beyond early adopters? A: Scaling beyond the 15-20% of consumers who actively seek sustainability information requires embedded integration rather than opt-in applications. Effective approaches include: default carbon footprint display in e-commerce checkout flows; loyalty program integration where sustainable purchases earn enhanced rewards; gamification elements that normalize competition around sustainability metrics; and personalized recommendations based on purchase history that gradually shift baskets toward lower-impact alternatives without requiring active consumer research.

Sources

• United Nations Environment Programme, "Global Resources Outlook 2024: Bend the Trend," March 2024
• Bloomberg Intelligence, "Plant-Based Foods Market Outlook 2024," January 2024
• Nielsen IQ, "Global Consumer Sustainability Survey 2024," June 2024
• European Commission, "Environmental Claims Study: Prevalence and Characteristics," 2024 Update
• EAT-Lancet Commission, "Food in the Anthropocene: The EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems," Lancet, 2019
• Foundation Earth, "Carbon Labeling Impact Assessment: Retail Partner Data 2023-2024," October 2024
• Behavioural Insights Team, "Shifting Diets at Scale: A Meta-Analysis of Nudge Interventions," 2024
• The European Consumer Organisation (BEUC), "Greenwashing Complaints Tracker 2020-2024," December 2024