Operational playbook: scaling Carbon capture, utilization & storage (CCUS) from pilot to rollout

Global CCUS capacity reached approximately 50 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in early 2025—yet this represents less than 0.2% of annual global CO₂ emissions. The project pipeline tells a more compelling story: 628 projects announced in 2024 (15% year-over-year growth), with capacity projections of 430-435 Mtpa by 2030 according to the IEA. However, historical completion rates expose a sobering reality: only 12% of announced CCUS projects since 2010 have reached operational status. For founders and project developers navigating this landscape, the gap between announcement and operation represents the critical challenge—and opportunity—of our time. This playbook provides the operational framework for moving CCUS projects from pilot validation to commercial rollout.

Why It Matters

The mathematics of decarbonization increasingly point to CCUS as unavoidable rather than optional. The International Energy Agency estimates that reaching net-zero by 2050 requires capturing 6 gigatonnes of CO₂ annually—roughly 100 times current operational capacity. For hard-to-abate sectors including cement (8% of global emissions), steel (7%), and chemicals (4%), CCUS represents one of few viable decarbonization pathways.

Policy frameworks have shifted dramatically. The US Inflation Reduction Act's enhanced 45Q tax credits now provide $85/tonne for geological storage and $180/tonne for direct air capture—creating clear economic viability for high-purity capture applications. Europe's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and emissions trading prices above €80/tonne generate parallel incentives. China announced targets for 50 Mtpa capture capacity by 2030. The regulatory tailwinds are unprecedented.

Yet the 88% project failure rate demands explanation. Analysis of cancelled projects reveals consistent patterns: inadequate storage access (25% of failures), financing gaps at scale-up (35%), cost overruns during construction (20%), permitting delays (12%), and technology underperformance (8%). This playbook addresses each failure mode with operational protocols developed from successful project implementations.

Key Concepts

The Three-Phase Rollout Model

CCUS scale-up follows a distinct three-phase pattern, each with different risk profiles and capital requirements:

Phase 1: Pilot Validation (0-50,000 tonnes/year) Technology demonstration at industrial conditions. Primary goal: prove capture rates, energy penalty, and operational reliability match design specifications. Capital requirements: $10-50M depending on source type. Timeline: 18-36 months. Key metric: 6-month sustained capture rate performance.

Phase 2: Commercial Demonstration (50,000-500,000 tonnes/year) First commercial-scale plant with integrated transport and storage. Primary goal: validate full-chain economics and de-risk EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contracts. Capital requirements: $100-400M. Timeline: 3-5 years. Key metric: LCCS (Levelized Cost of Capture and Storage) within 20% of projections.

Phase 3: Multi-Site Rollout (500,000+ tonnes/year) Replication across multiple facilities with shared infrastructure. Primary goal: achieve learning curve cost reductions and infrastructure utilization. Capital requirements: $500M-2B+ for hub development. Timeline: 5-10 years. Key metric: 15-25% cost reduction versus Phase 2.

Critical Path Dependencies

The scale-up pathway contains sequential dependencies that cannot be parallelized:

Storage characterization must precede capture FID (Final Investment Decision)
EPA Class VI permits (US) or equivalent require 2-4 years lead time
Transport infrastructure (pipelines, shipping) often constrains capture deployment
Offtake agreements must be secured before project financing closes

Projects that attempt to shortcut these dependencies consistently fail. Northern Lights (Norway) succeeded precisely because Equinor invested €500M+ in storage characterization and transport infrastructure before signing capture agreements.

Revenue Stacking Architecture

Commercial viability typically requires layering multiple revenue streams:

Revenue Source	Value ($/tonne CO₂)	Availability	Certainty
45Q Tax Credit (US)	$85-180	12 years	High
EU ETS Allowances	$80-100	Continuous	Medium (price volatility)
Voluntary Carbon Markets	$10-40 (standard) / $200-600 (premium DAC)	Variable	Low to High
Enhanced Oil Recovery	$20-40	Declining long-term	Medium
Product Premiums (green steel, cement)	$30-100	Emerging	Medium
Contracts for Difference (CfD)	Variable	Government-dependent	High once secured

Successful projects layer 2-3 revenue sources to achieve bankable economics. Reliance on single revenue streams introduces unacceptable risk.

What's Working

Industrial Clusters with Shared Infrastructure

The highest-performing CCUS deployments aggregate multiple emission sources around shared transport and storage infrastructure. This model reduces per-tonne costs by 20-35% versus standalone projects while de-risking capture investments through guaranteed storage access.

Case evidence: Rotterdam's Porthos project connects 4 industrial emitters to common offshore storage, achieving €45/tonne transport and storage costs versus €65-80/tonne for standalone solutions. UK Humber and Teesside clusters follow similar architectures with 15+ industrial partners each.

The infrastructure-first model inverts traditional project development: build storage and transport capacity, then sell capacity access to emitters. This approach shifts storage risk from individual capture projects to infrastructure operators with stronger balance sheets.

High-Purity Source Targeting

Ethanol fermentation, natural gas processing, and ammonia production generate concentrated CO₂ streams requiring minimal separation. Capture costs for these sources range $15-35/tonne versus $65-130/tonne for dilute streams (power generation, cement).

Case evidence: Summit Carbon Solutions' Midwest network targets 12 ethanol facilities with estimated capture cost of $22-28/tonne. At $85/tonne 45Q credit, projects generate $55-60/tonne margin before transport and storage.

Strategic prioritization: capture the cheapest CO₂ first. Building operational track record and infrastructure on economic projects creates foundation for harder applications.

Modular and Standardized Equipment

Traditional CCUS projects required custom engineering for each installation, driving costs and timeline overruns. Next-generation developers deploy standardized, modular capture units that reduce engineering time by 40-60% and enable factory-quality manufacturing.

Case evidence: Carbon Clean's CycloneCC modular units achieve 90%+ capture rates in 50% smaller footprint than conventional systems. Deployment timeline: 12-18 months versus 36-48 months for custom installations.

Advanced Procurement Strategies

Direct air capture developers pioneered advance market commitments (AMCs) that provide demand certainty before construction. Frontier Climate's $1B+ commitment from Stripe, Shopify, Meta, and Google enables DAC developers to secure project financing against contracted offtake.

For industrial capture, long-term offtake agreements with creditworthy buyers (utilities, oil majors, governments) provide similar financing security. Norway's Northern Lights secured 15-year storage agreements before construction began.

What's Not Working

Power Sector Post-Combustion at Scale

Despite decades of development, coal and gas power capture projects continue underperforming. SaskPower's Boundary Dam operates at 40-50% of design capture rates. Petra Nova (US) suspended operations after 3 years due to low oil prices undermining EOR economics.

The fundamental challenge: capturing CO₂ from power generation competes against avoiding emissions entirely via renewables. With solar LCOE below $30/MWh and wind below $40/MWh in most markets, new fossil capacity with capture struggles economically.

Remaining viable power CCUS applications: retrofit of existing long-lived assets, grid backup/peaking roles, and regions with limited renewable resources. New-build power CCUS is increasingly difficult to justify.

Announcement Without Execution

The 88% attrition rate from announcement to operation reflects systematic over-promising. Analysis of 2020-2024 project announcements reveals common patterns:

Announcements made without secured storage access
Optimistic timelines ignoring permitting realities
Technology claims unsupported by operational data
Financing assumptions dependent on unfinalized policy

Red flags for investors: absence of storage contracts, no Class VI permit application filed, FID timeline less than 18 months from announcement, capture cost claims below demonstrated technology ranges.

Utilization Pathways Without Permanence

"CCU" (utilization) often provides climate benefits measured in months rather than millennia. CO₂ converted to synthetic fuels re-enters the atmosphere when burned. CO₂ used in greenhouses or carbonated beverages releases within hours to days.

Legitimate permanent utilization pathways exist—mineral carbonation, concrete aggregates, and certain polymer applications—but represent small fraction of utilization claims. Projects claiming climate benefits from non-permanent utilization mislead investors and undermine sector credibility.

Underestimating Transport and Storage Complexity

Capture technology receives disproportionate attention while transport and storage—often 40-60% of total project cost—receive insufficient planning. Common failures:

Assuming pipeline right-of-way will be available
Underestimating storage characterization requirements
Ignoring pressure management for shared storage
Failing to account for CO₂ specification requirements

Key Players

Established Leaders

Equinor — Norwegian energy major with 25+ years CCUS experience operating Sleipner (1996) and Snøhvit projects. Lead developer of Northern Lights cross-border storage infrastructure. 35-40% market share in offshore storage.
ExxonMobil — Operates 1,500+ miles of CO₂ pipelines across Gulf Coast with 120M+ tonnes captured to date. Developing major hubs including Louisiana and Baytown with combined 10+ Mtpa capacity.
Shell — Partner in Northern Lights and Quest (Alberta). Extensive experience integrating capture with refinery and petrochemical operations. Polaris and Atlas hub developments in Canada targeting 6+ Mtpa.
SLB Capturi — 80/20 joint venture between SLB and Aker Carbon Capture focused on industrial decarbonization. First modular carbon capture plant operational in Netherlands (2025). Brevik cement plant capture operational at 400k tonnes/year.

Emerging Startups

Climeworks — Swiss DAC leader with 9,000+ tonnes/year operational capacity across Orca and Mammoth facilities in Iceland. Raised $1B+ total funding including $162M round in 2025. Developing 1 Mtpa Cypress facility in Louisiana with DOE support.
Carbon Clean — UK-based modular capture specialist with 49 deployments capturing 1.7M+ tonnes. CycloneCC rotating packed bed technology achieves 90%+ capture in compact footprint. Recent deployments at Heidelberg Materials and industrial sites across Asia.
Heirloom Carbon — Enhanced weathering and mineral carbonation using limestone. First commercial DAC facility operational in US (2023). Backed by Microsoft and Breakthrough Energy Ventures. Target: <$100/tonne by 2030.
Svante — Vancouver-based developer of rotary adsorption machines (RAMs) for industrial capture. $100M investment from Canada Growth Fund (2024). Focus on cement and hydrogen applications.

Key Investors & Funders

US Department of Energy — $3.5B DAC hubs program plus $8B hydrogen hubs with CCUS components. Class VI permitting acceleration initiatives. 45Q implementation guidance.
Breakthrough Energy Ventures — $2B+ fund backed by Bill Gates investing across DAC, industrial capture, and storage technologies. Portfolio includes CarbonCapture Inc., Heirloom, and Mosaic Materials.
Frontier Climate — $1B+ advance market commitment from Stripe, Shopify, Meta, Google, and McKinsey. Purchases carbon removal at $200-600/tonne, providing demand signal for DAC developers.
BigPoint Holding / Partners Group — Co-led Climeworks' $162M 2025 round, the largest single investment in carbon removal technology.

Examples

1. Northern Lights (Norway): World's first commercial cross-border CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure. Developed by Equinor (operator), Shell, and TotalEnergies with €2.7B total investment. Phase 1 capacity: 1.5 Mtpa, expandable to 5 Mtpa. Receives CO₂ from Heidelberg Materials' Brevik cement plant and Hafslund Oslo waste-to-energy facility via ship transport. Stores in Johansen formation 2,600 meters below North Sea seabed. Operational 2024. Key success factors: infrastructure-first development, government cost-sharing (€1.7B Norwegian state contribution), and multi-emitter business model.

2. Archer Daniels Midland Illinois Basin (US): Largest saline aquifer storage project in North America. Captures 1.1 Mtpa from ethanol fermentation at Decatur facility. Capture cost: ~$25/tonne (high-purity CO₂ from fermentation). Storage: Mount Simon sandstone formation at 7,000 feet depth. Operational since 2017 with 5M+ tonnes stored. Demonstrated monitoring, verification, and reporting protocols that informed EPA Class VI permitting guidance. Key success factors: high-purity source, favorable geology, DOE partnership for storage characterization.

3. Climeworks Mammoth (Iceland): World's largest direct air capture facility at 36,000 tonnes/year capacity. Uses geothermal energy for low-carbon operation. Storage via Carbfix mineral carbonation—CO₂ reacts with basalt to form stable carbonates within 2 years of injection. Cost: $800-1,200/tonne at current scale. Revenue: premium offtake agreements with Microsoft, Stripe, and BCG at $600-1,000/tonne. Key success factors: Iceland's unique combination of geothermal energy and basalt geology, premium voluntary market positioning, advance purchase commitments enabling financing.

Action Checklist

Complete storage characterization before capture FID — Secure detailed geological assessment, capacity estimates, and preliminary permits for CO₂ storage. Projects without storage assurance face 3x higher failure rates.
File Class VI permit applications 24+ months before construction — EPA Class VI permits average 2-4 years. Start permitting process parallel to front-end engineering to avoid schedule delays.
Structure revenue stacking agreements — Layer 45Q, ETS allowances, and/or offtake agreements to achieve minimum $80/tonne revenue certainty. Single revenue stream dependence introduces unacceptable risk.
Negotiate transport capacity or develop infrastructure partnerships — Pipeline access or shipping contracts must be secured before capture investment. Consider infrastructure-first hub models for multi-site deployments.
Establish MRV (Measurement, Reporting, Verification) protocols early — Comprehensive monitoring systems are increasingly required by regulators, credit buyers, and insurers. Build monitoring infrastructure during construction, not post-commissioning.
Pursue modular and standardized equipment — Factory-manufactured modular units reduce timeline risk and enable faster iteration on capture technology.
Build in 20% cost contingency minimum — Historical projects average 25-40% cost overruns. Conservative contingency planning protects project viability.
Develop phased investment approach — Stage capital deployment across pilot, commercial demonstration, and rollout phases with decision gates between each phase.

FAQ

Q: What is the minimum viable scale for commercial CCUS projects? A: For industrial capture with pipeline transport, 100,000-200,000 tonnes/year represents the minimum scale where per-tonne infrastructure costs become competitive. For hub models with shared transport/storage, individual capture facilities can be smaller (25,000-50,000 tonnes/year) if aggregated. DAC facilities are reaching commercial viability at 36,000-40,000 tonnes/year (Mammoth scale), though economics improve significantly at 100,000+ tonnes/year.

Q: How should emerging market developers approach CCUS given limited policy support? A: Focus on three strategies: (1) target export markets with established carbon prices—Indonesia's Tangguh project stores CO₂ while exporting LNG to price-sensitive markets; (2) leverage international climate finance mechanisms including World Bank CCUS funds and bilateral agreements; (3) prioritize enhanced oil recovery where it provides near-term revenue while building capture expertise. Voluntary carbon markets increasingly provide premium pricing ($50-200/tonne) for high-quality removal with strong MRV.

Q: What are the realistic timelines from project conception to operation? A: Pilot facilities: 18-36 months from FID to operation. Commercial-scale single-site projects: 4-6 years including permitting and construction. Multi-site hub developments: 7-12 years for full buildout. These timelines assume parallel workstreams (permitting during engineering) and no major regulatory changes. Projects in jurisdictions without established permitting frameworks should add 2-3 years for regulatory development.

Q: How do we assess technology readiness for different capture approaches? A: Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) provide useful framework. Post-combustion amine scrubbing: TRL 9 (commercially proven). Solid sorbents and membranes: TRL 6-7 (demonstration scale, approaching commercial). Direct air capture (liquid solvent): TRL 8-9 (commercial with cost reduction needed). Direct air capture (solid sorbent): TRL 7-8 (early commercial). Electrochemical capture: TRL 4-5 (pilot demonstration). For project planning, require TRL 8+ for primary technology with TRL 6-7 acceptable for non-critical components.

Q: What financing structures work for CCUS projects? A: Most successful projects combine: (1) government grants or cost-sharing (30-50% of capex for first-of-kind); (2) project finance against contracted offtake (45Q monetization, storage agreements); (3) corporate balance sheet for established developers. Pure project finance remains challenging given technology and policy risk. Advance market commitments (Frontier model) enable DAC financing by providing demand certainty. UK CfD (Contract for Difference) model provides 15-year price certainty that enables infrastructure investment.

Sources

International Energy Agency, "CCUS Projects Database and Progress Report," November 2024
Global CCS Institute, "Global Status of CCS 2024," October 2024
US Department of Energy, "Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: A Roadmap for U.S. Deployment," December 2024
European Commission, "Carbon Removal Certification Framework Technical Guidance," 2024
BloombergNEF, "CCUS Market Outlook 2024-2035," September 2024
Rhodium Group, "Carbon Capture Investment Tracker Q4 2024," December 2024
Nature Climate Change, "Direct Air Capture Cost Trajectories and Scale-Up Requirements," July 2024
McKinsey & Company, "Scaling Carbon Capture: From Pilot to Commercial Reality," November 2024