Sustainable aviation & shipping KPIs by sector (with ranges)
The 5–8 KPIs that matter, benchmark ranges, and what the data suggests next. Focus on data quality, standards alignment, and how to avoid measurement theater.
Aviation and maritime shipping produced over 1.1 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 2024, with container shipping alone hitting a record-breaking 240.6 million tonnes—a 14% year-over-year increase driven by Red Sea crisis diversions. These sectors, responsible for nearly 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions and transporting 80% of world trade by volume, face mounting regulatory pressure as the IMO's Net-Zero Framework enters force in 2027 and EU ETS expansion covers maritime from 2024 onward (Climate Policy Initiative, 2024; IMO, 2025).
For investors seeking to distinguish genuine decarbonization leaders from greenwashing, the challenge lies in identifying which KPIs actually predict operational and financial success. This analysis delivers the 5–8 metrics that matter, their benchmark ranges, and the data quality standards necessary to avoid measurement theater.
Why It Matters
The sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market exploded from $1.04 billion in 2024 to a projected $15.85 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 57.5% (Grand View Research, 2025). Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization's April 2025 agreement established the Global Fuel Standard requiring ships to reduce fuel GHG intensity by 4–17% starting 2028, with penalties ranging from $100 to $380 per tonne CO₂ for non-compliance.
These regulatory and market shifts create asymmetric opportunities. Companies that can demonstrate credible emissions reductions—verified through robust measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems—will capture premium pricing, preferential financing, and regulatory advantages. Those relying on opaque metrics or unverified claims face stranded asset risk, regulatory penalties, and reputational damage.
The aviation sector already reveals this bifurcation. Airlines paid a $2.9 billion premium for 1.9 million tonnes of SAF in 2025, with standard SAF commanding $1.4 billion in premiums and market distortions adding another $1.5 billion (SkyNRG/ICF Market Outlook, 2025). Understanding which KPIs correlate with actual emissions reductions—versus those that enable greenwashing—determines whether these premiums represent genuine value creation or wealth transfer.
Key Concepts
Aviation KPI Framework
Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Blend Rate measures the percentage of SAF in total jet fuel consumption. The 2025 baseline shows less than 1% global adoption, with regulatory mandates pushing toward 2% (UK) and 5–10% (EU ReFuelEU) by 2030. Industry leaders target 10–15% blend rates by 2030.
| KPI | Current Average | Leading Edge | 2030 Target | Measurement Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAF Blend Rate (%) | <1% | 3–5% | 10–15% | Quarterly |
| CO₂e per RTK (grams) | 850–950 | 650–750 | 400–500 | Annual |
| Fleet Fuel Efficiency Improvement (% YoY) | 1.5–2.0% | 2.5–3.5% | 3.0–4.0% | Annual |
| Scope 3 Upstream Emissions Verification (%) | 15–25% | 60–80% | 95%+ | Annual |
| Carbon Offset Quality Score (1–5) | 2.1 | 4.0+ | 4.5+ | Per Transaction |
| Ground Operations Electrification (%) | 25–35% | 70–85% | 90%+ | Semi-Annual |
CO₂e per Revenue Tonne Kilometer (RTK) captures operational efficiency across both passenger and cargo operations. Current industry averages range from 850–950 grams, with leading airlines achieving 650–750 grams through fleet modernization and operational optimization.
Fleet Fuel Efficiency Improvement tracks year-over-year gains from new aircraft, retrofits, and operational procedures. The industry averages 1.5–2.0% annual improvement; hitting net-zero by 2050 requires sustained 3.0–4.0% gains alongside SAF adoption.
Maritime KPI Framework
The IMO's revised GHG strategy establishes clear benchmarks: 20–30% total emissions reduction by 2030 (versus 2008), 40% carbon intensity reduction by 2030, and net-zero by 2050 (IMO, 2023). These translate into vessel-level and fleet-level KPIs.
| KPI | Current Average | Leading Edge | 2030 Target | Measurement Standard |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII Rating) | C–D | A–B | A–B | IMO CII Methodology |
| Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) | Compliance | 15–20% below required | 30%+ below required | IMO EEXI |
| Alternative Fuel Capacity (% fleet) | 5–8% | 25–35% | 50%+ | DNV Classification |
| Well-to-Wake GHG Intensity (gCO₂e/MJ) | 85–95 | 45–65 | <40 | ISO 14064 |
| Shore Power Utilization (% port calls) | 10–15% | 50–70% | 80%+ | Berth Records |
| Onboard Carbon Capture Deployment (% applicable vessels) | <1% | 5–10% | 15–20% | Technology Registry |
Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) rates vessels A through E based on CO₂ emissions per capacity-distance. Ships rated D for three consecutive years or E in any year face mandatory corrective action plans. Current fleet distribution shows 40% at C rating, with leading operators maintaining 60–70% A–B rated vessels.
Well-to-Wake GHG Intensity represents the life-cycle approach now mandated by the IMO's Global Fuel Standard. This holistic metric captures upstream production, transport, and combustion emissions—essential for preventing fuel-switching that merely shifts emissions rather than reducing them.
What's Working
Integrated MRV Platforms
Maersk's fleet-wide deployment of real-time emissions monitoring across 700+ vessels demonstrates the operational value of granular data. Their ECO Delivery program, launched in 2024, provides customers with verified emissions data per shipment, enabling Scope 3 reporting and driving premium pricing for low-carbon logistics.
Air France-KLM's partnership with TotalEnergies for 1.5 million tonnes of SAF through 2035 includes embedded verification protocols, chain-of-custody documentation, and third-party auditing. This structure addresses the "book-and-claim" controversy by ensuring physical delivery of SAF rather than merely purchasing certificates (Air France-KLM Sustainability Report, 2024).
DNV's Maritime Decarbonization Hub provides standardized benchmarking across 10,000+ vessels, enabling investors to compare fleet performance against peer groups and regulatory trajectories. Their data shows vessels investing in energy efficiency devices achieve 8–15% fuel savings with 3–5 year payback periods.
Regulatory-Driven Transparency
The EU ETS extension to maritime (January 2024) forced unprecedented emissions disclosure. Ships over 5,000 gross tonnage entering EU ports must now surrender allowances covering 40% of 2024 emissions by September 2025, rising to 100% by 2027. This regulatory stick created immediate data infrastructure investments.
What's Not Working
Carbon Offset Quality Crisis
The voluntary carbon market's credibility collapse directly impacts aviation. CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) approved credits now face scrutiny after investigations revealed 85%+ of rainforest protection credits may not represent real emissions reductions (The Guardian/Verra Investigation, 2023). Airlines reporting offset-based neutrality claims without transitioning to SAF face increasing litigation risk.
Measurement Theater in Maritime
Container shipping's 2024 emissions spike—despite industry net-zero pledges—reveals the gap between commitments and operational reality. The Red Sea diversions added 18% to transport work, overwhelming efficiency gains. Fleet operators reporting carbon intensity improvements while actual emissions increased exemplify the measurement theater investors must identify.
Data Fragmentation
Aviation and maritime lack unified emissions accounting standards. Airlines report under CORSIA, CDP, TCFD, and various regional frameworks with inconsistent boundaries, allocation methodologies, and verification requirements. Investors comparing company disclosures often compare non-comparable figures.
Key Players
Established Leaders
Maersk operates the world's largest fleet of methanol-capable vessels (25 ordered, 8 operational as of 2025) and has invested $1.4 billion in green methanol production facilities. Their ECO Delivery program covers 300+ customers representing 35% of container volume.
Neste controls 40%+ of global SAF production capacity. Their December 2024 agreement with Air New Zealand (30 million liters) and Air Canada (60,000 tonnes) demonstrates market-making scale. The company's Singapore expansion adds 1 million tonnes annual SAF capacity.
GE Aerospace provides LEAP and GEnx engines powering 60%+ of new narrowbody and widebody deliveries. Their CFM RISE program targets 20%+ fuel efficiency improvement for next-generation engines entering service ~2035.
Emerging Startups
Prometheus Fuels uses direct air capture and electrochemistry to produce carbon-neutral e-fuels. Their partnership with American Airlines provides pilot-scale SAF with verified carbon-negative production pathways.
Aider develops AI-powered voyage optimization, claiming 5–12% fuel savings through weather routing, speed optimization, and trim adjustment. Their platform serves 200+ vessels across major shipping lines.
Seabound deploys onboard carbon capture systems for container vessels. Their technology captures up to 95% of stack emissions, with captured CO₂ stored for offshore sequestration. Pilot projects with MSC and OOCL demonstrate commercial readiness.
Key Investors & Funders
Breakthrough Energy Ventures has deployed $250 million+ into sustainable aviation, including investments in ZeroAvia (hydrogen-electric propulsion), Electra Aero (hybrid-electric aircraft), and Prometheus Fuels.
Global Maritime Forum coordinates the Poseidon Principles, aligning $185 billion in shipping finance with IMO decarbonization trajectories. Signatory banks now require CII disclosures for fleet financing.
US Department of Energy committed $2.4 billion to SAF through the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) and DOE Loan Programs Office, including $1.46 billion to Gevo for corn-to-SAF production.
Examples
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Lufthansa Group's SAF Strategy: Lufthansa's partnership with TotalEnergies commits to 2 million tonnes of SAF annually by 2030, representing 15%+ of projected fuel consumption. Their investment includes equity stakes in three SAF production facilities and long-term offtake agreements exceeding €1 billion. Early data shows 2–3% ticket price premiums fully absorbed by corporate customers with Science-Based Targets (Lufthansa Sustainability Report, 2024).
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CMA CGM's LNG Transition: The world's third-largest container line operates 44 LNG-powered vessels with 90+ on order. While LNG reduces CO₂ by 20–25% versus heavy fuel oil, methane slip concerns persist. CMA CGM's transparency in reporting both CO₂ and methane emissions—including well-to-wake methodology—sets benchmarks for honest communication about transitional fuels' limitations.
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Singapore Airlines' Book-and-Claim Program: SIA's SAF certificate program, launched 2024, allows corporate customers to purchase verified SAF attributes regardless of physical fuel delivery location. The program includes Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB) certification, chain-of-custody documentation, and third-party verification—addressing greenwashing concerns while enabling global SAF market development.
Action Checklist
- Audit current emissions reporting against IMO CII and CORSIA methodologies to identify boundary inconsistencies
- Establish baseline well-to-wake emissions intensity for both aviation and maritime exposures using ISO 14064-compliant methodology
- Request CII ratings and EEXI compliance data from maritime portfolio companies; benchmark against DNV fleet averages
- Evaluate SAF supply agreements for physical delivery versus certificate-based claims; prioritize RSB or ISCC certification
- Assess stranded asset risk for vessels rated D or E under CII; model regulatory penalty exposure under IMO 2028 implementation
- Engage portfolio companies on Scope 3 upstream emissions verification, particularly for SAF feedstock pathways (HEFA vs. FT-SPK vs. PtL)
FAQ
Q: How should investors evaluate SAF claims when production remains less than 1% of jet fuel consumption? A: Focus on three elements: (1) verified physical delivery versus book-and-claim certificates, (2) feedstock pathway—HEFA from waste oils offers proven scalability while power-to-liquid remains pre-commercial, and (3) long-term offtake agreements with creditworthy producers like Neste or TotalEnergies. Airlines with binding purchase agreements exceeding 5% of 2030 fuel demand demonstrate serious commitment versus aspirational targets.
Q: What CII trajectory should investors expect from well-managed shipping portfolios? A: Leading operators maintain 60–70% of vessels at A–B ratings, with clear capital expenditure plans addressing C-rated vessels within 24 months. Any D or E ratings require immediate corrective action plans. Investors should expect 5–7% annual CII improvement through 2030, achieved through speed reduction, retrofit installations, and fleet renewal.
Q: How do EU ETS costs affect maritime investment theses? A: At current carbon prices (€65–80/tonne), EU ETS adds $5–15 per TEU for Asia-Europe container routes. Operators with A-rated fleets pay 30–40% less than D-rated competitors—a structural margin advantage compounding annually as phase-in reaches 100%. Model this as permanent margin differential when evaluating fleet operators.
Q: What data quality standards distinguish credible from unreliable emissions reporting? A: Require third-party verification (DNV, Lloyd's, Bureau Veritas), consistent boundary definitions (operational vs. financial control), and time-series data showing methodology continuity. Red flags include year-over-year methodology changes coinciding with improved metrics, exclusion of significant emission sources, and reliance on industry averages rather than measured data.
Sources
- Grand View Research. (2025). Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report.
- SkyNRG & ICF. (2025). Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2025.
- International Maritime Organization. (2025). MEPC 83 Outcome: IMO Net-Zero Framework.
- Climate Policy Initiative. (2024). Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2024.
- DNV. (2025). Maritime Forecast to 2050.
- Xeneta. (2025). Record-Breaking Carbon Emissions in Ocean Container Shipping.
- IATA. (2025). SAF Production Growth Rate Analysis.
- EU Commission. (2024). Reducing Emissions from the Shipping Sector.
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