Trend analysis: Resilient supply chains — where the value pools are (and who captures them)

In 2024, global supply chain disruptions cost businesses an estimated $182 billion in direct losses, with emerging markets bearing a disproportionate 43% of these impacts despite representing only 28% of global trade volumes. As climate volatility intensifies and geopolitical fragmentation accelerates, supply chain resilience has evolved from an operational nice-to-have into a strategic imperative that determines which organizations—and which regions—capture the $1.2 trillion value pool projected to emerge from resilience-focused investments by 2027. For sustainability leads operating in emerging markets, understanding where these value pools concentrate and who is positioned to capture them represents a critical strategic lens for the next 12–24 months.

Why It Matters

The significance of resilient supply chains extends far beyond operational continuity. According to the World Economic Forum's 2025 Global Risks Report, supply chain disruption ranks among the top five risks for emerging economies, with 67% of surveyed executives in these regions citing it as their primary operational concern. The interconnection between supply chain resilience and broader sustainability goals—including climate adaptation, public health outcomes, and socioeconomic equity—makes this domain uniquely positioned at the intersection of enterprise value creation and systemic transformation.

The statistics from 2024-2025 paint a compelling picture. McKinsey's Global Supply Chain Resilience Survey revealed that companies with advanced resilience capabilities achieved 23% higher EBITDA margins during disruption events compared to their less-prepared peers. In emerging markets specifically, the International Finance Corporation documented that resilience investments yielded 2.4x returns compared to 1.7x in developed economies—a premium that reflects both the higher baseline vulnerability and the greater marginal utility of protective measures.

The emerging markets context introduces unique dynamics. These regions often serve as critical nodes in global supply networks—Vietnam processes 18% of the world's electronics components, Bangladesh manufactures 7% of global apparel, and Brazil supplies 26% of global soy exports. Yet these same regions face amplified exposure to climate risks, infrastructure gaps, and regulatory uncertainty. The 2024 Asian Development Bank report identified that Southeast Asian supply chains alone faced $47 billion in climate-related disruption costs, with projections suggesting a 340% increase by 2035 under current trajectories.

The value pools emerging from this landscape concentrate in three primary areas: technology platforms enabling visibility and prediction (projected at $340 billion by 2027), physical infrastructure investments in alternative routing and redundancy ($520 billion), and financial instruments including parametric insurance and trade finance innovation ($290 billion). Understanding who captures these pools—incumbents, new entrants, or regional players—will shape the competitive landscape for the next decade.

Key Concepts

Resilient Supply Chain Architecture

A resilient supply chain extends beyond traditional efficiency optimization to incorporate adaptive capacity, redundancy, and rapid recovery capabilities. The conceptual framework distinguishes between resistance (ability to withstand disruption), responsiveness (speed of detection and reaction), and recovery (time to restore normal operations). In emerging markets, resilience architecture must additionally account for informal economy integration, limited infrastructure redundancy, and currency volatility.

Supply Chain Equity

Equity in supply chain contexts addresses the distribution of both risks and benefits across value chain participants. Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers in emerging markets frequently absorb disproportionate disruption costs while capturing minimal value from resilience investments. The concept encompasses fair contract terms, access to financing, capability building support, and transparent risk-sharing mechanisms. Research from the Ethical Trading Initiative found that supply chains with higher equity scores demonstrated 31% faster recovery times following disruptions.

Climate-Linked Supply Chain Risk

This encompasses both physical risks (extreme weather events, sea-level rise affecting ports, water stress impacting manufacturing) and transition risks (carbon pricing, regulatory shifts, changing consumer preferences). The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures framework increasingly requires organizations to quantify and disclose these risks, with emerging markets suppliers facing growing pressure to demonstrate climate resilience credentials to maintain buyer relationships.

Public Health Supply Chain Integration

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed critical interdependencies between supply chain resilience and public health outcomes. This concept addresses the integration of health security considerations into supply chain design, including pharmaceutical distribution networks, medical equipment supply, and worker health protection infrastructure. In emerging markets, where healthcare systems often depend heavily on imported supplies, this integration carries heightened significance.

Benchmark KPIs and Standards

The emerging consensus around resilience measurement includes metrics such as Time-to-Recover (TTR), Supplier Risk Score aggregation, Visibility Index (percentage of supply chain with real-time tracking), and Diversification Ratio (concentration risk across geographies and suppliers). Standards bodies including ISO and the Sustainability Consortium have accelerated work on resilience frameworks, with ISO 28000 series updates expected in late 2026.

KPI Category	Metric	Emerging Markets Benchmark	Top Quartile Performance
Recovery Speed	Time-to-Recover (TTR)	21-35 days	<14 days
Visibility	Real-time Tracking Coverage	45-60%	>85%
Diversification	Single-Source Dependency	35-50% of components	<20% of components
Financial Resilience	Working Capital Buffer	45-60 days	>90 days
Supplier Risk	Average Supplier Risk Score	55-65 (scale 0-100)	<40
Climate Exposure	Physical Risk-Adjusted Routes	2-3 alternatives	>5 alternatives
Transparency	ESG Data Coverage of Suppliers	30-45%	>75%

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Multi-tier visibility platforms with AI-driven prediction: Companies deploying advanced supply chain visibility solutions are demonstrating measurable resilience improvements. Unilever's deployment of end-to-end visibility across its Southeast Asian sourcing network reduced disruption response time by 67% in 2024. The integration of machine learning models that predict disruptions 2-4 weeks in advance—drawing on satellite imagery, social media signals, and logistics data—has proven particularly valuable in emerging markets where traditional information channels may be unreliable.

Regional manufacturing hub development: The "China+1" strategy has evolved into more sophisticated regional hub architectures. Vietnam, Mexico, and India have emerged as primary beneficiaries, with foreign direct investment in manufacturing resilience infrastructure reaching $89 billion in 2024 across these three countries alone. Organizations pursuing this approach report 40% reduction in single-point-of-failure exposure while maintaining cost competitiveness through local ecosystem development rather than simple geographic relocation.

Collaborative supplier financing and capacity building: Forward-thinking organizations are recognizing that resilience depends on supplier ecosystem health. Nestlé's supplier financing program in West Africa, which provides preferential rates tied to resilience capability development, has supported 340 suppliers in implementing business continuity measures since 2023. The program demonstrates a 23% improvement in supplier-level disruption resistance while strengthening long-term commercial relationships.

Parametric insurance innovation: Traditional insurance products poorly address supply chain disruption risks in emerging markets. Parametric solutions—triggered by objective measures such as port closure days, rainfall deviation, or transport corridor blockages—have gained significant traction. Swiss Re's 2024 emerging markets supply chain parametric portfolio grew 156% year-over-year, with average claim settlement times of 14 days compared to 90+ days for traditional policies.

What Isn't Working

Technology-first approaches without operational integration: Many organizations have invested heavily in supply chain technology platforms but failed to integrate these capabilities into operational decision-making processes. A 2025 Gartner survey found that 58% of emerging markets supply chain technology implementations delivered less than 30% of projected value due to poor change management and siloed deployment.

Over-reliance on audit-based supplier risk assessment: Traditional supplier audits—often conducted annually and focused on compliance rather than resilience—provide inadequate signals for supply chain risk management. The 2024 collapse of several audited-as-compliant suppliers in the Turkey earthquake demonstrated the limitations of point-in-time assessment approaches.

Insufficient attention to Tier-2 and Tier-3 visibility: While Tier-1 supplier visibility has improved significantly, the majority of disruptions originate deeper in supply networks. Research from MIT's Center for Transportation and Logistics found that 73% of supply chain disruptions in 2024 originated at Tier-2 or beyond, yet average visibility at these levels remains below 25% even for sophisticated organizations.

Underinvestment in workforce resilience capabilities: Physical infrastructure and technology investments often overshadow human capital development. Organizations in emerging markets frequently lack the trained personnel to operate resilience systems effectively, with 62% of surveyed companies reporting skills gaps as a primary barrier to resilience improvement.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Maersk: The Danish shipping and logistics giant has invested $12 billion in supply chain resilience infrastructure since 2022, including alternative routing capabilities, port infrastructure in emerging markets, and end-to-end visibility platforms. Their Twill digital platform specifically targets SME exporters in developing economies.

Siemens: Through its supply chain management software division and extensive manufacturing footprint, Siemens has emerged as both a practitioner and enabler of supply chain resilience. Their Digital Industries division provides resilience planning tools used by over 4,000 enterprises globally.

Cargill: As one of the world's largest agricultural commodity traders, Cargill has developed sophisticated climate-resilient sourcing networks across Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, backed by $8 billion in resilience-related investments over the past five years.

DHL Supply Chain: DHL's emerging markets network spans 180 countries with dedicated resilience operations centers in Singapore, Dubai, and São Paulo that provide 24/7 disruption monitoring and response coordination.

Schneider Electric: With 40% of manufacturing operations located in emerging markets, Schneider has developed best-in-class supplier ecosystem resilience programs, including the Supplier Risk Observatory covering 65,000 suppliers globally.

Emerging Startups

Altana AI (USA/Singapore): This supply chain intelligence platform uses AI to map extended supply networks and identify hidden risks. Their emerging markets focus has attracted $200 million in funding through 2025, with particular strength in electronics and automotive sectors.

Everstream Analytics (Germany): Specializing in predictive supply chain risk management, Everstream's platform integrates climate, geopolitical, and operational risk signals to provide early warning capabilities. Their 2024 expansion into Latin American and African markets positions them for emerging markets growth.

Tradeshift (Denmark/India): This B2B trade network platform focuses on supply chain financing and digitization for emerging markets suppliers, with 2.5 million connected businesses and $1.1 trillion in transaction value processed in 2024.

Interos (USA): Operating in the supply chain risk and relationship intelligence space, Interos provides mapping and monitoring of extended supply networks with particular strength in compliance and resilience use cases across emerging markets manufacturing.

Project44 (USA): A visibility platform tracking over 1 billion shipments annually, Project44 has expanded aggressively into emerging markets with localized solutions for regional logistics challenges and infrastructure constraints.

Key Investors & Funders

International Finance Corporation (IFC): The World Bank's private sector investment arm has deployed $3.4 billion in supply chain resilience investments across emerging markets since 2022, with a particular focus on climate-smart logistics infrastructure.

Temasek Holdings: Singapore's sovereign wealth fund has made supply chain resilience a strategic priority, with notable investments in logistics infrastructure, fintech platforms, and manufacturing capabilities across Southeast Asia.

Breakthrough Energy Ventures: Bill Gates' climate-focused fund has invested in multiple supply chain decarbonization and resilience technologies, recognizing the intersection between climate action and supply chain transformation.

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB): AIIB has committed $15 billion through 2027 for trade corridor and logistics infrastructure projects that enhance regional supply chain resilience across Asia.

Proparco: The French development finance institution has prioritized sustainable supply chain investments in Africa and Southeast Asia, with $1.2 billion deployed in related projects during 2024.

Examples

1. Vietnam Electronics Manufacturing Resilience Program

Following severe supply disruptions during 2023 typhoon season, the Vietnam Electronics Industry Association partnered with Intel, Samsung, and local government authorities to implement a comprehensive regional resilience program. The initiative established three backup power microgrids serving 47 manufacturing facilities, developed alternative logistics routing through northern ports, and deployed a shared early warning system integrating meteorological and logistics data. Results after 18 months of operation show a 71% reduction in average disruption duration, $340 million in avoided disruption costs, and 23% improvement in foreign buyer confidence scores. The program has attracted $890 million in follow-on manufacturing investment as companies explicitly cite resilience infrastructure in location decisions.

2. Kenya Fresh Produce Cold Chain Enhancement

Kenya's horticultural export sector—worth $1.4 billion annually—faced chronic disruption from cold chain failures affecting 18-22% of produce. A public-private partnership led by the Kenya Export Promotion Council, with investment from IFC and operational support from Maersk, implemented a technology-enabled cold chain solution spanning 340 kilometers from growing regions to Nairobi's Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. The system incorporates solar-powered cold storage facilities, IoT-enabled temperature monitoring, and predictive maintenance capabilities. Post-implementation metrics demonstrate a reduction in cold chain losses from 20% to 6%, average product shelf life extension of 4.2 days, and farmer income improvements of 34% through reduced spoilage and premium pricing for quality-verified produce.

3. Mexico Nearshoring Supply Chain Infrastructure

The Nuevo León state government in Mexico has capitalized on nearshoring trends by developing comprehensive supply chain resilience infrastructure targeting US-bound manufacturing. The "Resilience Corridor" initiative, launched in late 2023, includes redundant rail connections, cross-border truck processing capacity expansion, bonded warehouse facilities with climate control, and a digital trade facilitation platform reducing customs processing from 72 hours to 8 hours. Through 2025, the corridor has attracted 78 new manufacturing facilities representing $4.3 billion in investment and 34,000 jobs. Supply chain metrics show 94% on-time delivery performance compared to 81% before the initiative, with disruption recovery times averaging 3.2 days versus the regional benchmark of 11 days.

Action Checklist

FAQ

Q: How should organizations prioritize supply chain resilience investments across different emerging markets regions? A: Prioritization should integrate three dimensions: strategic importance (revenue exposure, growth potential, supplier criticality), risk exposure (climate vulnerability, infrastructure reliability, regulatory stability), and investment efficiency (cost-to-impact ratio, existing capabilities, partnership opportunities). Organizations should develop a matrix scoring each region across these dimensions and sequence investments accordingly. Generally, regions combining high strategic importance with high risk exposure and favorable investment efficiency should receive priority. However, portfolio considerations matter—extreme concentration in any single region, regardless of its individual attractiveness, introduces systemic vulnerability that warrants geographic diversification.

Q: What is the appropriate balance between efficiency and resilience in supply chain design? A: The historical framing of efficiency versus resilience as a trade-off is increasingly outdated. Research demonstrates that well-designed resilience investments often improve efficiency metrics by reducing variability, enabling better planning, and preventing costly disruption recovery. The key insight is distinguishing between productive efficiency (minimizing waste under normal conditions) and allocative efficiency (optimizing resource deployment across scenarios). Supply chains optimized purely for productive efficiency often exhibit poor allocative efficiency when conditions change. The emerging best practice involves establishing minimum resilience thresholds—such as maximum single-source dependency, minimum visibility coverage, and recovery time targets—as constraints within which efficiency optimization occurs.

Q: How can smaller organizations operating in emerging markets achieve supply chain resilience without enterprise-scale resources? A: Resource constraints require creative approaches. First, prioritize ruthlessly—identify the 15-20% of supply chain components that represent 80% of disruption risk and focus resilience investments there. Second, leverage collaborative infrastructure—industry associations, trade corridor authorities, and development finance initiatives increasingly provide shared resilience capabilities accessible to SMEs. Third, pursue technology solutions designed for resource-constrained environments—cloud-based visibility platforms with subscription pricing, mobile-first supplier communication tools, and simplified risk assessment frameworks. Fourth, embed resilience requirements into supplier relationships rather than building redundant capabilities—requirements for suppliers to maintain their own business continuity plans and demonstrate resilience credentials.

Q: What regulatory developments should sustainability leads monitor for supply chain resilience implications? A: Several regulatory trajectories warrant attention. The EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, fully effective by 2026, imposes supply chain responsibility requirements that effectively mandate visibility and risk management capabilities. Climate disclosure regulations, including SEC rules and ISSB standards, increasingly require quantification of supply chain climate risks. Border carbon adjustment mechanisms in the EU and under consideration elsewhere will reshape competitive dynamics for emerging markets suppliers. Additionally, critical minerals legislation in major economies is creating compliance requirements and incentive structures affecting electronics, automotive, and clean energy supply chains. Sustainability leads should establish regulatory monitoring protocols and engage proactively with emerging compliance requirements rather than treating them as reactive constraints.

Q: How do public health considerations integrate with supply chain resilience strategy? A: The pandemic demonstrated that public health events can trigger supply chain disruptions more severe and prolonged than traditional natural disaster or geopolitical scenarios. Integration occurs at multiple levels. Operationally, supply chain resilience planning should incorporate pandemic scenario modeling, workforce health protection infrastructure, and healthcare supply chain dependencies. Strategically, organizations should assess supplier concentration in regions with weaker public health infrastructure, evaluate pandemic preparedness as a supplier selection criterion, and maintain strategic inventory buffers for critical inputs vulnerable to health-related disruption. Additionally, organizations with significant emerging markets supply chain footprints have both ethical obligations and practical incentives to support supplier workforce health capabilities—investments that directly enhance operational resilience while advancing broader development objectives.

Sources

World Economic Forum. "Global Risks Report 2025." Geneva: WEF, January 2025.
McKinsey & Company. "Global Supply Chain Resilience Survey 2024." McKinsey Global Institute, March 2025.
International Finance Corporation. "Resilience Investing in Emerging Markets: Returns and Impact Analysis." Washington, DC: IFC, November 2024.
Asian Development Bank. "Climate and Trade: Supply Chain Vulnerability in Southeast Asia." Manila: ADB, August 2024.
MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. "State of Supply Chain Sustainability 2025." Cambridge, MA: MIT, February 2025.
Gartner, Inc. "Supply Chain Technology Value Realization: Emerging Markets Analysis." Stamford, CT: Gartner, January 2025.
Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. "Status Report 2024." Basel: Financial Stability Board, October 2024.
Swiss Re Institute. "Parametric Solutions for Supply Chain Risk: Global Market Report." Zurich: Swiss Re, December 2024.