Trend watch: Catalysis & electrochemistry for decarbonization in 2026 — signals, winners, and red flags

The green hydrogen market surged to $7.98 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $60.56 billion by 2030 at a staggering 38.5% CAGR—yet the fundamental electrochemical reactions enabling this growth remain the critical bottleneck where scientific breakthroughs translate (or fail to translate) into industrial reality. Catalysis and electrochemistry represent the molecular-scale engineering determining whether hydrogen costs $10/kg (current green hydrogen) or approach fossil fuel parity at $1.50-2.00/kg. For organizations tracking decarbonization pathways, understanding these enabling technologies separates informed strategy from wishful thinking.

Why It Matters

The chemical industry accounts for 24% of global CO₂ emissions, making it one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonize. Traditional thermochemical processes—operating at high temperatures and pressures using fossil fuel feedstocks—are deeply embedded in manufacturing everything from fertilizers to plastics. Electrochemical alternatives powered by renewable electricity offer a fundamentally different pathway: converting molecules at ambient conditions using carefully designed catalysts.

For UK stakeholders specifically, the intersection of catalysis and electrochemistry touches multiple strategic priorities. The UK Hydrogen Strategy targets 10 GW of low-carbon hydrogen production capacity by 2030. The offshore wind buildout creates abundant renewable electricity requiring productive uses beyond the grid. Advanced materials manufacturing represents a key industrial strategy pillar where catalysis expertise provides competitive advantage.

The unit economics remain the central challenge. Green hydrogen currently costs approximately $10.30/kg compared to $1.50-2.30/kg for fossil-derived hydrogen. Closing this gap requires improvements across the value chain: electrolyzer capital cost reductions, increased efficiency, reduced renewable electricity costs, and improved catalyst durability. Each kilowatt-hour saved through better catalysis cascades through the entire economic model.

Measurement and characterization capabilities equally determine success. Materials that perform exceptionally in laboratory conditions frequently disappoint at industrial scale. The gap between academic publications reporting breakthrough catalytic activity and commercial products delivering sustained performance represents one of the field's persistent challenges—and opportunities for organizations that develop rigorous MRV (monitoring, reporting, verification) capabilities.

Key Concepts

Electrolysis Technologies: The Hydrogen Gateway

Electrolyzer technology represents the first critical application of electrochemistry for decarbonization. Three main technology families dominate:

Alkaline Electrolyzers hold 65.5% market share in 2024 according to Grand View Research. Using liquid potassium hydroxide electrolyte and nickel-based catalysts, these systems offer the lowest capital cost and longest operational track record. Limitations include lower current density (requiring larger footprints) and reduced dynamic response to variable renewable inputs.

PEM (Proton Exchange Membrane) Electrolyzers are growing at 41.7% CAGR, the fastest of any technology segment. Using solid polymer electrolytes and platinum-group metal (PGM) catalysts, PEM systems offer compact footprints, rapid response times ideal for renewable integration, and high-purity hydrogen output. The challenge: platinum and iridium catalyst loadings create both cost pressure and supply chain vulnerability.

SOEC (Solid Oxide Electrolyzers) operate at high temperatures (700-850°C), enabling exceptional efficiency when integrated with industrial waste heat. The market doubled to $2.07 billion in 2024. Ceramic electrolytes eliminate PGM requirements but introduce durability challenges—thermal cycling degrades performance over time.

Technology	Market Share (2024)	Efficiency	Catalyst Materials	Typical Lifespan	Cost Trajectory
Alkaline	65.5%	62-70%	Nickel-based	60,000-80,000 hrs	Mature, limited reduction
PEM	26.4%	65-80%	Pt, Ir (PGM)	40,000-60,000 hrs	Rapidly declining
SOEC	~8%	80-90%	Ceramic/Ni	20,000-40,000 hrs	Early stage

Beyond Hydrogen: Electrochemical Chemical Synthesis

While hydrogen dominates current electrochemistry deployment, the frontier extends to direct electrochemical synthesis of commodity chemicals:

Ammonia production via the Haber-Bosch process consumes 175 Mt annually, using 2% of global fossil fuels and generating 420 million tonnes CO₂/year. Electrochemical nitrogen reduction offers a pathway to renewable ammonia—critical for both fertilizers and emerging applications as a hydrogen carrier. Current challenges include low Faradaic efficiency (conversion selectivity) and catalyst stability.

CO₂ Reduction electrochemistry converts captured carbon dioxide into chemicals including formic acid, carbon monoxide (syngas), methanol, and even multi-carbon products like ethylene. Tandem electrolyzer approaches—splitting the reaction into optimized stages—are achieving previously unattainable selectivity for complex products. A 2024 publication in Energy & Fuels reported progress toward aromatic hydrocarbons from CO₂, suggesting pathways to renewable plastics feedstocks.

Organic Electrosynthesis applies electrochemical methods to fine chemical and pharmaceutical production. Advantages include precise control of oxidation states, elimination of stoichiometric reagents, and operation at ambient temperatures. While smaller scale than commodity chemicals, higher product values can tolerate current cost premiums.

Catalyst Design: From Empirical to Computational

Catalyst development is undergoing a methodological revolution. Traditional empirical approaches—synthesizing materials and testing performance iteratively—are giving way to computationally guided design:

The NREL BEAST Database, launched in 2024, provides open-source atomic-scale electrocatalyst properties for H₂, CO₂, and N₂ conversion reactions. By standardizing performance data, the database enables machine learning models to predict catalyst behavior and guide synthesis toward high-probability candidates.

High-throughput experimentation platforms can now test thousands of catalyst formulations monthly, compressing discovery timelines from years to months. Combined with automated synthesis, these approaches are democratizing catalyst development beyond traditional chemical company R&D centers.

Operando characterization—observing catalysts under actual reaction conditions rather than idealized laboratory settings—reveals why promising materials fail at scale. Techniques including in-situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy and environmental transmission electron microscopy are becoming standard evaluation tools.

What's Working

Air Liquide's Gigawatt-Scale Electrolyzer Deployment

Air Liquide's February 2025 launch of the 200 MW ELYgator plant in Rotterdam, combined with the 250 MW Zeeland project in partnership with TotalEnergies, represents electrochemistry graduating from pilot scale to industrial infrastructure. These projects use PEM technology to produce green hydrogen for refinery decarbonization and eventually synthetic fuel production.

The significance extends beyond megawatts. By standardizing electrolyzer stack designs and developing integrated manufacturing, Air Liquide is driving learning curve cost reductions. Their stated target: electrolyzer costs below €300/kW by 2030, compared to €500-800/kW in 2024. If achieved, this approaches the threshold where green hydrogen becomes competitive without subsidy in favorable renewable electricity markets.

High-Pressure Electrochemistry Breakthroughs

A 2024 publication in EES Catalysis from University of Illinois Chicago and Texas Tech researchers demonstrated that applying pressure to electrochemical reactions can overcome mass transfer limitations that constrain ambient-pressure systems. For commodity chemical synthesis where electrochemistry has historically struggled, pressure-enhanced approaches offer pathways to commercially relevant production rates.

The research highlights an important principle: electrochemical process intensification—doing more chemistry in smaller reactors—can improve economics even without catalyst breakthroughs. Combined with improved catalysts, intensification strategies may achieve the order-of-magnitude improvements needed for widespread adoption.

China's Green Hydrogen Infrastructure Buildout

China produced 20 million tonnes of hydrogen in 2024—one-third of global output—and is aggressively transitioning toward green production. The May 2025 announcement of China's first green hydrogen project with underground cavern storage (Hubei Province, 27 MW electrolyzer) demonstrates integration across production, storage, and utilization.

More significantly, Chinese electrolyzer manufacturing scale is driving global cost reductions. Chinese alkaline electrolyzer systems now sell at $200-300/kW—less than half European equivalents. While quality and durability questions persist, the competitive pressure is forcing Western manufacturers to accelerate cost reduction timelines.

What's Not Working

The Cost Gap Remains Fundamental

Despite progress, green hydrogen at $10.30/kg remains 4-7x more expensive than fossil-derived hydrogen. Electrolyzer capital costs have declined, but they represent only 30-40% of levelized hydrogen cost. The majority derives from electricity consumption—and renewable electricity, while declining in cost, remains expensive in many geographies.

The implication: electrochemical decarbonization often requires electricity prices below $0.02/kWh to achieve cost parity with fossil alternatives. Only exceptional renewable resources (offshore wind in the North Sea, solar in Arabia or Chile) currently achieve these costs consistently. For most UK industrial applications, policy support through Contracts for Difference or equivalent mechanisms remains necessary.

Catalyst Durability Gaps

PEM electrolyzers face particular durability challenges. Iridium catalysts for oxygen evolution exhibit dissolution under operational conditions, with performance degradation of 0.5-2% annually common in commercial systems. At 40,000-60,000 hour target lifespans, cumulative degradation significantly impacts lifetime economics.

The industry increasingly distinguishes between beginning-of-life and end-of-life performance specifications. Procurement teams evaluating electrolyzer investments must model degradation trajectories, not assume constant performance. Vendors are improving, but the gap between laboratory catalyst stability and commercial operating conditions persists.

Scale-Up Challenges for Novel Catalysts

Academic catalysis research frequently reports exceptional initial performance that doesn't translate to commercial viability. The reasons are multiple:

Laboratory conditions (pure feeds, controlled temperatures, short durations) don't match industrial reality
Synthesis methods achieving excellent performance in gram quantities fail at kilogram or tonne scale
Real feedstocks contain impurities that poison catalysts or accelerate degradation
Economic analysis neglects catalyst manufacturing cost, focusing only on activity metrics

Organizations commercializing catalyst technologies increasingly establish internal pilot facilities to validate performance under realistic conditions before committing to scale-up investments. The "valley of death" between TRL 4-6 (laboratory to pilot) claims more catalyst innovations than any other stage.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Linde (Germany/USA) — Global industrial gas leader with significant electrolyzer deployment capability; collaborative relationships with major energy companies for hydrogen infrastructure development. Strong process engineering capabilities for integrating electrolyzers with downstream utilization.

Air Liquide (France) — Aggressive green hydrogen infrastructure deployment including 450+ MW electrolyzer capacity in development across Europe. Strong partnerships with renewable developers and industrial offtakers.

Siemens Energy (Germany) — Major PEM electrolyzer manufacturer; Silyzer platform deployed at megawatt scale across multiple geographies. Vertical integration from stack manufacturing through project development.

Nel ASA (Norway) — Pure-play electrolyzer company with both alkaline and PEM product lines. Strong position in European markets; expanding North American manufacturing. Focus on cost reduction through standardization.

Emerging Startups

Hysata (Australia) — Raised $111 million Series A for capillary-fed electrolyzer technology claiming 95% cell efficiency—significantly exceeding conventional designs. If validated at scale, could fundamentally shift hydrogen economics.

Electric Hydrogen (USA) — Backed by significant venture funding; focused on cost-optimized electrolyzer systems for industrial-scale hydrogen production. Targeting the hardest economics: competing with grey hydrogen on cost.

Twelve (USA) — Commercializing electrochemical CO₂ conversion to chemicals and fuels. Technology converts industrial emissions directly to products including carbon monoxide and ethylene. Partnership with Shopify for e-commerce logistics decarbonization.

Key Investors & Funders

Breakthrough Energy Ventures — Bill Gates-backed fund with significant electrochemistry portfolio including Electric Hydrogen, Hysata, and CO₂ conversion companies.

SOSV/IndieBio — Life science and industrial biotech accelerator providing $250-500k pre-seed/seed investments to early-stage catalyst and electrochemistry companies.

UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) — Funding academic-industrial catalysis research through programs including the Faraday Institution and Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund.

Examples

Air Liquide ELYgator (Rotterdam, February 2025): The 200 MW PEM electrolyzer facility—among the largest globally—produces green hydrogen for Shell's Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam. The project demonstrates that electrochemical hydrogen production can integrate with existing refinery infrastructure, decarbonizing current operations while building capability for future synthetic fuel production. Air Liquide's standardized manufacturing approach targets significant cost reductions for subsequent installations.
NREL BEAST Database (2024): The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's open-source electrocatalyst database provides standardized performance data for hydrogen, CO₂, and nitrogen conversion reactions at atomic scale. By enabling machine learning model training on consistent datasets, BEAST accelerates catalyst discovery timelines from years to months. The database exemplifies how public research infrastructure can accelerate private sector innovation—companies can focus on development and manufacturing rather than fundamental characterization.
India's Green Hydrogen Certification Scheme (GHCI, May 2025): India launched comprehensive certification standards for green hydrogen production, establishing transparency in production methods and carbon intensity calculations. Combined with the Rs 100-crore startup scheme for hydrogen ventures, India demonstrates how regulatory frameworks and innovation support can work together. The certification scheme addresses a critical gap: without standardized definitions, "green hydrogen" claims varied wildly, undermining market development.

Action Checklist

Assess your hydrogen demand profile to determine whether electrochemical production (with its flexible operation characteristics) matches your consumption patterns or whether alternative low-carbon hydrogen sources better fit your needs
Evaluate electricity cost trajectories in your geography—electrochemical viability depends critically on achieving $0.02-0.04/kWh renewable electricity; map when and how your operations could access these prices
Engage with electrolyzer manufacturers early to understand lead times, which now extend 18-36 months for major systems; capacity constraints may limit procurement options if demand continues accelerating
Develop catalyst durability assessment capabilities internally or through partnerships; don't rely solely on vendor specifications, which often reflect optimistic rather than operational conditions
Track computational catalyst design developments through resources like the NREL BEAST database; early awareness of emerging materials can provide procurement advantages as technologies mature
Map integration opportunities with existing infrastructure—electrochemical systems often benefit from waste heat integration, byproduct utilization, or grid services revenue that improve overall economics

FAQ

Q: When will green hydrogen achieve cost parity with fossil-derived hydrogen in the UK? A: Consensus forecasts suggest 2030-2035 for favourable UK sites (North Sea offshore wind integration, industrial clusters with shared infrastructure). Achieving parity requires: (1) Electrolyzer costs declining to €300-400/kW, (2) Offshore wind electricity costs reaching £40-50/MWh, and (3) Continued policy support through CfDs during the transition. Remote locations with exceptional renewable resources may achieve parity earlier; most UK industrial sites will require support mechanisms through 2030.

Q: Should organizations prioritize alkaline or PEM electrolyzers for near-term hydrogen investments? A: Application-dependent. Alkaline systems suit constant-load operations (baseload hydrogen for industrial processes) where lower capital cost outweighs flexibility limitations. PEM systems suit variable renewable integration, rapid-response applications, and space-constrained installations. Many large projects now deploy both: alkaline for baseload and PEM for peak-shaving renewable surplus. Evaluate your electricity supply profile before technology selection.

Q: How should we evaluate electrochemical CO₂ conversion projects versus direct carbon capture and storage? A: The key differentiator is value creation versus cost centre. CCUS is fundamentally a cost—you pay to capture and store CO₂. Electrochemical conversion can create revenue through product sales (chemicals, fuels) but faces higher technical risk and requires markets for outputs. Organizations with both emissions reduction obligations and chemical/fuel purchasing needs should evaluate conversion pathways. Pure emissions reduction objectives typically favor proven CCUS routes.

Q: What catalyst performance metrics matter most when evaluating electrolyzer investments? A: Focus on three dimensions: (1) Initial activity (current density at target voltage)—determines capital cost and footprint. (2) Selectivity/Faradaic efficiency—determines electricity consumption per unit product. (3) Durability (performance retention over operating hours)—determines lifetime economics. Most vendors emphasize initial activity; sophisticated buyers evaluate durability data from extended operation. Request data from systems with 10,000+ operating hours, not laboratory samples.

Q: How is AI/ML changing catalyst development, and what are practical implications? A: Machine learning is compressing catalyst discovery timelines by predicting performance from atomic structure, enabling prioritization of high-probability candidates before synthesis. Practical implications: (1) Novel catalysts reaching market faster—expect accelerating technology evolution. (2) Competitive advantage shifting from empirical testing capability to computational prediction and ML model training. (3) Open-source databases (like NREL BEAST) democratizing access to foundational data, lowering barriers for new entrants.

Sources

Grand View Research. "Green Hydrogen Market Size, Share & Growth Report, 2030." 2025. https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/green-hydrogen-market
Polaris Market Research. "Green Hydrogen Market Forecast 2034: Size & Growth Analysis." 2025. https://www.polarismarketresearch.com/industry-analysis/green-hydrogen-market
Delgado et al. "High-pressure electrochemistry: a new frontier in decarbonization." EES Catalysis, Royal Society of Chemistry, 2024. https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2024/ey/d3ey00284e
National Renewable Energy Laboratory. "New Database Aims To Accelerate Electrocatalyst Development Through Atomic-Scale Insights." 2024. https://www.nrel.gov/news/detail/program/2024/new-database-aims-to-accelerate-electrocatalyst-development-through-atomic-scale-insights
Nitopi et al. "Emerging Electrochemical Processes to Decarbonize the Chemical Industry." JACS Au, 2022. https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jacsau.2c00138
Sharma et al. "Nanomaterials for electrochemical CO2 conversion: mechanistic insights and emerging hybrid strategies." Emergent Materials, Springer, 2025. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42247-025-01283-6