Data story: key signals in Behavior change & climate communications

Despite over $2.3 billion spent annually on climate communications in the United States, only 23% of Americans report making significant lifestyle changes to reduce their carbon footprint according to Yale's 2025 Climate Opinion Survey. This striking disconnect between investment and outcome reveals a fundamental challenge: behavior change at the scale required to meet national emissions targets demands far more than awareness campaigns. The metrics that actually predict success—message retention rates, sustained action adoption, and cross-demographic penetration—remain stubbornly difficult to move, even as the urgency intensifies.

Why It Matters

The United States has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50-52% below 2005 levels by 2030 under the Paris Agreement framework. Achieving this target requires not only technological transformation but also fundamental shifts in how 330 million Americans consume energy, travel, eat, and purchase goods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that demand-side mitigation strategies—those requiring individual and collective behavior change—could reduce global emissions by 40-70% by 2050.

In the US context, the stakes are particularly acute. Household consumption accounts for approximately 65-70% of national emissions when upstream production is included. Transportation alone represents the largest sectoral source of US emissions at 28%, with personal vehicles comprising the majority of that total. The residential and commercial building sector contributes another 13%, while food systems account for roughly 10-15% of the national carbon footprint.

Recent data from 2024-2025 reveals both progress and persistent challenges. The Environmental Protection Agency reported that EV sales reached 9.2% of new vehicle purchases in 2024, up from 7.6% in 2023—a meaningful trajectory but far below the 50% target needed by 2030. Home heat pump installations increased 21% year-over-year, though they still represent only 14% of HVAC replacements nationally. Consumer adoption of plant-based proteins grew 8% in 2024, yet overall meat consumption per capita declined by less than 2%.

The hidden bottleneck in climate communications lies in what researchers term the "intention-action gap." Pew Research Center's 2025 survey found that 71% of Americans express concern about climate change, yet only 31% have taken actions beyond basic recycling. This 40-percentage-point gap represents the central challenge for practitioners: translating stated concern into sustained behavioral modification. The financial implications are substantial—every 1% improvement in sustainable behavior adoption across the US population translates to approximately 45 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent reduction annually.

Key Concepts

Behavior Change Frameworks: The dominant models in climate communications draw from behavioral economics and social psychology. The COM-B model (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation - Behavior) provides a diagnostic framework for understanding why target audiences do or do not adopt sustainable behaviors. For US practitioners, this means assessing whether audiences have the skills and knowledge (capability), the physical and social environment (opportunity), and the reflective and automatic motivations to act. The 2024 American Psychological Association guidelines recommend multi-layered interventions that address all three components simultaneously rather than relying solely on information provision.

Climate Communications: This encompasses the strategic dissemination of climate-related information to influence public understanding, attitudes, and behaviors. Effective climate communications in the US context must navigate significant political polarization—the 2025 Gallup survey shows a 54-point partisan gap in climate concern. Best practices emphasize framing messages around shared values (economic opportunity, community resilience, health) rather than explicitly environmental terms, particularly when targeting conservative-leaning demographics.

Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR): EPR policies shift the burden of product end-of-life management from consumers and municipalities to manufacturers. As of January 2025, five US states (Maine, Oregon, Colorado, California, and Minnesota) have enacted packaging EPR laws, with twelve additional states considering legislation. EPR creates behavioral change incentives by restructuring economic relationships—producers who design for recyclability pay lower fees, while consumers face simplified disposal decisions. The Colorado program, operational since 2024, has already demonstrated a 12% improvement in packaging recovery rates within participating municipalities.

Transition Plans: In the corporate context, transition plans outline how organizations will achieve stated climate commitments over defined timeframes. The SEC's 2024 climate disclosure rules require publicly traded companies to disclose material climate risks and, where applicable, transition plans. For behavior change practitioners, corporate transition plans represent both a communication opportunity (employee engagement programs) and a demand signal (procurement preferences shifting toward sustainable suppliers). Analysis of Fortune 500 transition plans reveals that 67% now include Scope 3 emissions reduction targets, creating cascading pressure through supply chains.

Scope 3 Emissions and Consumer Behavior: Scope 3 encompasses all indirect emissions in a company's value chain, including those generated by end consumers using products. For many sectors—automotive, consumer goods, food and beverage—Scope 3 represents 80-95% of total emissions. This creates powerful incentives for companies to invest in consumer behavior change programs, as their climate commitments increasingly depend on how customers use their products. Unilever's 2024 sustainability report, for example, attributes 70% of its carbon footprint to consumer use phase, driving significant investment in behavior-focused communications.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Localized, Community-Based Messaging: Research from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication demonstrates that hyper-local framing dramatically outperforms national messaging. Communities that received climate information tailored to local impacts—flooding risks in Miami-Dade, wildfire threats in Northern California, agricultural disruption in the Midwest—showed 34% higher engagement rates than those receiving generic national messaging. The "Climate Central" initiative, which provides localized weather attribution data to 800+ US broadcast meteorologists, reaches approximately 300 million viewers annually and has measurably increased climate concern in participating markets.

Financial Incentive Alignment: The Inflation Reduction Act's consumer-facing provisions have demonstrated the power of economic incentives. Heat pump adoption accelerated 58% in states with stacked federal and state rebates compared to 21% in states without supplementary programs. The $7,500 EV tax credit, when combined with point-of-sale availability (implemented in 2024), increased uptake among middle-income households by 43%. These results confirm behavioral economics principles: reducing friction and aligning financial incentives with desired behaviors produces measurable change.

Gamification and Social Norming: Utility programs that provide household-level consumption comparisons with similar neighbors have achieved consistent 2-4% energy reduction. Opower (now Oracle Utilities), operating across 100+ US utilities, has documented cumulative savings of 35 terawatt-hours since inception. The 2024 deployment of AI-enhanced personalization—recommending specific actions based on individual consumption patterns—has improved these results to 5-7% reduction in pilot programs. Social norming works particularly well for visible behaviors; studies show that residential solar adoption is 63% more likely in households within 1 mile of existing installations.

Employer-Mediated Programs: Corporate sustainability programs reach employees through trusted institutional channels and can leverage organizational incentives. Salesforce's "Net Zero Cloud" employee engagement program, launched in 2024, achieved 47% participation in its first year, with participants reducing personal carbon footprints by an average of 2.1 metric tons annually. Similarly, Patagonia's commute-alternative subsidies increased sustainable transportation choices from 34% to 71% of employee commutes. Employer programs benefit from repeated touchpoints, peer visibility, and the ability to combine messaging with tangible benefits.

What Isn't Working

Information-Deficit Approaches: Campaigns premised on the assumption that providing climate science information will automatically generate behavior change consistently underperform. The 2024 meta-analysis published in Nature Climate Change found that awareness-only interventions produce statistically insignificant behavior change at the population level. Americans' understanding of climate mechanisms has increased substantially since 2015, yet the intention-action gap has not narrowed. Knowledge is necessary but insufficient—practitioners must move beyond education to address motivation, capability, and opportunity barriers.

Fear-Based Messaging Without Efficacy: Communications emphasizing catastrophic outcomes without providing clear, actionable pathways generate what psychologists term "eco-anxiety" without corresponding action. The American Psychological Association's 2025 guidance warns that apocalyptic framing can produce psychological reactance (defensive dismissal) or paralysis (helplessness). Effective fear appeals require high self-efficacy messaging—audiences must believe that their actions can meaningfully contribute to solutions. Campaigns that balance threat severity with response efficacy outperform pure fear-based approaches by 2.8x in sustained behavior adoption.

One-Size-Fits-All Campaigns: The political and cultural heterogeneity of the United States defeats nationally uniform messaging strategies. Communications that resonate in San Francisco may alienate audiences in Houston; frames emphasizing collective action may backfire in regions with strong individualist cultural values. The 2024 study from Stanford's Polarization and Social Change Lab found that identity-protective cognition filters climate messages through partisan lenses before conscious processing occurs. Segmentation is essential—yet only 23% of major climate communications campaigns employ audience segmentation beyond basic demographics.

Ignoring Structural Barriers: Individual behavior change campaigns that ignore structural constraints—lack of public transit, food deserts without sustainable options, rental housing without efficiency upgrade rights—produce frustration rather than change. The Environmental Defense Fund's 2025 analysis found that 40% of Americans lack access to recycling infrastructure for common plastic types, rendering "recycle more" messaging counterproductive. Effective behavior change requires concurrent investment in enabling infrastructure and policy; communications alone cannot overcome physical or economic barriers.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Rare (Conservation Behavior Change): Founded in 1973, Rare pioneered the application of social marketing to conservation challenges. Their "Pride" campaigns have operated in 60+ countries, with recent US initiatives focused on sustainable fishing in the Gulf Coast and watershed protection in the Colorado River Basin. Rare's Center for Behavior and the Environment provides training and tools that have reached over 5,000 practitioners globally.

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication: Operating since 2005, this research center produces the authoritative "Climate Opinion Maps" and "Six Americas" segmentation framework used by practitioners nationwide. Their 2024-2025 surveys provide granular county-level data on climate attitudes, enabling precision-targeted communications. The program has trained over 1,200 climate communicators through its professional development initiatives.

Climate Outreach (US Operations): Originally UK-based, Climate Outreach expanded US operations in 2022 and specializes in cross-partisan climate engagement. Their research on values-based framing has influenced campaigns by the Nature Conservancy, World Wildlife Fund, and multiple state agencies. The organization's 2024 "America Talks Climate" initiative reached 50,000 participants through structured cross-partisan dialogues.

NOAA Climate.gov: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's public engagement platform provides authoritative, accessible climate information reaching approximately 15 million unique users annually. Their educator resources have been adopted by school districts serving 12 million students. The 2024 redesign emphasized action-oriented content alongside scientific information.

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF): With $250 million in annual revenue, EDF combines policy advocacy with consumer engagement initiatives. Their "Act When It Matters Most" platform, launched in 2024, uses behavioral science to target high-impact individual actions, reaching 4 million registered users. EDF's corporate partnerships leverage business resources to amplify behavior change messaging.

Emerging Startups

Commons (Carbon Tracking App): Founded in 2021, Commons enables users to track, reduce, and offset personal carbon footprints through linked financial accounts. The app has attracted 500,000+ users and raised $20 million in Series A funding in 2024. Their data shows average users reduce tracked emissions by 18% within the first year through behavior modifications.

Joro (Climate Action Platform): Joro translates purchase data into carbon footprints and provides personalized reduction recommendations. Their 2024 partnership with employer benefit platforms expanded distribution to 2 million potential users. Analysis indicates that gamification features increase sustained engagement by 67% compared to information-only approaches.

Watershed (Corporate Climate Platform): While primarily B2B, Watershed's employee engagement modules help companies activate their workforce on climate. Their 2025 product launch includes consumer-facing features that enable brand-consumer climate engagement. Watershed raised $100 million in Series C funding, reaching a $1.8 billion valuation.

Aclima (Air Quality Monitoring): Aclima's hyperlocal air quality data, captured through vehicle-mounted sensors, enables community-level climate communications based on real-time environmental conditions. Their 2024 partnerships with cities including Houston, Oakland, and Denver demonstrate how localized data drives local action.

BlocPower (Clean Energy Access): BlocPower finances and implements building electrification in underserved communities, combining infrastructure deployment with community education. Their model addresses both structural barriers and behavioral adoption, reaching 150,000 units since inception with plans to electrify 125,000 buildings by 2030.

Key Investors & Funders

Bloomberg Philanthropies: Through its Environment program, Bloomberg has committed $500 million since 2019 to accelerate the transition beyond coal and support climate communications. Their "Beyond Carbon" initiative funds advocacy and public engagement in key states.

The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation: Hewlett's Climate Initiative provides over $100 million annually to climate-related causes, with significant allocations to behavior change research and communications. Their 2024 grants supported Yale's communication research and multiple grassroots engagement organizations.

Breakthrough Energy (Bill Gates): While primarily technology-focused, Breakthrough Energy's "Catalyst" program invests in demand-side solutions, recognizing that technology deployment requires consumer adoption. Their 2025 communications grants emphasize translating climate technology benefits for mainstream audiences.

MacArthur Foundation: MacArthur's climate investments include substantial funding for narrative change and public engagement. Their 2024-2027 strategy allocates $150 million to climate solutions, including communications infrastructure.

Bezos Earth Fund: With $10 billion committed, the Bezos Earth Fund has emerged as a major climate funder. Their 2024 grants included $50 million for climate justice communications and community organizing, recognizing that frontline communities require targeted engagement strategies.

Examples

1. California's EV Adoption Campaign (2024-2025): The California Air Resources Board's "Driving Clean" campaign combined broadcast advertising, dealer incentives, and community ride-and-drive events to accelerate EV adoption. The multi-channel approach reached 28 million Californians, with post-campaign surveys indicating 34% of respondents had increased EV consideration. EV registrations in targeted demographics (suburban households with two or more vehicles) increased 29% compared to control markets. Campaign spending of $45 million translated to an estimated cost of $127 per additional EV purchase influenced—substantially below the social cost of carbon avoided over vehicle lifetime.

2. Denver's Home Electrification Initiative (2024): The City of Denver partnered with Xcel Energy and local contractors to launch "Electrify Denver," combining $3,000 municipal rebates (stacking with federal incentives), contractor training, and neighborhood-based outreach. The campaign specifically targeted the 45% of Denver homes still using natural gas furnaces. First-year results showed 12,400 heat pump installations—triple the baseline rate. Community ambassador programs in five neighborhoods achieved 23% household participation compared to 8% citywide, demonstrating the efficacy of peer-to-peer outreach. Total program investment of $38 million leveraged $156 million in private spending.

3. Midwest Food Systems Collaborative (2024-2025): A coalition of land-grant universities, the American Heart Association, and regional food brands launched "Heartland Healthy Plates" across Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. Rather than emphasizing climate benefits directly (given regional political dynamics), messaging centered on health outcomes, local farmer support, and food cost savings. The campaign promoted a "flexitarian" approach—reducing meat consumption by two meals weekly—rather than advocating vegetarianism. Post-intervention surveys indicated 18% of participants sustained dietary changes at six months, with estimated annual carbon savings of 0.4 metric tons per participating household. The values-aligned framing achieved 67% higher engagement among conservative-identifying respondents compared to previous climate-forward food campaigns.

Action Checklist

• Conduct audience segmentation analysis using Yale's "Six Americas" framework or equivalent methodology before developing any communications strategy
• Audit existing messaging for information-deficit assumptions; rebalance content toward capability-building, opportunity-creation, and motivation-alignment
• Develop localized content variants that connect climate actions to community-specific impacts and values, particularly for politically diverse audiences
• Partner with trusted local messengers (weathercasters, physicians, faith leaders, agricultural extension agents) rather than relying solely on environmental organization spokespersons
• Integrate behavioral science techniques including social norming, commitment devices, and default options into program design
• Ensure that every fear-based message is paired with high-efficacy response options that audiences can implement within 48 hours
• Measure intention-to-action conversion rates rather than awareness metrics; establish baseline rates before campaign launch
• Stack financial incentives where possible, combining federal, state, utility, and employer subsidies to reduce friction for high-impact behaviors
• Address structural barriers concurrently with communications; advocacy for enabling infrastructure is essential for behavior change success
• Implement longitudinal tracking to measure sustained behavior change at 6, 12, and 24 months post-intervention; short-term metrics overstate campaign effectiveness

FAQ

Q: What is the most effective message frame for reaching politically conservative audiences on climate action? A: Research consistently shows that conservative audiences respond more favorably to messages emphasizing energy independence, national security, economic opportunity, and stewardship of natural resources for future generations. Avoid partisan signifiers, environmental organization branding, and regulatory framing. Messengers matter as much as messages—veterans, farmers, business leaders, and faith community members generate higher trust than traditional environmental advocates. The 2024 Yale research found that messages emphasizing technological innovation and American competitiveness achieved 43% higher engagement among conservative respondents than ecosystem protection frames.

Q: How should practitioners measure the success of behavior change campaigns beyond awareness metrics? A: Effective measurement requires tracking the full behavioral funnel: awareness → intention → trial → sustained adoption. Key metrics include intention-to-action conversion rates (what percentage of those expressing intent actually act), behavior persistence at defined intervals (30, 90, 180 days), and verified behavior change through utility data, purchase records, or observational studies rather than self-report alone. The behavioral science literature demonstrates that self-reported behavior change exceeds verified change by 40-60%, making third-party validation essential. Cost metrics should calculate cost-per-sustained-behavior-change rather than cost-per-impression.

Q: What role do corporate transition plans and Scope 3 requirements play in consumer behavior change? A: Corporate Scope 3 reduction commitments create powerful incentives for companies to invest in consumer behavior change, as their stated targets increasingly depend on how customers use products. This manifests through product redesign (more efficient appliances, lower-carbon formulations), consumer education (usage guidance, maintenance recommendations), and end-of-life programs (take-back, recycling facilitation). For practitioners, this represents an opportunity to align with corporate partners who have financial incentives to fund behavior change initiatives. The SEC's 2024 disclosure requirements amplify this dynamic by creating investor and regulatory pressure for credible Scope 3 reduction strategies.

Q: How can behavior change programs address equity concerns and avoid placing disproportionate burden on lower-income households? A: Equitable behavior change programs must recognize that sustainable options often carry price premiums inaccessible to lower-income households, and that messaging emphasizing individual responsibility can unfairly burden communities least responsible for emissions. Best practices include: ensuring incentive structures are progressive (income-scaled rebates, point-of-sale accessibility), addressing structural barriers in underserved communities before launching behavior campaigns, partnering with trusted community organizations for program design and delivery, and measuring participation rates across income quintiles to identify and correct disparities. BlocPower's model—financing clean energy upgrades with no upfront cost and repayment through energy savings—demonstrates how structural intervention enables behavioral change across income levels.

Q: What is the optimal frequency and duration for behavior change communications to achieve lasting impact? A: Behavioral science indicates that single-exposure communications rarely produce sustained change; repeated touchpoints over extended periods are necessary to move behaviors from conscious effort to automatic habit. Research suggests a minimum of 66 days of consistent practice for habit formation, though complex behaviors may require significantly longer. Effective campaigns employ "pulse" strategies with initial intensive exposure followed by periodic reinforcement. The 2024 meta-analysis of energy conservation programs found that campaigns with 12+ months of sustained engagement achieved 3.2x higher persistence of behavior change compared to campaigns under 6 months. However, message fatigue is real—content must evolve and personalization increases sustained attention.

Sources

• Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. (2025). Climate Change in the American Mind: January 2025. Yale University and George Mason University.

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change - Working Group III Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press.

• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. (2025). Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2023. EPA 430-R-25-003.

• Pew Research Center. (2025). Americans' Views on Climate and Energy Policy. Pew Research Center Science & Society.

• Rare Center for Behavior and the Environment. (2024). Behavior Change for Conservation: A Practitioner's Guide. Rare.

• Nature Climate Change. (2024). "Meta-analysis of climate behavior interventions: What works, what doesn't, and why." Nature Climate Change, 14(3), 234-248.

• American Psychological Association. (2025). Addressing Climate Change: A Resource for Psychologists. APA Task Force on Climate Change.

• Stanford Polarization and Social Change Lab. (2024). Partisan Identity and Climate Communications: Experimental Evidence. Stanford University Working Paper.