Trend Watch: Behavior Change & Climate Communications in 2026

A landmark 2025 study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) tested 17 psychological strategies across 7,624 participants and revealed that while 67% of Americans believe citizens should be doing more to address climate change, only 15% actually take sustained climate action—exposing a persistent attitude-behavior gap that represents one of the most significant untapped opportunities in the climate transition. This finding underscores a critical reality: the climate crisis is not merely a technological or policy challenge but fundamentally a behavioral one. Nearly two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions are directly or indirectly linked to individual and household consumption patterns, suggesting that comprehensive behavior change could unlock 40–70% of the emissions reductions needed by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As we enter 2026, the emerging standards shaping buyer requirements increasingly recognize that effective climate communications must move beyond information-deficit models toward audience-centered, solution-focused, emotionally resonant storytelling delivered through trusted messengers with clear action pathways.

Why It Matters

The urgency of behavior change in climate communications cannot be overstated. Despite decades of climate science and mounting evidence of environmental degradation, the gap between public awareness and meaningful action remains stubbornly wide. The Yale Program on Climate Change Communication's 2024 survey data from over 32,000 respondents revealed that while 30% of Americans say they would "definitely" engage in climate political actions, only half that number follow through. This represents billions of potential emissions reductions left on the table.

For product and design teams in the UK and beyond, this matters because emerging buyer requirements increasingly demand evidence of genuine behavior change outcomes, not just awareness metrics. Corporate sustainability teams, government procurement officers, and institutional investors are shifting their evaluation criteria toward measurable impact on emissions, consumption patterns, and adaptation behaviors. The days of glossy sustainability reports featuring awareness campaigns without demonstrated behavioral outcomes are numbered.

The financial stakes are substantial. The World Resources Institute estimates an annual climate adaptation finance gap of $187–359 billion, much of which could be addressed through better communication of climate risks and solutions. Organizations that master behavior change communications will capture a disproportionate share of the growing sustainable products and services market, projected to reach $150 trillion globally by 2030.

Key Concepts

Understanding the emerging standards in behavior change communications requires familiarity with several foundational concepts that are reshaping buyer requirements.

The Attitude-Behavior Gap refers to the disconnect between what people say they will do and what they actually do regarding climate action. Research consistently shows this gap is widest for high-impact behaviors such as reducing meat consumption and air travel—precisely the areas where emissions reductions matter most.

Efficacy Beliefs encompass both self-efficacy (belief in one's ability to take action) and collective efficacy (belief that group action can make a difference). A 2024 study in the journal Environmental Communication demonstrated that experience-based communications, including virtual reality simulations, significantly outperform traditional information-based approaches by enhancing these efficacy beliefs.

Social Norms Messaging leverages the fundamental human tendency to align behavior with perceived group standards. The Behavioural Insights Team has consistently found that descriptive norms ("most of your neighbors are reducing energy use") outperform injunctive norms ("you should reduce energy use") in driving behavior change.

Trusted Messengers are critical intermediaries in climate communication. Research consistently ranks climate scientists and family members (including children) as the most trusted sources, followed by "people like me" who are visibly affected by climate change and taking action.

Present Bias and Salience Effects describe cognitive tendencies that prioritize immediate over future consequences and emphasize vivid, personally relevant information. Effective climate communications must overcome these biases by making future climate impacts feel present and tangible.

What's Working

Experience-Based Communications

The shift from information-based to experience-based climate communications represents one of the most significant advances in the field. Research published in 2024 demonstrated that virtual reality experiences showing future coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and extreme weather scenarios led to measurable reductions in high-carbon behaviors, including beef consumption, that persisted beyond the experimental setting. Government agencies using visible risk maps in communities have achieved significantly higher engagement rates than those relying on written reports alone.

Solution-Focused Messaging

Campaigns emphasizing solutions over doom-and-gloom narratives consistently outperform fear-based approaches. The Rare and Potential Energy Coalition's "Eight Principles for Effective Climate Communication" framework, published in 2024, demonstrates that messages focusing on health benefits, cost savings, and innovative technologies resonate more effectively than planetary appeals. This approach builds agency and efficacy rather than fostering climate despair.

Short-Form Video Content

TikTok, Instagram Reels, and YouTube Shorts have emerged as the dominant platforms for reaching younger audiences and those with "issue fatigue." Climate communicators achieving the highest engagement rates have adapted to these formats, delivering compelling narratives in 60 seconds or less. Greta Thunberg remains among the most effective digital climate communicators, demonstrating that authenticity and youth perspectives can achieve viral reach.

Behavior Change KPIs by Sector

Sector	Key Performance Indicator	Target Range (2026)	Measurement Method
Retail/Consumer	Purchase behavior shift to sustainable alternatives	15–25% YoY increase	Point-of-sale tracking
Utilities	Peak demand reduction via behavioral nudges	8–15% reduction	Smart meter data
Transport	Modal shift to public/active transport	10–20% mode share gain	Survey + app data
Food/Agriculture	Plant-forward meal selection	20–30% uptake in institutional settings	Menu analysis
Financial Services	Sustainable investment allocation	25–40% portfolio shift	AUM tracking
Built Environment	Energy behavior compliance	>70% adoption of recommended behaviors	Building management systems

What's Not Working

Information-Deficit Approaches

Despite persistent use across government and corporate communications, approaches that assume providing more scientific information will drive behavior change consistently fail to deliver results. A comprehensive review found only seven rigorous studies evaluating climate communication activities by scientists over a ten-year period, and most showed limited behavioral impact from information provision alone.

Overreliance on Individual Responsibility Framing

Campaigns that place the burden of climate action solely on individuals, without acknowledging systemic barriers or collective dimensions, generate backlash and disengagement. Research from Germany published in 2025 found that priming about economic, generational, or global inequality showed limited effect on behavior change when individual responsibility remained the dominant frame.

High-Resistance Behavior Targeting Without Graduated Pathways

Campaigns demanding immediate, significant changes to high-resistance behaviors (meat consumption, car use) without providing intermediate steps or addressing underlying infrastructure constraints achieve poor results. The World Resources Institute's analysis of 19 major emitting countries found that most national climate plans fail to include high-impact individual behaviors such as dietary shifts and reducing air travel, reflecting both political sensitivity and recognition that behavior change requires graduated approaches.

Platform-Agnostic Content Strategies

Organizations repurposing long-form content across all platforms without adaptation to platform-specific norms and formats see declining engagement. The rise of short-form video has made this approach particularly ineffective for reaching younger demographics.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication remains the definitive source for public opinion data on climate change in the United States, with its Climate Opinion Maps providing granular insights down to the congressional district level. Their research on the attitude-behavior gap has fundamentally shaped academic and practitioner understanding of communication challenges.

The Behavioural Insights Team (BIT), founded in the UK and now operating globally, has pioneered the application of behavioral science to public policy, including climate communications. Their work on social norms messaging and choice architecture has been adopted by governments and corporations worldwide.

Rare is a global conservation organization that has invested heavily in behavioral science for environmental outcomes. Their "Eight Principles for Effective Climate Communication" framework, developed in partnership with the Potential Energy Coalition, represents the current state of the art in evidence-based climate messaging.

World Resources Institute (WRI) provides critical analysis of how behavior change integrates with national climate commitments, identifying gaps between policy ambition and the behavior change strategies needed to achieve them.

Emerging Startups

Wren (Y Combinator-backed) offers personal carbon footprint tracking and offsetting, transforming abstract climate data into actionable individual choices. Their platform emphasizes efficacy by showing users precisely how their actions translate to emissions reductions.

Klima (Climate Labs, Berlin) has built a mobile-first approach to personal carbon management, achieving significant user engagement through gamification and social features that leverage peer comparison and collective action framing.

Winnow applies AI to food waste behavior change in commercial kitchens, scanning waste and providing real-time feedback that has halved food waste in over 2,700 restaurant kitchens including IKEA UK. Their approach demonstrates the power of immediate behavioral feedback loops.

Key Investors

Breakthrough Energy Ventures (Bill Gates-backed) has committed $537 million to climate AI solutions in 2025, with behavior change platforms increasingly represented in their portfolio as they recognize the limits of technology-only approaches.

Lowercarbon Capital focuses on early-stage climate investments across consumer and industrial behavior change, recognizing that engagement platforms are essential infrastructure for the climate transition.

S2G Ventures (with approximately $2.5 billion in assets under management) targets food and agriculture decarbonization, including behavior change interventions addressing dietary patterns and food waste.

Examples

1. UK Government's Simple Energy Advice Campaign

The UK government's Simple Energy Advice service, delivered through the Energy Saving Trust, demonstrates effective public-sector behavior change communications. By combining trusted government messaging with clear, actionable steps and local authority partnerships, the service achieved a 35% increase in home energy assessment completions in 2024–2025. The campaign succeeded by meeting people where they are—providing graduated pathways from simple behavioral adjustments to significant home retrofit investments.

2. Oatly's "Post-Milk Generation" Campaign

Swedish oat milk producer Oatly has pioneered solution-focused climate communications targeting dietary behavior change. Rather than emphasizing the environmental problems with dairy, their campaigns celebrate the positive identity of plant-forward consumers, using humor and cultural relevance to normalize behavior change. Their approach has contributed to the oat milk market growing 40% year-over-year in the UK, demonstrating commercial success alongside environmental impact.

3. Transport for London's Sustainable Travel Promotion

Transport for London's sustained investment in behavior change communications has contributed to one of the highest public transport mode shares among major global cities. Their campaigns combine social norms messaging ("Londoners are switching to active travel"), clear economic benefits, and health framing. The 2024–2025 campaign achieved a measurable 12% increase in cycling journey stages, demonstrating that infrastructure investment paired with effective communications delivers superior results.

Action Checklist

• Audit current climate communications for information-deficit assumptions; identify opportunities to shift toward experience-based and solution-focused messaging
• Map stakeholder segments using attitudinal data (Yale Climate Opinion Maps methodology) to tailor communications by audience psychographics rather than demographics alone
• Establish behavior change KPIs aligned with the sector-specific targets above; integrate measurement systems to track actual behavior, not just awareness or intent
• Identify and cultivate trusted messengers within key stakeholder communities; prioritize scientists, affected community members, and peer voices over celebrity endorsements
• Develop graduated action pathways that meet people where they are, providing entry points for low-resistance behaviors before escalating to higher-impact actions
• Invest in short-form video content creation capabilities to reach younger audiences and those with issue fatigue
• Partner with behavioral science practitioners (BIT, Rare, or specialized consultancies) to apply evidence-based interventions
• Review procurement requirements to include demonstrated behavior change outcomes, not just awareness metrics, as evaluation criteria for sustainability communications suppliers

FAQ

Q: How do we measure behavior change rather than just awareness? A: Move beyond survey-based intent measures to actual behavioral data. This includes point-of-sale tracking for consumer products, smart meter data for energy behaviors, app-based journey tracking for transport, and menu analysis for dietary patterns. The emerging buyer standard requires linking communications spend to measurable behavioral outcomes using these direct measurement approaches.

Q: What is the most effective messenger for climate communications? A: Research consistently shows climate scientists rank highest for credibility, but family members and "people like me" drive actual behavior change most effectively. The most successful campaigns combine expert credibility with peer relatability—scientists providing the evidence, but community members modeling the behavior. Celebrities and influencers can amplify reach but should be positioned in learning roles rather than expert roles.

Q: How do we address high-resistance behaviors like meat consumption? A: Avoid demanding immediate, complete behavior change. Instead, provide graduated pathways: start with reducing food waste, then introduce plant-forward options as additions rather than replacements, before eventually framing reduced meat consumption as a choice. Use social norms messaging showing that dietary patterns are already shifting, and emphasize health and cost benefits rather than environmental guilt.

Q: What role does generative AI play in climate communications? A: Generative AI offers transformative potential for personalized, scalable climate communications—composing tailored messages, delivering individualized information, and enabling dialogue at scale. However, the technology also amplifies misinformation risks. Emerging best practice involves human oversight of AI-generated content, fact-checking integration, and transparency about AI use in communications.

Q: How do we communicate climate adaptation without inducing despair? A: Frame adaptation as empowerment rather than resignation. Highlight successful adaptation examples, emphasize community resilience and collective action, and focus on agency—what people can do, not just what is happening to them. VR experiences showing future risks paired with solution pathways have proven effective at motivating adaptation behavior without triggering disengagement.

Sources

• Ballew, M. T., et al. (2024). "The attitude-behavior gap on climate action: How can it be bridged?" Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/attitude-behavior-gap/

• Dablander, F., Lange, L., et al. (2025). "Behavioral interventions motivate action to address climate change." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2426768122

• Rare & Potential Energy Coalition. (2024). "Eight Principles for Effective and Inviting Climate Communication." https://rare.org/research-reports/eight-principles-for-effective-and-inviting-climate-communication/

• World Resources Institute. (2024). "How Countries Can Use Behavior Change to Further Reduce Emissions." https://www.wri.org/insights/behavior-change-reduce-emissions-climate-plans

• Geiger, N., et al. (2024). "Shifting from Information- to Experience-Based Climate Change Communication Increases Pro-Environmental Behavior Via Efficacy Beliefs." Environmental Communication. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17524032.2024.2334727

• Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. (2024). "Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2024." https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us/

• Schäfer, M. S. (2025). "Social media in climate change communication: State of the field, new developments and the emergence of generative AI." Current Research in Ecological and Social Psychology. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/29768659241300666