Deep dive: Carbon capture materials (sorbents, membranes) — the fastest-moving subsegments to watch

The carbon capture materials market reached $66.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $99.1 billion by 2030 at an 8.2% CAGR, according to MarketsandMarkets. Within this expanding landscape, sorbents and membranes represent the most dynamic subsegments—solid sorbents alone grew from $1.8 billion in 2024 to an expected $7.3 billion by 2035 at a 13.5% CAGR. This acceleration is driven by breakthroughs in metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), the opening of Svante's first commercial gigafactory for solid sorbent filters in May 2025, and over $2.3 billion in private capital flowing into direct air capture (DAC) ventures since 2021. For engineers and project developers evaluating capture technologies, understanding which material subsegments are scaling—and which remain stuck in laboratory demonstrations—is now operationally critical.

Why It Matters

Carbon capture sits at the intersection of climate necessity and industrial reality. The International Energy Agency estimates that reaching net-zero by 2050 requires capturing 7.6 gigatonnes of CO₂ annually by mid-century—roughly 100 times current global capacity. Materials innovation is the bottleneck that determines whether this scaling is economically feasible.

The choice between sorbents and membranes fundamentally shapes project economics. Membrane systems offer continuous operation with lower energy requirements (achieving up to 90% capture rates without chemical regeneration), making them attractive for retrofitting power plants and industrial facilities. Solid sorbents, particularly amine-functionalized materials, enable direct air capture from ambient concentrations—a capability membranes cannot practically achieve. Each technology addresses different concentration regimes: membranes excel at post-combustion capture with 10-15% CO₂ flue gas, while advanced sorbents can extract CO₂ from air at just 420 ppm.

For the UK specifically, where industrial clusters in Teesside, Humberside, and the Scottish Lowlands are central to the government's net-zero strategy, materials selection determines whether projects can access the £20 billion CCS infrastructure fund announced in the 2024 Autumn Budget. Projects using immature technologies face higher financing costs and longer permitting timelines.

Key Concepts

Sorbents: Solid Materials That Bind CO₂

Solid sorbents capture carbon dioxide through either chemisorption (forming chemical bonds) or physisorption (physical adsorption). Amine-based sorbents dominate the market with 55% share in 2024, but adsorbent materials are growing fastest at 18.25% CAGR by volume through 2035.

The critical distinction lies in regeneration energy. Amine-functionalized sorbents require heating to 80-120°C to release captured CO₂, consuming substantial energy. Newer physisorption materials like CALF-20 (Calgary Framework 20) operate with modest heat requirements and have demonstrated stability over 450,000 steam cycles—a durability threshold that makes industrial deployment viable.

Membranes: Selective Barriers for Gas Separation

Membranes separate CO₂ from other gases based on differential permeation rates. Polymeric membranes offer cost-effectiveness for moderate purity requirements, while ceramic membranes handle higher temperatures and corrosive environments. Hybrid membrane-solvent systems combine the selectivity of membranes with the capacity of liquid absorption.

The key performance metrics are selectivity (CO₂/N₂ separation factor), permeability (flux rate), and durability under operational conditions. Trade-offs exist between these parameters—highly selective membranes often have lower permeability, requiring larger surface areas and higher capital costs.

Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs): The Breakthrough Class

MOFs represent the most significant materials innovation in carbon capture over the past decade. These crystalline materials with tuneable pore structures offer surface areas exceeding 6,000 m²/g—compared to 1,000-1,500 m²/g for conventional activated carbons. The November 2024 breakthrough at UC Berkeley demonstrated ZnH-MFU-4l, the first MOF capable of capturing CO₂ at 300°C—the actual temperature of cement and steel plant exhaust—eliminating the need for expensive cooling infrastructure that amine systems require.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Membrane retrofits for post-combustion capture are achieving commercial deployment at scale. The combination of modular design, no chemical handling requirements, and lower operational costs has made membranes the dominant segment in the carbon capture materials market. MarketsandMarkets identifies membranes as holding the largest market share due to efficiency, scalability, and ease of integration with existing industrial facilities.

MOF durability has reached industrial thresholds. CALF-20 surviving over 450,000 steam cycles represents a critical milestone—earlier MOF generations degraded rapidly under operational humidity. MUF-17 achieves equilibrium in under 60 seconds with 55.0 cm³/g CO₂ capacity, enabling faster cycling and smaller equipment footprints.

AI-accelerated materials discovery is compressing development timelines. The Al-PMOF material, discovered through computational screening of 325,000 hypothetical MOF structures, achieved 1.75 mol/kg capture capacity in dry conditions. Machine learning models now predict material performance before synthesis, reducing the trial-and-error burden that previously made MOF development prohibitively slow.

DAC solid sorbent commercialisation crossed a critical threshold in 2025. Climeworks delivered 81% of all DAC tonnes to date, with third-generation technology in validation since 2024. Svante's gigafactory for solid sorbent filters, capable of capturing 10 million tonnes CO₂ per year, represents manufacturing scale that was theoretical five years ago.

What Isn't Working

Cost parity remains elusive for DAC applications. Current DAC costs range from $400-1,000+ per tonne CO₂, far above the $100-200/tonne threshold required for mass adoption. While learning curves suggest 10-15% cost reductions per doubling of capacity, the industry has delivered only 1,186 tonnes against 2.47 million contracted tonnes (0.05% fulfilment rate)—indicating that cost projections may be optimistic.

High-temperature stability for industrial applications remains challenging outside laboratory conditions. While ZnH-MFU-4l demonstrates 300°C operation in controlled settings, real-world flue gases contain SOₓ, NOₓ, particulates, and variable humidity that degrade sorbent performance. Field trials at cement plants have shown 20-40% capacity reduction within the first year of operation.

Membrane fouling in complex gas streams continues to limit deployment. Polymeric membranes exposed to real industrial exhaust (rather than simulated mixtures) experience compaction and plasticisation that reduces selectivity over time. Ceramic membranes resist fouling but cost 3-5x more per square metre.

Scale-up of MOF synthesis from laboratory batches to industrial quantities introduces quality variability. Single-step synthesis protocols work at multi-kilogram scale, but tonne-scale production with consistent pore structure and surface area remains a manufacturing challenge. Batch-to-batch variation of 15-25% in capture capacity is common at current production scales.

Key Performance Indicators by Application

Application	Metric	Bottom Quartile	Median	Top Quartile
Point-Source Capture	Capture Rate	<75%	85-90%	>95%
Point-Source Capture	Energy Penalty	>35%	25-30%	<20%
Point-Source Capture	Sorbent/Membrane Life	<1 year	2-3 years	>5 years
Direct Air Capture	Cost per Tonne	>$800	$400-600	<$300
Direct Air Capture	Land Footprint	>2 ha/ktCO₂	1-1.5 ha/ktCO₂	<0.8 ha/ktCO₂
Direct Air Capture	Capacity Factor	<70%	80-85%	>90%
Industrial Heat	Operating Temp	<120°C	150-200°C	>250°C
Industrial Heat	Humidity Tolerance	<30% RH	40-60% RH	>80% RH

Key Players

Established Leaders

• Svante — Canadian company operating the world's first commercial gigafactory for solid sorbent filters, with capacity to produce filters capturing 10 million tonnes CO₂ annually. Technology deployed at 1-30 tonnes CO₂/day scale with clear path to industrial deployment.

• Climeworks — Swiss market leader delivering 81% of all DAC tonnes globally. Third-generation solid sorbent technology in validation since 2024, with AAA-rated certified facilities and 30+ operational projects. Pioneering premium carbon removal credits at $600-1,200/tonne.

• Linde — Industrial gas giant expanding CCUS activities through partnerships including the Jubail CO₂ project with Aramco and SLB (December 2024). Brings proven gas separation expertise and global distribution infrastructure.

• Air Liquide — Deploying membrane-based CO₂ separation across hydrogen production and natural gas processing. Cryogenic and membrane hybrid systems serve industrial clusters in Europe and North America.

Emerging Startups

• Carbyon — Dutch startup using semiconductor-inspired manufacturing for fast-swing solid sorbents achieving 90% saturation in 100 seconds. Winner of XPRIZE Carbon Removal Milestone Award. TNO spin-off with strong research credentials.

• Nuada — Achieving 95%+ capture efficiency at 95% purity with novel sorbent architecture. Targeting industrial point-source applications with modular deployment model.

• Sirona Technologies — Belgian company with ex-Tesla engineering leadership. Third-generation prototype achieved 100x efficiency increase over first-generation in under two years. $6.4M seed round closed in 2024.

• CarbonCapture Inc. — California-based company with Frontier offtake agreements and $35M Series A. Systems available to developers from 2025 using molecular sieve sorbents powered by renewable energy.

Key Investors & Funders

• Breakthrough Energy Ventures — Bill Gates-backed fund with significant positions in carbon capture materials companies including CarbonCapture Inc. and industrial decarbonisation plays.

• Lowercarbon Capital — Climate-focused VC with active portfolio in DAC and advanced materials. Early investor in multiple sorbent technology companies.

• UK Infrastructure Bank — Committed £500M to CCS infrastructure supporting materials deployment in UK industrial clusters.

• US Department of Energy — Allocated $3.5 billion to DAC hub development, creating anchor demand for solid sorbent manufacturers.

Examples

Climeworks' Mammoth Project (Iceland): The 36,000 tonnes/year facility launched in 2024-2025 represents the largest operational DAC plant globally. Using proprietary solid sorbent technology regenerated with geothermal heat, the plant achieves near-zero operational emissions. Key engineering achievement: modular collector units that can be manufactured centrally and deployed at remote sites with minimal on-site construction. The project demonstrated that AAA-rated, independently certified carbon removal at scale is technically achievable, even if costs remain elevated.

Svante's Cement Sector Deployment: Svante's solid sorbent technology has been deployed at LafargeHolcim cement facilities, capturing CO₂ from flue gas at 700+ tonnes/day. The system uses structured adsorbent contactors that achieve rapid cycling without the pressure drop penalties of packed beds. Critical learning: cement flue gas humidity and SO₂ content required custom sorbent formulations—standard DAC sorbents degraded within months. The 3-year material lifetime now achieved represents breakthrough durability for industrial conditions.

Northern Lights CO₂ Storage (Norway): The Shell/Equinor/TotalEnergies joint venture opened in September 2024 with 1.5 million tonnes/year storage capacity. While not a materials company, Northern Lights creates the downstream infrastructure that makes capture materials investments commercially viable. UK industrial emitters are already contracting for cross-border transport and storage, validating business models for membrane and sorbent deployments in British industrial clusters.

Action Checklist

• Map your CO₂ concentration and temperature profile before selecting between sorbent and membrane technologies—the optimal choice differs substantially between 4% (natural gas) and 20%+ (cement) concentrations
• Require pilot testing with actual flue gas composition, not simulated mixtures—impurities cause 20-40% performance degradation that laboratory tests miss
• Budget for 15-25% batch-to-batch variability when scaling MOF-based systems; specify acceptable performance ranges in procurement contracts
• Evaluate regeneration energy requirements against available waste heat or renewable electricity—energy costs dominate operational economics
• Confirm membrane suppliers provide fouling warranties and replacement schedules based on industrial (not laboratory) experience
• Model land footprint and water requirements for DAC installations—both can be limiting factors at industrial scale
• Secure offtake agreements or carbon credit pre-sales before finalising materials procurement—market access de-risks technology investments

FAQ

Q: Should we choose sorbents or membranes for a new point-source capture project? A: The decision depends primarily on CO₂ concentration and available energy. Membranes suit applications with 10-25% CO₂ concentration, continuous operation requirements, and limited low-grade heat availability. They excel when you need modularity and can accept 85-90% capture rates. Sorbents become preferable for higher capture rates (95%+), intermittent operation, or when waste heat is abundant for regeneration. For concentrations below 10%, solid sorbents typically outperform membranes. Many projects now deploy hybrid systems—membranes for bulk separation followed by sorbent polishing for high-purity streams.

Q: What is a realistic cost trajectory for DAC sorbent systems through 2030? A: Current fully-loaded costs range from $400-1,000/tonne CO₂. Industry projections suggest $200-350/tonne by 2030 based on manufacturing learning curves and increasing scale, but these projections carry substantial uncertainty. The critical unknown is whether MOF and advanced sorbent synthesis can achieve consistent quality at tonne-scale production. Conservative planning should assume $300-500/tonne by 2030, with upside if breakthrough manufacturing processes emerge. For compliance or voluntary offset planning, build sensitivity analysis around a $400/tonne central case.

Q: How do we evaluate sorbent durability claims from vendors? A: Request data from field deployments under comparable conditions to your application, not just laboratory cycling tests. Key questions: How many thermal cycles has the material survived in operation? What was the capacity degradation curve (not just initial and final capacity)? What gas stream impurities were present? Laboratory tests in clean CO₂/N₂ mixtures systematically overestimate real-world durability. The 450,000-cycle durability of CALF-20 under steam conditions represents a credible industrial benchmark—ask vendors to demonstrate comparable performance.

Q: What role do MOFs play versus conventional sorbents today? A: MOFs remain primarily in pilot and demonstration phases for most applications, with conventional amine-functionalized sorbents dominating commercial deployments. However, MOFs offer critical advantages for specific niches: high-temperature capture (ZnH-MFU-4l at 300°C), humid conditions (CALF-20, MOF-808-AA), and fast-cycling applications (MUF-17). For new projects with 2027+ deployment timelines, MOF-based systems merit serious evaluation. For projects deploying in 2025-2026, conventional sorbents with established supply chains present lower execution risk.

Q: What policy incentives affect materials selection in the UK? A: The UK's £20 billion CCS infrastructure commitment prioritises cluster-based deployment in Teesside, Humberside, and Scotland. Projects using mature technologies (TRL 7+) access favourable financing through the UK Infrastructure Bank and streamlined permitting. The Contracts for Difference scheme for industrial decarbonisation provides revenue certainty that supports capital-intensive membrane installations. For DAC specifically, the UK currently lacks the equivalent of US 45Q tax credits ($180/tonne for DAC with permanent storage), making commercial DAC deployment more challenging than in North America.

Sources

• MarketsandMarkets, "Carbon Capture Materials Market worth $99,098.5 million by 2030," October 2025
• Transparency Market Research, "Carbon Capture Sorbent Market Size, Analysis, and Forecast 2035," 2024
• UC Berkeley News, "Breakthrough in capturing 'hot' CO₂ from industrial exhaust," November 14, 2024
• International Energy Agency, "Direct Air Capture - Energy System," 2024
• CDR.fyi, "Direct Air Capture Market Snapshot," 2025
• MDPI Nanomaterials, "Carbon Dioxide Capture and Conversion Using Metal–Organic Framework (MOF) Materials: A Comprehensive Review," August 2024
• Science, "A scalable metal-organic framework as a durable physisorbent for carbon dioxide capture," 2021
• UK Government, "Autumn Budget 2024: CCS Infrastructure Investment," October 2024