Sustainability Atlas
Chemistry & Materials Science·11 min read··...

Trend watch: Carbon capture materials (sorbents, membranes) in 2026 — signals, winners, and red flags

Signals to watch, value pools, and how the landscape may shift over the next 12–24 months. Focus on data quality, standards alignment, and how to avoid measurement theater.

Global investment in carbon capture nearly doubled in 2023 to $11.33 billion, yet sorbents and membranes—the materials at the heart of capture technology—remain the critical bottleneck determining which projects succeed and which stall indefinitely. The carbon capture materials market reached $66.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit $99.1 billion by 2030, growing at 8.2% CAGR, according to MarketsandMarkets. Within this landscape, advanced sorbents and high-performance membranes are emerging as the decisive differentiators between capture facilities achieving 90% efficiency and those struggling to reach commercial viability.

Why It Matters

The urgency surrounding carbon capture materials extends far beyond laboratory curiosity. The International Energy Agency reports that global operational CCUS capacity stands at approximately 50 million tonnes CO₂ per year as of early 2025, with 8 new projects commissioned in 2024 alone. However, scaling to the 812 Mt/year capacity required by 2030 depends critically on material innovations that reduce both capital expenditure and operating costs.

For UK sustainability leads specifically, the dynamics are intensifying. The UK's £21.7 billion Carbon Capture and Storage Infrastructure Fund represents one of the largest national commitments globally, but accessing this funding requires demonstrating material performance metrics that many emerging technologies cannot yet achieve. The carbon capture sorbent market alone is valued at $2.0 billion in 2025, growing at 13.5% CAGR through 2035, with solid sorbents representing the fastest-growing segment at 18.25% CAGR according to Transparency Market Research.

Understanding the materials landscape is no longer optional for organizations with net-zero commitments. Material selection determines energy consumption during regeneration cycles, equipment sizing, and ultimately the $/tonne CO₂ economics that make or break project financing. With 75% of advanced CO₂ removal credits signed in 2024 directed toward DAC and BECCS technologies—both heavily dependent on next-generation sorbents—the stakes for getting material strategy right have never been higher.

Key Concepts

Sorbent Technologies: From Amines to MOFs

Sorbents are materials that chemically or physically bind CO₂ from gas streams. The technology hierarchy includes:

Amine-based sorbents dominate the current market, representing 55% of the sorbent segment in 2024. These materials offer proven performance but suffer from degradation over time and require significant thermal energy for regeneration—typically 2.5-4.0 GJ per tonne CO₂ captured.

Solid sorbents including zeolites, metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), and mesoporous silicas represent the frontier. MOFs particularly excite researchers due to their tunable porosity—engineers can essentially design the pore structure at molecular scales to optimize CO₂ selectivity. The challenge remains manufacturing cost; current MOF production runs $50-200/kg compared to $10-30/kg for conventional amine solutions.

Composite materials combining organic and inorganic phases are growing at 12.5% CAGR, offering pathways to balance performance with economics.

Membrane Technologies: The Modularity Advantage

Membranes hold the largest share of the carbon capture materials market for compelling reasons. Unlike absorption systems requiring large columns and significant heat input, membrane systems offer:

  • Modular, compact designs enabling retrofitting to existing facilities without major infrastructure overhauls
  • CO₂ capture rates up to 90% with advanced polymeric and ceramic formulations
  • Lower energy requirements by avoiding the thermal regeneration cycles that penalize sorbent systems
  • Suitability for high-pressure, high-temperature streams common in industrial applications

The membrane segment includes polymeric membranes (lower cost, moderate selectivity), ceramic membranes (high temperature tolerance), and emerging hybrid materials attempting to capture advantages of both.

KPIAmine SorbentsSolid Sorbents (MOFs)Polymeric MembranesCeramic Membranes
CO₂ Capture Rate85-95%80-92%70-85%85-95%
Regeneration Energy (GJ/tonne)2.5-4.01.5-2.5N/A (pressure-driven)N/A (pressure-driven)
Material Cost ($/kg)10-3050-20020-50100-300
Lifespan (years)2-55-10 (target)3-710-15
TRL Level95-77-86-7

What's Working

Industrial-Scale Sorbent Manufacturing Breakthroughs

Svante's May 2025 announcement marked a watershed moment: the company opened the world's first gigafactory for solid sorbent filters—a 140,000 square foot facility designed to supply projects capturing 10 million tonnes CO₂ per year. This represents a fundamental shift from boutique production to industrial-scale manufacturing, potentially driving the cost reductions necessary for widespread deployment.

The facility uses structured adsorbent contactors that concentrate CO₂ from industrial emissions or ambient air, with modular designs enabling rapid deployment. Importantly, Svante's approach addresses a critical pain point: standardization. By manufacturing pre-engineered sorbent modules rather than custom solutions, project developers can reduce engineering timelines from years to months.

Membrane Systems Gaining Refinery Adoption

Linde's December 2024 collaboration with Saudi Aramco and SLB on the Jubail CO₂ initiative demonstrates membrane technology's growing acceptance in hard-to-abate sectors. The project will deploy membrane-based separation systems as part of a 9 Mt/year capture hub—potentially the largest in the Middle East.

Green Plains' January 2025 Nebraska post-combustion CCS facility, capturing 1.2 million tonnes per year, represents another proof point. The project combines conventional absorption with membrane polishing stages to achieve the purity levels required for geological storage.

Hybrid Approaches Emerging

Wärtsilä's May 2025 marine carbon capture solution achieved 70% CO₂ reduction using a combination of sorbent beds and membrane contactors. The hybrid approach—using membranes for bulk separation and sorbents for polishing—may represent the optimal architecture for many applications, combining the energy efficiency of membranes with the selectivity of advanced sorbents.

What's Not Working

The Scale-Up Valley of Death

Despite promising laboratory results, many advanced sorbent technologies remain trapped between TRL 5-7, unable to demonstrate commercial performance at scale. Metal-organic frameworks exemplify this challenge: while academic papers routinely report exceptional CO₂ capacities, translating these results to industrial conditions with real flue gas (containing moisture, SOx, NOx, and particulates) often reveals dramatic performance degradation.

The fundamental issue is measurement theater. Laboratory metrics—measured with pure CO₂ streams, controlled temperatures, and optimized regeneration cycles—frequently fail to predict field performance. Organizations evaluating sorbent technologies must demand pilot data from realistic conditions, not idealized laboratory settings.

Membrane Durability Under Industrial Conditions

Polymeric membranes, while cost-effective, suffer from plasticization when exposed to high CO₂ partial pressures—the very conditions where they're needed most. Manufacturers often quote performance metrics from short-duration tests; longer-term studies reveal selectivity losses of 20-40% over 12-24 months of continuous operation.

Ceramic membranes resist plasticization but face different challenges: sealing high-temperature ceramic modules remains technically demanding, and thermal cycling can induce micro-cracking that degrades performance over time.

Economic Barriers Persist

Even as material performance improves, the economics remain challenging. The fundamental cost structure for sorbent-based capture includes:

  • Material replacement every 2-5 years
  • Regeneration energy costs representing 60-70% of operating expenditure
  • Compression and purification downstream of capture

At current energy prices and carbon credit valuations, most sorbent-based projects require policy support (such as the US $85/tonne 45Q tax credit) to achieve positive economics. This policy dependence creates project risk that complicates financing.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Svante (Canada) — Pioneer in solid sorbent manufacturing with the world's first gigafactory; targeting industrial decarbonization and DAC applications. Their structured adsorbent contactors represent the current state-of-the-art in deployable sorbent technology.

Air Liquide (France) — Major industrial gas company with significant membrane separation capabilities; actively developing next-generation polymeric and hybrid membrane systems for carbon capture applications.

Honeywell UOP (USA) — Leveraging decades of refinery gas processing experience to develop carbon capture membrane systems; strong position in retrofitting existing industrial facilities.

BASF (Germany) — Leading chemical company with sorbent material development programs; significant IP portfolio in amine-based and solid sorbent formulations.

Emerging Startups

Climeworks (Switzerland) — DAC pioneer deploying solid sorbent technology at commercial scale; Mammoth facility targeting 36,000 tonnes/year represents the largest DAC plant currently operational.

Carbon Clean (UK) — Developing modular carbon capture systems with proprietary solvents achieving 90%+ capture rates; targeting hard-to-abate industrial sectors.

Mosaic Materials (USA) — MOF specialist focused on diamine-appended materials with exceptional CO₂ selectivity; progressing from laboratory to pilot scale.

Key Investors & Funders

Breakthrough Energy Ventures — Bill Gates-backed fund with significant portfolio in carbon capture materials and technology development.

UK Infrastructure Bank — Positioned to deploy capital into UK CCUS projects meeting material performance thresholds.

EU Innovation Fund — $1.5 billion committed to CCUS projects, with material innovation representing a key evaluation criterion.

Examples

  1. Svante's Gigafactory Launch (May 2025): The company's 140,000 sq ft manufacturing facility in Point Tupper, Canada represents the first industrial-scale solid sorbent filter production line globally. The facility is designed to supply sorbent modules for projects capturing up to 10 million tonnes CO₂ annually, demonstrating that advanced materials can transition from laboratory curiosity to industrial commodity. Early customers include cement manufacturers and natural gas processing facilities in North America.

  2. Green Plains Nebraska CCS Project (January 2025): This post-combustion capture facility at a bioethanol plant demonstrates membrane and sorbent hybrid approaches at commercial scale. Capturing 1.2 million tonnes CO₂ per year, the project uses membrane contactors for bulk separation combined with amine polishing stages. The economics work partly due to the high-purity CO₂ stream from fermentation, illustrating how feedstock quality dramatically affects material requirements.

  3. Moomba CCS Project (Australia): Santos's project demonstrates that depleted reservoir storage can achieve lifecycle costs below $30/tonne when combined with optimized capture materials. The project uses membrane-based separation from natural gas processing—a relatively easier application than power plant flue gas—but provides cost benchmarks that other projects must target to achieve commercial viability without policy support.

Action Checklist

  • Audit your emission sources to characterize CO₂ concentration, temperature, pressure, and contaminant profiles—material selection depends critically on these parameters
  • Demand pilot-scale data from technology vendors showing performance under conditions matching your specific application; reject laboratory-only metrics
  • Model total cost of ownership including material replacement cycles, regeneration energy, and downstream processing—not just capital expenditure
  • Evaluate hybrid architectures combining membrane bulk separation with sorbent polishing to optimize both capital and operating costs
  • Engage with policy mechanisms in your jurisdiction (UK CCS Infrastructure Fund, EU Innovation Fund, US 45Q) to understand how material performance thresholds affect funding eligibility
  • Track manufacturing scale-up timelines from key suppliers—availability constraints may limit project timelines regardless of technical suitability

FAQ

Q: Which material technology—sorbents or membranes—will dominate carbon capture by 2030? A: Neither will dominate universally. The optimal choice depends on CO₂ concentration, temperature, pressure, and purity requirements. High-concentration streams (natural gas processing, cement) favor membranes for energy efficiency. Low-concentration streams (power plant flue gas, DAC) often require sorbents for adequate selectivity. Expect hybrid approaches combining both technologies to become standard for many applications.

Q: What is the realistic cost per tonne for sorbent-based capture today versus 2030 targets? A: Current commercial sorbent systems achieve $50-100/tonne CO₂ for industrial applications and $400-1000/tonne for direct air capture. Industry roadmaps target $30-50/tonne for industrial capture and $100-200/tonne for DAC by 2030, contingent on material cost reductions of 50-70% and regeneration energy improvements of 30-40%. These targets are aggressive but achievable given manufacturing scale-up underway.

Q: How should we evaluate vendor claims about sorbent or membrane performance? A: Focus on three critical data points: (1) Demonstrated capture rate under realistic gas compositions including contaminants, (2) Performance degradation over extended operating periods (months, not hours), and (3) Regeneration energy requirements measured at commercial scale. Be skeptical of pure-CO₂ laboratory results and short-duration tests. Request references from operating facilities with similar applications.

Q: What regulatory standards should UK organizations track for carbon capture materials? A: The UK's CCUS business models include capture rate thresholds (typically 90%+) and monitoring requirements that implicitly set material performance standards. ISO 27914 (carbon capture) and ISO 27915 (CO₂ transport) provide international frameworks. The EU ETS and UK ETS methodologies for calculating captured CO₂ credits also establish effective performance floors. Organizations should engage with BEIS/DESNZ guidance documents as the regulatory framework continues evolving.

Sources

Topics

carboncaptureriskstandardssorbentscatalysisopex

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