Sustainability Atlas
Food, Agriculture & Materials·14 min read··...

Trend analysis: Regenerative agriculture — where the value pools are (and who captures them)

Signals to watch, value pools, and how the landscape may shift over the next 12–24 months. Focus on implementation trade-offs, stakeholder incentives, and the hidden bottlenecks.

Europe's regenerative agriculture market reached approximately €3.7 billion in 2024, with projections indicating growth to €12 billion by 2034 at a compound annual growth rate of 12.5%. Yet despite this explosive trajectory, fewer than 5% of EU farms have meaningfully adopted regenerative practices, and the distribution of value creation across the supply chain remains deeply asymmetric. The 2024 European Agroecology Research Association study—the largest field study of its kind, spanning 78 farms across 14 countries and more than 7,000 hectares—revealed that regenerative farms achieve 20% higher gross margins while using 62% less synthetic nitrogen and 76% fewer pesticides. These findings reframe the central question: not whether regenerative agriculture works, but who captures the economic surplus it generates, and what systemic barriers prevent faster adoption.

Why It Matters

The EU's agricultural sector accounts for approximately 10% of total greenhouse gas emissions, with soil degradation costing member states an estimated €50 billion annually in lost productivity and ecosystem services. Against this backdrop, the European Green Deal's Farm to Fork Strategy has set ambitious targets: 25% of farmland under organic management and a 50% reduction in pesticide use by 2030. Regenerative agriculture represents the primary pathway to achieving these goals while maintaining—or even improving—farm profitability.

In 2024, the EU adopted the Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), establishing standardized QU.A.L.ITY criteria (Quantification, Additionality, Long-term storage, and Sustainability) for carbon removals. This regulatory milestone enables farmers to monetize soil carbon sequestration through verified credits for the first time at EU scale. Simultaneously, corporate demand for scope 3 emissions reductions has created unprecedented buyer interest: Nestlé has committed CHF 1.2 billion through 2025 to source 50% of key ingredients from regenerative farms by 2030, while ADM expanded its European regenerative programme to 9,000 hectares across the UK and Eastern Europe in 2024.

The 2024-2025 period marks an inflection point. The EARA study demonstrated that regenerative farms achieve a Regenerating Full Productivity Index 27% higher than conventional operations, producing equivalent caloric and protein yields while dramatically reducing input costs. If applied to half of EU farmland, these practices could offset more than 500 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually—roughly three times current EU agricultural emissions. The value pools are substantial; the question is who positions themselves to capture them.

Key Concepts

Regenerative Agriculture encompasses farming practices that restore soil health, enhance biodiversity, and sequester atmospheric carbon while maintaining or improving yields. Unlike organic certification, which primarily defines prohibited inputs, regenerative agriculture focuses on outcomes: increased soil organic carbon, improved water retention, enhanced microbial diversity, and reduced erosion. The absence of a protected legal definition in EU law creates both opportunity and risk, enabling innovation while permitting greenwashing.

MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification) refers to the protocols and technologies used to quantify environmental outcomes from agricultural practices. Digital MRV (dMRV) combines satellite imagery, AI-driven analysis, and stratified soil sampling to verify carbon sequestration at scale. The cost and accuracy of MRV systems represent the primary operational bottleneck: verification costs range from €5 to €30 per hectare depending on methodology, while permanence guarantees (typically 20-50 years) create long-term liability exposure for credit issuers.

LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) provides a standardized methodology for evaluating environmental impacts across the entire production chain, from input manufacturing through consumption and disposal. In regenerative contexts, LCA enables comparison of upstream input reductions (fertiliser, pesticides, fuel) against downstream carbon storage, revealing that farms transitioning to regenerative practices often achieve net-negative emissions within 3-7 years.

Supply Chain Integration describes the commercial arrangements through which regenerative premiums flow from end consumers to farmers. Current structures typically involve three value pools: input cost savings (captured by farmers), carbon credit revenues (shared between farmers, aggregators, and verification bodies), and premium pricing for certified products (largely captured by processors and retailers). The distribution of these value pools determines whether regenerative transitions generate durable farmer incentives.

OPEX (Operational Expenditure) considerations dominate farmer decision-making during the 2-4 year transition period when yield dips may occur before soil health improvements manifest. Cover crop seeds, new equipment for reduced tillage, and agronomic advisory services create upfront costs ranging from €100 to €400 per hectare, while input cost reductions and carbon credit revenues typically require 18-36 months to materialise. This OPEX gap represents the primary adoption barrier for small and medium-sized farms.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Corporate Pre-Financing Models: Large food companies have recognised that achieving scope 3 targets requires direct investment in farm transitions rather than merely demanding certified inputs. ADM and Bayer's 2024 collaboration in Poland provides agronomic support and guaranteed offtake agreements to farmers implementing regenerative practices on 9,000 hectares of oilseed rape, achieving 15-40% emissions reductions while insulating farmers from transition-period price risk. PepsiCo's pep+ Positive Agriculture initiative has enrolled 150 olive growers in Spain within a pilot targeting 4 million hectares globally by 2030, demonstrating that brand-owned supply chain interventions can accelerate adoption where commodity markets fail.

Aggregated Carbon Credit Programmes: Platforms like Agreena have achieved the scale necessary to reduce per-hectare MRV costs while maintaining verification integrity. Agreena's 2024 milestone of 2.3 million Verified Carbon Standard credits across 1.6 million hectares in 10 European countries demonstrates that digital MRV can enable profitable carbon credit generation for farms as small as 50 hectares. The pre-purchase model—exemplified by Radisson Hotel Group's credit offtake agreements—provides farmers with revenue certainty before sequestration occurs.

Policy-Aligned Certification: France's Label Bas-Carbone and the EU's CRCF framework have created credible certification pathways that align national and supranational standards. ReSoil's model, which has enrolled 40,000 hectares in France and achieved 300,000 tonnes of CO₂ reduction commitments, demonstrates that government-backed certification can unlock both corporate purchases and agricultural subsidies, creating stacked revenue streams for participating farmers.

What Isn't Working

Fragmented MRV Standards: Despite the CRCF's adoption, the European carbon farming landscape remains characterised by competing methodologies with inconsistent baselines, monitoring protocols, and permanence requirements. Farmers face confusion when choosing between Verra's VM0042, Gold Standard's soil carbon methodologies, and national schemes like Label Bas-Carbone, while buyers struggle to compare credits across standards. This fragmentation increases transaction costs and undermines market liquidity.

Small Farm Aggregation Economics: While aggregation platforms have reduced per-hectare costs, the fixed costs of onboarding, training, and monitoring remain prohibitive for farms below 30-50 hectares. Approximately 65% of EU farms fall below this threshold, creating a systematic exclusion of smallholders from carbon markets. Cooperative models and national agricultural extension services have yet to develop scalable solutions for aggregating micro-farms into viable carbon projects.

Transition Period Financing: The 2-4 year gap between initial investment and realised returns remains the primary adoption barrier. Current financing mechanisms—dominated by carbon credit advance payments and corporate pre-financing—reach fewer than 10% of eligible farms. Public agricultural support through the Common Agricultural Policy has been slow to incorporate regenerative transition payments, and commercial lenders lack the risk models to underwrite regenerative conversions as a distinct asset class.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Nestlé has committed CHF 1.2 billion through 2025 to regenerative agriculture, targeting 50% of key ingredients from regenerative sources by 2030. The company's direct farmer engagement programmes span dairy, coffee, and vegetable supply chains across Europe.

Danone has pledged €2 billion globally for regenerative agriculture, with significant EU operations in dairy and specialty ingredients. The company's Farming for Generations programme provides multi-year contracts and technical assistance to transitioning farms.

ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) operates the re:generations programme, which expanded to 5 million acres globally in 2024 with a growing European footprint across the UK, Poland, and Eastern Europe for wheat, corn, barley, and oilseed rape.

Unilever has 100,000 hectares under operational regenerative management with agreements covering 350,000 hectares globally, including substantial European sourcing for oils, dairy, and vegetables.

Cargill has committed to advancing regenerative agriculture across 10 million acres of North American farmland while expanding European pilot programmes in partnership with regional food manufacturers.

Emerging Startups

Agreena (Denmark) operates Europe's largest soil carbon programme, having generated 2.3 million Verra-verified carbon credits across 1.6 million hectares in 10 countries through its digital MRV platform.

Soil Capital (Belgium) raised a $16.2 million Series B in September 2024 to expand its regenerative agriculture platform, which serves over 1,000 European farms with carbon credit generation and agronomic support.

Klim (Germany) secured a $22 million Series A in 2024 from BNP Paribas, Rabobank, and Earthshot Ventures. The platform supports 3,500 farmers managing 700,000 hectares with digital tools for practice tracking and carbon credit verification.

ReSoil (France) closed €4 million in December 2024 from Banque des Territoires and INCO Ventures. The company monitors 100,000 hectares and serves 80 corporate clients seeking Label Bas-Carbone certified carbon reductions.

Climate Farmers (Germany) is building a pan-European carbon farming registry to prevent double-counting and greenwashing, with over 700 farmers enrolled in its digital MRV and methodology development programmes.

Key Investors & Funders

BNP Paribas has emerged as a leading bank investor in European agri-climate startups, participating in Klim's $22 million Series A and developing green lending products for regenerative transitions.

Rabobank leverages its agricultural banking expertise to provide transition financing and has invested in multiple regenerative agriculture platforms including Klim.

HeavyFinance launched a €50 million regenerative agriculture debt fund in 2024, backed by €20 million from the European Investment Fund through InvestEU, providing accessible credit to small and medium-sized farms.

World Fund (Berlin) operates as a dedicated climate VC writing €1-10 million cheques into early and growth-stage startups across food, energy, and manufacturing decarbonisation.

Earthshot Ventures focuses specifically on carbon and nature-based solutions, backing companies like Klim that combine technology with agricultural transformation.

Examples

ADM and Bayer Poland Collaboration (2024): In 2024, ADM and Bayer launched a regenerative agriculture programme covering 9,000 hectares of oilseed rape production in Poland. Participating farmers receive agronomic advisory services, access to cover crop seeds, and guaranteed offtake at pre-agreed prices. Preliminary results indicate 15-40% reductions in per-hectare carbon emissions, with plans to expand into corn, wheat, and barley across Eastern Europe. The programme demonstrates that integrated supply chain partnerships can de-risk farmer transitions while securing verified low-carbon feedstocks.

Agreena AgreenaCarbon Pan-European Programme (2024): Agreena's platform achieved a landmark 2.3 million Verified Carbon Standard credits in 2024, representing verified soil carbon sequestration across 1.6 million hectares in Denmark, the UK, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Spain, and eight other countries. The company employs a hybrid MRV approach combining satellite imagery, machine learning, and stratified soil sampling to verify additionality and permanence under Verra's VM0042 methodology. Corporate buyers including Radisson Hotel Group have pre-purchased credits, providing farmers with revenue certainty while Agreena manages aggregation, verification, and sales.

ReSoil France Label Bas-Carbone Programme (2024): French startup ReSoil monitors 100,000 hectares through its agroecological transition platform, with 40,000 hectares in active carbon credit production under France's Label Bas-Carbone national certification. The company serves 80 corporate clients seeking verified emissions reductions for scope 3 reporting, generating 300,000 tonnes of CO₂ reduction commitments. ReSoil's model demonstrates that national certification schemes can create robust demand signals when aligned with EU frameworks.

Action Checklist

  • Conduct soil baseline assessment using accredited laboratories to establish carbon stock and health metrics before implementing practice changes
  • Evaluate MRV provider options across Verra VM0042, Gold Standard, and Label Bas-Carbone pathways to identify the optimal certification route for your operation and target buyers
  • Model transition-period cash flow including cover crop inputs, equipment modifications, and yield variation scenarios over 36 months
  • Identify corporate offtake partners through aggregation platforms or direct outreach to food companies with public regenerative sourcing commitments
  • Explore CAP eco-scheme payments and national regenerative agriculture subsidies that can stack with carbon credit revenues
  • Engage with farmer cooperatives or aggregation platforms to reduce per-hectare MRV and transaction costs through collective enrolment
  • Develop agronomic expertise through extension service partnerships, university programmes, or peer networks of regenerative practitioners
  • Structure contracts to retain upside participation in carbon credit price appreciation while securing minimum revenue floors
  • Monitor EU CRCF implementing legislation and national transposition timelines to anticipate new certification requirements and opportunities
  • Document practice changes, input applications, and monitoring data systematically to support verification audits and continuous improvement

FAQ

Q: How long does it take for a farm to become profitable under regenerative practices? A: Transition timelines vary significantly based on starting soil health, local climate, and chosen practices. The 2024 EARA study found that farms implementing comprehensive regenerative approaches typically experience a 2-4 year transition period during which yields may dip 5-15% while soil biology rebuilds. Input cost reductions (particularly synthetic nitrogen and pesticides) often materialise within 18-24 months, while carbon credit revenues require completion of at least one verification cycle. Full profitability—including margin improvements from input savings, carbon revenues, and premium pricing—typically emerges by year 3-5, with mature regenerative farms achieving 20% or higher gross margin improvements relative to conventional benchmarks.

Q: What distinguishes legitimate regenerative agriculture from greenwashing? A: Three criteria distinguish credible regenerative claims: outcome-based measurement, third-party verification, and practice specificity. Legitimate programmes measure actual soil carbon increases, biodiversity improvements, or input reductions rather than merely documenting practice adoption. Third-party verification under established standards like Verra VCS or Label Bas-Carbone provides independent assurance, while specific practice documentation enables traceability. The EU CRCF's QU.A.L.ITY criteria (Quantification, Additionality, Long-term storage, Sustainability) provide a regulatory framework for distinguishing verified removals from marketing claims. Buyers should request methodology documentation, monitoring data, and certificate registry entries.

Q: How do small farms access regenerative agriculture carbon markets given high MRV costs? A: Aggregation represents the primary pathway for small farms to achieve economically viable carbon credit generation. Platforms like Agreena, Klim, and Climate Farmers pool multiple farms into single verification projects, distributing fixed MRV costs across larger hectare bases. Cooperative structures can further reduce costs by centralising agronomic support and data collection. National extension services in countries like France have begun offering subsidised MRV support, while HeavyFinance's €50 million fund provides accessible credit specifically designed for small and medium farms. Minimum viable farm sizes have decreased from approximately 100 hectares in 2022 to 30-50 hectares in 2024 through improved digital MRV technologies.

Q: What role will the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework play in market development? A: The CRCF, adopted in 2024, establishes the first EU-wide regulatory framework for certifying carbon removals including soil carbon sequestration. The framework's implementing legislation, expected in 2025-2026, will create harmonised certification criteria that resolve current fragmentation between national schemes and private standards. DG CLIMA's 2025 recommendations suggest the EU may establish a direct purchase mechanism for carbon farming credits, beginning with agroforestry and peatland rewetting before expanding to arable regenerative practices. For market participants, the CRCF creates regulatory certainty that should increase buyer confidence and credit prices while potentially displacing non-compliant private standards.

Q: What are the primary risks for investors in regenerative agriculture startups? A: Investors face four principal risk categories: regulatory uncertainty as CRCF implementing rules finalise, technology risk around MRV accuracy and cost reduction trajectories, market risk from carbon credit price volatility, and execution risk in scaling farmer networks. The 2024-2025 wave of Series A and B financing (Soil Capital $16.2M, Klim $22M, ReSoil €4M) suggests investor confidence in the sector, but returns depend on whether regenerative agriculture transitions from voluntary corporate commitments to mandatory supply chain requirements. Investors should evaluate startups on farmer retention metrics, MRV cost structures, and buyer concentration alongside traditional growth indicators.

Sources

Topics

regenerativeagricultureriskMRVLCAopexsupply chain

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