Sustainability Atlas
Policy, Standards & Strategy·13 min read··...

Trend watch: behavior change & climate communications in 2026

myths vs. realities, backed by recent evidence. Focus on a city or utility pilot and the results so far.

In 2024, the largest-ever global intervention tournament on climate communication—spanning 59,440 participants across 63 countries—delivered a sobering yet instructive finding: even the most carefully designed behavioral interventions produced effects of only 2–12% improvement in climate beliefs, policy support, and information-sharing behaviors (Vlasceanu et al., Science Advances, 2024). Meanwhile, a parallel study published in PNAS tested 17 psychological strategies across 7,624 participants, confirming that while accessible tools exist, their impact remains modest when deployed in isolation. These findings reshape how practitioners, policymakers, and communicators must approach climate messaging in 2026: the era of expecting dramatic behavior shifts from clever campaigns is over, replaced by a more nuanced understanding that small, compounding effects—when systematically applied across millions—can still drive meaningful collective action.

The convergence of advanced AI analytics, immersive technologies like virtual reality, and rigorous experimental research has transformed climate communications from an art into an evidence-based discipline. As Amsterdam becomes the first major city to ban fossil fuel advertising (effective January 1, 2025), and as the European Court of Human Rights issues landmark rulings on governmental climate obligations, the communications landscape in 2026 demands strategic precision rather than aspirational messaging. This trend analysis examines what the latest evidence tells us about influencing climate-related behaviors, which approaches are delivering measurable results, where investments are flowing, and how organizations can build effective communication strategies grounded in empirical reality.

Why It Matters

Climate behavior change sits at the intersection of individual agency and systemic transformation. While structural policy interventions—carbon pricing, renewable energy mandates, building codes—provide the scaffolding for decarbonization, the speed and equity of the transition depend substantially on how populations perceive, accept, and engage with these changes. Research from Nature's Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (2025) demonstrates that perceived inequality in climate policy burdens significantly reduces public willingness to adopt mitigation behaviors, making communications that address fairness concerns essential for policy durability.

The economic stakes are substantial. The global climate communications and behavior change market—encompassing corporate sustainability messaging, government awareness campaigns, and technology-enabled nudging platforms—has grown to an estimated $4.2 billion annually, with projections suggesting 18% compound annual growth through 2030. However, the PwC State of Climate Tech 2024 report reveals that only 7.5% of climate tech funding historically flowed to adaptation and behavior-focused solutions, indicating significant underinvestment relative to the sector's potential impact.

From a policy perspective, the stakes extend beyond individual choices. The SEC's climate disclosure rules, the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), and emerging global standards under the ISSB framework all require companies to demonstrate stakeholder engagement and behavior change outcomes. Communications are no longer optional brand exercises but compliance-adjacent activities with material financial implications.

Key Concepts

Understanding modern climate communications requires fluency in several foundational concepts that distinguish evidence-based practice from intuition-driven messaging.

Psychological Distance refers to the perceived temporal, spatial, social, and hypothetical remoteness of climate impacts. The 2024 global intervention tournament found that decreasing psychological distance—making climate change feel immediate, local, and personally relevant—increased climate beliefs by 2.3%. Effective communicators use localized climate projections, community-specific vulnerability assessments, and "near-term horizon" framing rather than abstract 2050 scenarios.

Experience-Based Communication leverages immersive technologies to bypass analytical processing limitations. A 2024 study in Environmental Communication demonstrated that virtual reality experiences simulating climate impacts outperformed traditional information approaches, enhancing efficacy beliefs and producing measurable real-world behavior changes, including reduced beef consumption. The mechanism operates through non-analytical cognitive systems that respond to experiential rather than statistical evidence.

Values-Based Framing acknowledges that climate action motivations vary across demographic and psychographic segments. Research consistently shows that framing climate action around co-benefits—health improvements, cost savings, community resilience, quality of life—produces higher engagement than sacrifice-oriented messaging. The "persuasion in parallel" hypothesis, supported by 2024 G20 messaging studies, suggests that different groups update their views by similar magnitudes when exposed to appropriately framed messages.

Behavioral Spillover describes how adoption of one sustainable behavior influences the likelihood of adopting others. Positive spillover occurs when initial actions create identity-consistent patterns; negative spillover occurs when one action provides "moral licensing" to avoid others. Strategic communicators sequence behavior change asks to maximize positive spillover effects.

What's Working

Urgency and Generational Framing

Cross-national research testing climate messages across 23 countries (N=57,968) found that "Urgency & Generational" messaging produced the strongest effects overall. Messages invoking responsibility to future generations and time-sensitive action windows outperformed technical, economic, or purely environmental frames. Critically, these effects held across political spectrums, with marginally stronger effects among politically conservative audiences—contradicting assumptions that urgency messaging alienates skeptical populations.

Community-Designed Interventions

The ICLEI USA Climate & Sustainability Communications Cohort (August–October 2024) trained local governments in co-designed communication strategies. Municipalities that engaged community members in message development reported higher policy acceptance rates and stronger participation in voluntary programs. The approach embeds equity considerations directly into communication design rather than treating them as afterthoughts.

Immersive and Interactive Platforms

Tools like Climate Central's "Surging Seas: Risk Finder" and Google's "Your Plan, Your Planet" demonstrate the power of personalized, interactive climate data. By transforming abstract statistics into localized, actionable insights, these platforms achieve engagement rates 3–5x higher than static infographics. The key mechanism is agency: users feel empowered to explore scenarios rather than passively receiving predetermined conclusions.

Sector-Specific KPI Benchmarks

Organizations measuring climate communication effectiveness should track metrics aligned with their strategic objectives:

SectorPrimary KPIBenchmark RangeMeasurement Method
Consumer GoodsPurchase Intent Shift3–8% liftA/B tested campaigns
UtilitiesProgram Enrollment Rate12–25% of eligible customersCampaign attribution
GovernmentPolicy Support Score+2.5–6% shiftPre/post polling
Financial ServicesESG Fund Inflows15–30% YoY growthAsset tracking
HealthcareBehavior Adoption Rate8–18% improvementClinical/survey data
EducationKnowledge Retention>70% at 6 monthsAssessment testing
Real EstateGreen Premium Acceptance4–9% price toleranceTransaction analysis

What's Not Working

Fear-Based Imagery Without Agency

Despite intuitive appeal, doom-and-gloom messaging consistently underperforms. While the 2024 global tournament found that negative emotion framing increased information sharing by 12.1%, it failed to produce behavioral follow-through—and for effortful behaviors like tree planting, actually reduced participation rates in half of tested interventions. Fear immobilizes when unaccompanied by efficacy-building content that demonstrates pathways to meaningful action.

Generic Nudges Without Structural Support

A prominent 2024 study testing "cost-effective nudging" on meat consumption found no measurable effect. The finding aligns with broader evidence that individual-level interventions cannot substitute for upstream policy changes. Effective behavior change strategies require integration: downstream communications work best when paired with upstream structural modifications (pricing, availability, infrastructure) that make sustainable choices default or convenient.

One-Size-Fits-All Global Campaigns

Messaging that works in high-income, high-baseline-awareness markets often fails in contexts with different cultural values, economic priorities, and information ecologies. The "WEIRD country bias" in climate communication research—with most studies conducted in Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic populations—limits generalizability. The UNICEF Climate Innovation Challenge (2025) highlighted that 79% of applications came from Global South contexts with fundamentally different communication needs than those addressed by mainstream research.

Ignoring Behavioral Resistance Patterns

Research consistently identifies meat consumption and private vehicle use as the behaviors most resistant to communication-based interventions. These domains involve identity, convenience, and social signaling in ways that require more than informational interventions. Effective strategies in these areas combine infrastructure investments (plant-based options, transit alternatives) with social norm messaging that makes alternatives visible and aspirational.

Key Players

Established Leaders

Climate Outreach (Oxford, UK) remains the leading specialist consultancy on climate communication, pioneering research-based messaging frameworks including the "Britain Talks Climate" segmentation model. Their work with governments, NGOs, and corporations emphasizes values-based framing and narrative testing.

Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (USA) produces the definitive "Climate Opinion Maps" tracking public attitudes across demographic and geographic segments. Their "Six Americas" segmentation framework remains the industry standard for audience targeting.

More in Common (Global) conducts deep attitudinal research across 15+ countries, identifying "persuadable middle" segments often overlooked by polarized climate discourse. Their "Perception Gaps" research reveals how misperceptions about out-group attitudes impede productive dialogue.

Rare (Washington, DC) has implemented behavior change campaigns in 60+ countries, focusing on conservation behaviors. Their "Pride Campaigns" use community-based social marketing and local champions to shift norms around fishing, land use, and waste.

ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability (Global) provides frameworks and training for municipal climate communications, reaching over 2,500 local and regional governments worldwide.

Emerging Startups

Terra.do offers climate education programs for professionals and public servants, using cohort-based learning to drive behavior change through knowledge and community. The platform has trained over 12,000 climate professionals since 2020.

Winnow deploys AI-powered food waste monitoring in commercial kitchens, using real-time feedback to drive staff behavior changes that reduce waste by 50%. The platform operates in 2,700+ commercial kitchens globally, including IKEA locations.

Joro provides personalized carbon footprint tracking for consumers, using transaction data to recommend behavior modifications. The app gamifies reduction through social features and achievement tracking.

Doconomy (Sweden) enables financial institutions to embed carbon tracking into banking apps, making environmental impact visible at the point of purchase—a "micro-nudge" approach to consumption behavior.

Key Investors & Funders

Breakthrough Energy Ventures (Bill Gates-backed) has invested over $2 billion in climate technologies, including platforms with behavior change components like carbon accounting and food systems innovation.

Lowercarbon Capital (Chris Sacca, co-founder) focuses on early-stage climate tech, including companies addressing consumer behavior and carbon marketplaces.

World Fund (€350M, Europe) applies rigorous "Climate Performance Potential" methodology to investments, including behavior-focused solutions in food, mobility, and built environment sectors.

ClimateWorks Foundation provides philanthropic capital for climate communications research and implementation, funding organizations including Climate Outreach and the Yale Program.

European Climate Foundation supports policy advocacy and public engagement campaigns across Europe, with particular emphasis on just transition messaging.

Examples

1. Amsterdam Fossil Fuel Advertising Ban

Effective January 1, 2025, Amsterdam became the first major city globally to prohibit advertising for fossil fuels, air travel, and cruise ships. The policy emerged from citizen climate assemblies and extensive public consultation, demonstrating how participatory governance increases acceptance of restrictive measures. Early monitoring suggests the ban has shifted advertising inventory toward sustainable alternatives without measurable economic harm to the outdoor advertising sector. The campaign provides a template for other European cities considering similar measures under EU Green Deal frameworks.

2. Action for Climate Finance (ACF) Media Campaign

The 2024 ACF campaign achieved 68 media placements reaching 2.03 million people, with coverage in The Guardian, BBC World Service, Reuters, Forbes, and Financial Times. The campaign used country-specific climate finance snapshots and digital engagement toolkits to translate technical funding gap data into compelling narratives. By focusing on food systems transformation as an entry point, ACF connected abstract climate finance needs to tangible agricultural and nutrition outcomes resonant with diverse audiences.

3. Smart Power India – "Solar se Samriddhi" Campaign

Operating in Varanasi and Mirzapur districts of Uttar Pradesh, this campaign promoted rooftop solar adoption among small and medium enterprises through a 360-degree communication approach: toll-free helplines, mobile applications, village-level "solar yatras" (journeys), audio-visual content in Hindi, and printed materials. The hyperlocal strategy addressed behavior change barriers specific to the target population, including trust deficits, technical knowledge gaps, and financing uncertainty. Early results indicate 40% higher inquiry rates compared to conventional advertising approaches.

Action Checklist

  • Conduct audience segmentation research using validated frameworks (e.g., Yale's "Six Americas," Climate Outreach's "Britain Talks Climate") before developing messaging
  • Test messages with representative samples using A/B methodologies before full deployment; budget 10–15% of campaign resources for testing
  • Frame climate action around co-benefits (health, cost savings, community) rather than sacrifice narratives
  • Combine downstream communications with upstream structural interventions (pricing, availability, infrastructure) for reinforcing effects
  • Incorporate interactive and experiential elements where possible; static information underperforms immersive engagement
  • Track sector-appropriate KPIs with baseline measurements and 6–12 month follow-up to assess durable behavior change
  • Engage community members in co-design processes, particularly for policy-adjacent communications, to increase acceptance and equity
  • Develop contingency messaging for multiple policy scenarios; preparedness enables rapid, coherent response to emerging developments

FAQ

Q: Do climate communications actually change behavior, or just awareness? A: Evidence from the 2024 global intervention tournament and PNAS studies confirms that well-designed communications produce measurable—though modest—behavior changes averaging 2–12% across outcomes. The key is targeting specific behaviors with appropriately framed messages and realistic expectations: individual campaigns shift populations incrementally, but systematic application across millions can produce significant aggregate effects.

Q: What's the most effective single message framing for climate action? A: Research consistently shows no universal "best" message, as effectiveness varies by audience segment and target behavior. However, "Urgency & Generational" framing produced the strongest average effects across 23 countries in 2024 testing. Messages combining time-sensitivity with responsibility to future generations outperformed purely economic, technical, or environmental frames.

Q: How should organizations handle climate skeptics in their audience? A: The 2024 global tournament found that most interventions had limited effects on climate skeptics specifically. Rather than designing campaigns to convert skeptics, evidence supports focusing resources on "persuadable middle" segments where communications produce measurable returns. For organizational contexts requiring skeptic engagement, values-based framing emphasizing economic opportunity, energy independence, or community resilience shows more traction than science-forward messaging.

Q: Are social media campaigns effective for climate behavior change? A: Social media excels at information sharing (negative emotion framing increased sharing by 12.1%) but underperforms for behavior conversion. The medium's attention dynamics favor engagement metrics over sustained behavior change. Effective strategies use social media for awareness and list-building while directing engaged audiences to deeper engagement channels—events, courses, commitment devices—where behavior change interventions can operate.

Q: How do we measure ROI on climate communications investment? A: ROI measurement requires defining appropriate KPIs by sector and objective (see table above), establishing baselines, and conducting longitudinal tracking. For policy support campaigns, pre/post polling with control groups provides defensible estimates. For consumer behavior, randomized controlled trials with transactional data offer gold-standard evidence. Most organizations should budget 15–20% of program costs for monitoring and evaluation to enable evidence-based iteration.

Sources

Topics

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