Case study: carbon markets & offsets integrity – fastest-moving subsegments to watch

Executive summary

The European carbon credit market is booming. Valued at around USD 201 billion in 2024 and expected to soar to USD 2.79 trillion by 2033, the market is growing at nearly 38 % compound annual growth. This expansion is driven by tighter EU climate legislation, the inclusion of maritime and heavy industry in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), and a surge of corporate net-zero commitments. Buyers are paying a clear premium for high-quality credits, and durable removals are emerging as a separate asset class. Yet supply remains limited and standards are tightening. Founders and investors need to understand which subsegments are scaling quickly and how to assess integrity, pricing and policy alignment.

Why it matters

Carbon markets channel private finance into emissions reductions and removals outside core operations. When credits are credible they support projects that protect forests, restore soils and fund breakthrough carbon removal technologies. For Europe – where the net-zero economy already accounts for around 3 % of UK employment and is growing three times faster than the overall economy – a high-integrity carbon market supports climate goals while unlocking new business opportunities. However, legacy offsets, opaque methodologies and long verification times have eroded trust. Understanding which parts of the market are advancing quickly, and how to evaluate them, helps founders build credible decarbonisation strategies and unlock capital.

Key concepts & market fundamentals

Market growth and regulatory drivers. Europe’s carbon credit market is expanding rapidly thanks to stringent EU climate laws, the expansion of the EU ETS to new sectors and increasing corporate participation. The market was worth USD 201.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 279.09 billion in 2025 and USD 2.79 trillion by 2033. Key trends include the extension of the EU ETS to maritime transport and heavy industries, growing demand for voluntary credits from companies pursuing net-zero goals, and rising interest in nature-based projects and renewable energy initiatives. New trading platforms based on blockchain and investment funds focused on carbon credits are bringing institutional capital into the market. Germany captured 22.7 % of Europe’s carbon credit market in 2024, while the UK is developing its own trading system post‑Brexit and Nordic countries lead in sustainable forest management.

Quality premiums and price fragmentation. The voluntary carbon market is bifurcating between high-quality credits and lower-quality avoidance projects. Sylvera data show that afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) projects rated BBB+ command median spot prices above $35 per tonne, whereas lower‑rated equivalents trade below $20. Market spending on high-quality credits reached $960 million in 2025 even as issuance volumes dipped, and the average spot price for high-quality ARR credits rose to $26 per tonne compared with $14 at the start of the year. There is no single “carbon price”: weighted average spot prices hover around $5.6 per credit, while durable removal offtakes are averaging $180 per credit. Price fragmentation means buyers must plan budgets using scenarios rather than single indices and assess quality, policy eligibility and delivery risk for each project.

Durable removals versus avoidance. Most credits either avoid emissions by preventing deforestation or reducing methane, or remove carbon from the atmosphere through afforestation, soil sequestration or engineered pathways such as biochar, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air capture (DAC). McKinsey analysis indicates a global supply gap of up to 50 million tonnes of durable removals by 2030, with the value of durable removal credits potentially reaching US$ 1.2 trillion by 2050. This scarcity underpins the quality premium and underscores the need for early offtakes and policy support.

Fast‑moving subsegments

1. Expansion of compliance markets and corporate demand

The EU ETS remains the world’s largest compliance market, covering more than 10,000 installations in power generation and energy‑intensive industries. Recent reforms extend the cap‑and‑trade system to maritime transport and heavy industry and accelerate the annual reduction factor under the Fit for 55 package. Corporate demand is rising as thousands of European companies adopt science‑based targets and need credits to offset residual emissions. The surge in demand has led to the creation of blockchain‑based trading platforms and carbon credit investment funds that provide institutional investors with exposure to this asset class. Germany’s leadership is notable: it captured 22.7 % of Europe’s carbon credit market in 2024 thanks to strong industrial decarbonisation initiatives and active participation in both compliance and voluntary schemes. The UK, meanwhile, is building an independent trading system aligned with EU standards and aims to become a global hub for high‑integrity carbon markets.

2. High‑quality nature‑based and soil carbon projects

Demand is shifting toward nature‑based credits with robust baselines, transparent leakage controls and community co‑benefits. Nordic countries lead in sustainable forest management, and buyers increasingly favour afforestation, reforestation and improved forest management projects that meet strict integrity standards. Soil carbon is emerging as a major segment. Agreena’s Carbon Credit Confidence Initiative illustrates the trend: polling shows that 62 % of stakeholders struggle to evaluate carbon credit projects, so the company provides farm walks, five years of baseline data, annual soil sampling and independent verification to build trust. Agreena operates across 4.5 million hectares in 20 European markets and uses digital measurement, reporting and verification (dMRV) powered by AI and satellite imagery to deliver full traceability. Its credits are registered under Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard, giving buyers confidence that regenerative agriculture programmes deliver real climate benefits.

3. Durable carbon removals and BECCS

Europe is laying the foundations for a high‑integrity removal market. The Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), which entered into force in December 2024, establishes a common standard for how removals are quantified, monitored, reported and verified. The European Commission will decide by July 2026 how permanent removals could be integrated into the EU ETS, and it is considering a public purchasing programme to stimulate demand. Pilot projects are already under way. In Sweden, the Beccs Stockholm project aims to capture and store more than 800 000 tonnes of CO₂ per year at an existing biomass plant. In Denmark, a strategic agreement between Elimini and Copenhagen utility HOFOR will develop a large‑scale BECCS facility at the Amagerværket power station, capable of capturing hundreds of thousands of tonnes of CO₂ annually while providing district heating. These projects illustrate how Europe is combining policy support with industrial capabilities to lead in durable removals. However, the global supply of durable credits remains far below forecast demand, driving high prices and underscoring the need for early offtakes and blended finance structures.

4. Data‑driven intelligence and digital MRV

Integrity frameworks and data platforms are reshaping European carbon markets. Buyers pay premiums for credits with strong ratings; Sylvera’s analysis shows that high‑rated ARR projects trade at more than double the price of lower‑rated equivalents. Pricing is fragmented across methodologies, geographies and durability, making granular market intelligence essential. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Green Claims Directive and the Science Based Targets initiative require companies to prove claims with credible, traceable credits; long‑lived removals often command premiums over 300 % compared with avoidance credits. Digital MRV is becoming core infrastructure. Platforms using satellites, drones, sensors and immutable ledgers drastically reduce verification times and costs. They provide near‑real‑time data, automated calculations and transparent audit trails, enabling large‑scale credit issuance. Soil carbon programmes like Agreena’s dMRV system prove that combining remote sensing with field sampling and AI can deliver trustworthy credits at scale.

5. Premium removal credits and supply scarcity

The market is pivoting from cheap avoidance credits to scarce, premium removal credits. Analysts expect removal credits to grow at nearly 56 % CAGR, fuelled by biochar, BECCS, DAC and high‑integrity land restoration. Nature‑based removals such as afforestation and reforestation trade between USD 7 and USD 24 per tonne, while premium verified projects command much higher prices. Technology‑based removals like DAC cost USD 170–500 per tonne, but buyers are willing to pay because supply is tight and permanence is strong. Premium credit supply cannot keep pace with demand; retirements of high‑quality credits are overtaking issuances, leading to intense competition for the best projects. The scarcity of durable removals and the wide price spread between low‑ and high‑quality credits highlight the importance of early engagement and diversified portfolios.

What’s working and what isn’t

Progress. Europe’s regulatory framework is raising standards and attracting investment. The CRCF provides clarity on how to quantify and verify removals, while EU ETS reforms send strong demand signals and incentivise industrial decarbonisation. High‑quality nature‑based projects and soil carbon programmes are scaling, supported by digital MRV and independent ratings. BECCS pilots in Sweden and Denmark demonstrate that engineered removals can integrate with existing infrastructure. Quality premiums are now structural; buyers pay more for credits with robust baselines, permanence mechanisms and community safeguards. Data platforms like Sylvera and Agreena enable buyers to benchmark prices, monitor delivery risk and build portfolio strategies.

Challenges. Oversupply of legacy, low‑integrity credits depresses prices and undermines trust. Supply of durable removals is extremely limited; projects face high capital costs and complex financing. The 50 Mt shortage of durable removals by 2030 means that early adopters will secure supply while others may be priced out. Market fragmentation persists: more than two‑thirds of transactions are private, limiting transparency and liquidity. Verification costs remain high for many projects, although digital systems are closing this gap. Finally, policy alignment across EU member states and between voluntary and compliance markets is still evolving; founders must navigate overlapping rules and ensure credits meet both national and international standards.

A quick framework for founders

Clarify your objective. Decide whether you need compliance allowances, voluntary offsets for residual emissions or early exposure to durable removals. This dictates the types of projects and standards you should target.
Prioritise quality and integrity. Use independent ratings to benchmark projects, and favour credits that adhere to the EU CRCF, ICVCM Core Carbon Principles and VCMI guidelines. Look for robust baselines, additionality, permanence mechanisms and community safeguards.
Leverage digital MRV and data. Work with project developers that employ digital measurement and verification platforms. These tools reduce issuance times and provide transparent, auditable data.
Plan long‑term and diversify. Secure offtake agreements early to lock in supply and hedge against price volatility. Build a diversified portfolio across nature‑based and engineered removals, geographies and methodologies. Scenario‑based budgeting is essential because prices vary widely.
Engage with policy and standards. Monitor EU and national regulations, including the integration of CDR into the EU ETS and the implementation of the Green Claims Directive. Ensure credits can qualify for compliance markets and align with Scope 3 accounting frameworks.
Communicate transparently. Document how offsets fit into your overall decarbonisation plan, including evidence of internal emission reductions. Be prepared to explain why you selected specific credits and how performance will be monitored.

Fast‑moving segments to watch

EU ETS Phase 4 and CBAM. The next phase of the EU ETS will tighten caps and expand coverage, while the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism introduces carbon pricing on imported goods. These policies will increase demand for high‑integrity credits and encourage cross‑border alignment.
Carbon Removal Certification and integration. Implementation of the CRCF and potential EU purchasing programme will create a clearer pathway for durable removals. Watch for decisions in 2026 on integrating CDR into the EU ETS and the emergence of public‑private purchasing coalitions.
Soil carbon and regenerative agriculture. Programmes like Agreena’s demonstrate that soil carbon credits can scale quickly when supported by digital MRV and clear standards. Expect more regenerative agriculture platforms to emerge across Europe.
BECCS and DAC projects. Sweden’s Beccs Stockholm and Denmark’s Amagerværket facility are early examples; more projects are expected as companies seek permanent removals. Biochar credits and enhanced weathering will also grow.
Data platforms and ratings. The market will rely increasingly on real‑time pricing, ratings and policy insights. Platforms like Sylvera provide essential infrastructure for buyers and developers, while initiatives like the Carbon Credit Confidence Initiative build transparency at project level.

Action checklist for founders

Audit your emissions and set clear reduction targets. Offsets complement, not replace, deep decarbonisation.
Map the policy landscape. Understand how EU ETS, CBAM, CRCF and national regulations affect your business.
Identify priority credit types. Determine whether you need avoidance credits, nature‑based removals or engineered removals based on your residual emissions and risk tolerance.
Vet suppliers rigorously. Use independent ratings, request evidence of additionality, permanence and co‑benefits, and check alignment with EU standards.
Negotiate long‑term offtake contracts. Secure supply at today’s prices and support projects through forward financing.
Invest in data and MRV. Build internal capacity or partner with digital MRV providers to track credit performance and provide transparent reporting to stakeholders.
Engage communities and ensure equity. Prioritise projects that share benefits with local communities and respect Indigenous rights.

FAQ

Why is Europe’s carbon credit market growing so quickly?

Stringent EU climate legislation, expansion of the EU ETS and rising corporate net‑zero commitments are driving demand. The market was valued at USD 201.49 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 2.79 trillion by 2033.

What makes a carbon credit “high quality”?

High‑quality credits demonstrate additionality, robust baselines, permanence, minimal leakage and co‑benefits. Independent ratings show that top‑rated afforestation and reforestation projects command prices above $35 per tonne, while lower‑rated equivalents trade below $20.

Why are durable removals so expensive?

Engineered removals like BECCS and DAC involve high capital costs and complex infrastructure. Novel CDR technologies cost more than $100 per tonne, and supply is scarce. However, offtake agreements offer long‑term price certainty and help scale the market.

How can founders manage price volatility?

Build scenario‑based budgets that account for quality premiums, policy shifts and supply constraints. Diversify across project types and geographies, and use market intelligence tools to benchmark prices.

Is digital MRV really necessary?

Yes. Manual verification can delay credit issuance for years, whereas digital MRV platforms use satellite data, sensors and AI to provide near‑real‑time measurements and reduce verification costs. Soil carbon programmes like Agreena’s use dMRV to deliver trustworthy credits at scale.

Sources

Mordor Intelligence. (2025). Europe Carbon Credit Market Size & Share Analysis. Mordor Intelligence.
BloombergNEF. (2025). Germany Carbon Market Share and UK Trading System Development. BloombergNEF.
UK Carbon Markets Forum. (2025). The UK Net-Zero Economy: Employment and Growth Metrics. UK Carbon Markets Forum.
McKinsey & Company. (2024). The Supply Gap in Durable Carbon Removals: Outlook to 2050. McKinsey Sustainability.
Sylvera. (2025). Carbon Credit Quality Premiums: ARR Project Ratings and Pricing Analysis. Sylvera Market Trends.
Sylvera. (2025). Voluntary Carbon Market Spending on High-Quality Credits. Sylvera Market Trends.
AlliedOffsets. (2025). Durable Removal Scarcity and Offtake Commitments Analysis. AlliedOffsets VCM Overview.
AlliedOffsets. (2025). Price Fragmentation in Voluntary Carbon Markets. AlliedOffsets Market Intelligence.
European Commission. (2025). Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism Policy Brief. European Commission.
AlliedOffsets. (2025). Removal Credit Price Ranges: Nature-Based vs DAC. AlliedOffsets CDR Analysis.
European Commission. (2024). Carbon Removal Certification Framework. Official Journal of the European Union.
Stockholm Exergi. (2025). Beccs Stockholm Project. Stockholm Exergi.
Elimini & HOFOR. (2025). Amagerværket BECCS Facility Agreement. HOFOR.
Agreena. (2025). Carbon Credit Confidence Initiative and Digital MRV Programme. Agreena.