Data story: Key signals in climate risk analytics & scenario modeling

Climate risk analytics has evolved from voluntary disclosure enhancement to regulatory compliance requirement. The market reached $4.2 billion in 2024, growing 35% annually as TCFD-aligned reporting becomes mandatory. Five data signals reveal where value pools are forming — and which capabilities are shaping buyer requirements.

Quick Answer

Climate risk analytics is bifurcating into physical risk (asset-level hazard modeling) and transition risk (policy and market scenario analysis). Physical risk providers are consolidating around insurance-grade accuracy requirements, while transition risk platforms are integrating with financial planning systems. The emerging standard requires asset-level physical risk at sub-kilometer resolution, NGFS-aligned transition scenarios, and audit-trail documentation for regulatory compliance.

Signal 1: Physical Risk Modeling Resolution Increasing

The Data:

• Resolution standard: Sub-kilometer (100m-250m) now expected for portfolio analysis
• Hazard coverage: 8+ perils required (flood, wind, wildfire, heat, drought, sea level, precipitation, freeze)
• Time horizons: 2030, 2050, 2100 projections minimum
• Scenario pathways: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 (low, medium, high warming)

What It Means:

Physical risk assessment has moved beyond country or regional averages to asset-specific modeling. Investors and lenders now expect to understand climate exposure at individual property, facility, or infrastructure level.

Resolution Requirements by Use Case:

• Real estate portfolios: 100-250m resolution for building-level analysis
• Infrastructure: 50-100m for precise route/location assessment
• Agricultural land: 1km acceptable for field-level analysis
• Supply chain mapping: Facility geocoding with 250m hazard overlay

Market Leaders by Capability:

• Flood: Jupiter Intelligence, First Street Foundation, Fathom
• Wildfire: Technosylva, Vibrant Planet, Kettle
• Multi-peril: Moody's ESG, MSCI, Rhodium Group

The Next Signal:

Real-time hazard integration with weather forecasting. Leading platforms are connecting long-term climate projections with short-term weather data for operational risk management.

Signal 2: Transition Risk Scenarios Standardizing on NGFS

The Data:

• NGFS adoption: 85% of TCFD reporters use NGFS scenarios
• Scenario count: 6 core NGFS scenarios (up from 3 in 2020)
• Sector coverage: 50+ sectors with specific transition pathways
• Update frequency: Annual scenario updates reflecting policy changes

What It Means:

The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) scenarios have become the de facto standard for transition risk analysis. Regulatory guidance from the Bank of England, ECB, and Federal Reserve references NGFS explicitly.

Core NGFS Scenarios:

• Net Zero 2050: Orderly transition with immediate action
• Below 2°C: Gradual strengthening of policies
• Divergent Net Zero: Disorderly transition with delayed action
• Delayed Transition: Late, abrupt policy response
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): Current policy trajectory
• Current Policies: No additional climate action

Application Requirements:

Financial institutions must model portfolio impacts across multiple scenarios, quantifying:

• Revenue impact from demand shifts
• Cost impact from carbon pricing
• Asset stranding probability
• Transition investment requirements

The Next Signal:

NGFS Phase 4 scenarios (2024) adding nature-related risks and chronic physical impacts. Scenario integration becoming more comprehensive.

Signal 3: Regulatory Mandates Creating Compliance Market

The Data:

• TCFD-aligned reporting: Mandatory in 40+ jurisdictions
• Physical risk disclosure: Required by CSRD, SEC, ISSB
• Scenario analysis: Explicitly required for financial institutions
• Verification requirements: Emerging in UK, EU frameworks

What It Means:

Climate risk analytics has crossed from voluntary disclosure to compliance requirement. The buyer profile is shifting from sustainability teams to risk, finance, and audit functions.

Regulatory Requirements by Region:

• UK: TCFD mandatory for 1,300+ companies; transition plans required
• EU: CSRD requires double materiality; ESRS E1 specifies climate metrics
• US: SEC climate disclosure includes physical and transition risk
• Global: ISSB S2 provides baseline for national adoption

Compliance Feature Requirements:

Analytics platforms must now provide:

• Audit trails for all data and assumptions
• Methodology documentation for external verification
• Scenario reproducibility across reporting periods
• Integration with financial reporting systems

The Next Signal:

Transition plan requirements moving from disclosure to verification. UK TPT framework and EU CSRD require credible transition plans — creating demand for scenario-based target validation.

Signal 4: Value Chain Risk Assessment Emerging

The Data:

• Supply chain coverage: 25% of climate risk assessments now include suppliers
• Materiality threshold: Value chain often represents 80%+ of exposure
• Data availability: Supplier-level physical risk data now accessible
• Regulatory drivers: CSRD Scope 3 and supply chain due diligence requirements

What It Means:

Companies are extending climate risk assessment beyond owned assets to supply chains where concentration risks may exceed direct exposures.

Value Chain Risk Categories:

• Supplier physical risk: Production disruption from climate hazards
• Logistics risk: Transportation route vulnerability
• Raw material risk: Agricultural and extraction site exposures
• Customer risk: Demand shifts from climate impacts or policy

Data Integration Approaches:

• Tier 1 suppliers: Geocoded facility data with direct hazard modeling
• Tier 2+: Industry-average exposure by region and sector
• Critical nodes: Detailed assessment of concentration points

The Next Signal:

Integration of supply chain risk with financial models. Leading companies are quantifying revenue-at-risk from supplier climate exposure, informing procurement and inventory strategy.

Signal 5: Analytics-Insurance Convergence

The Data:

• Parametric insurance growth: 40% CAGR for climate-triggered products
• Model sharing: Insurers providing analytics to policyholders
• Risk engineering: Pre-loss services bundled with coverage
• Data requirements: Underwriting increasingly requires climate analytics

What It Means:

Insurance and climate analytics markets are converging. Insurers use the same hazard models for underwriting that companies use for disclosure — creating opportunities for shared infrastructure and aligned risk management.

Convergence Points:

• Underwriting data: Climate risk scores influencing premium pricing
• Loss prevention: Insurer-funded resilience investments
• Parametric triggers: Objective weather/climate indices for payouts
• Portfolio optimization: Climate analytics informing coverage decisions

Market Implications:

• Analytics vendors partnering with/acquiring insurance capabilities
• Insurers licensing analytics platforms for client services
• Reinsurers building proprietary climate modeling teams
• Integrated risk management platforms emerging

The Next Signal:

Climate risk ratings analogous to credit ratings. Third-party assessment of corporate climate resilience influencing insurance pricing, lending terms, and investment decisions.

Buyer Requirements: The Emerging Standard

Based on regulatory mandates and market practice, climate risk analytics buyers now expect:

Physical Risk:

• Asset-level hazard modeling at sub-kilometer resolution
• 8+ perils with forward-looking projections (2030-2100)
• SSP-aligned scenarios with uncertainty quantification
• API integration with asset management systems

Transition Risk:

• NGFS-aligned scenario analysis with sector-specific pathways
• Carbon price sensitivity across multiple pricing trajectories
• Revenue and margin impact quantification
• Integration with financial planning and strategy tools

Compliance Features:

• Audit trail and methodology documentation
• Year-over-year comparability
• External verification support
• Multi-framework output (TCFD, CSRD, SEC, ISSB)

Action Checklist

• Assess current climate risk capabilities against regulatory requirements
• Inventory assets with geocoded locations for physical risk analysis
• Select NGFS scenarios appropriate for business model and geography
• Extend risk assessment to critical supply chain nodes
• Ensure analytics platform provides audit-trail documentation
• Integrate climate risk outputs with financial planning processes
• Engage insurance partners on aligned risk assessment approaches
• Build internal capability to interpret and act on risk insights

FAQ

What resolution is required for physical risk modeling? Regulatory guidance doesn't specify resolution, but market practice has converged on sub-kilometer (100-250m) for asset-level analysis. Coarser resolution may be acceptable for portfolio-level screening.

How many scenarios should we model? TCFD recommends at least two scenarios including a 1.5°C or 2°C pathway. Best practice includes 3-4 scenarios spanning orderly transition, disorderly transition, and higher warming outcomes.

How do we handle uncertainty in climate projections? Present scenario results as ranges rather than point estimates. Use multiple climate models and scenarios to bound uncertainty. Focus on relative risk rankings rather than absolute predictions.

Should we build internal capabilities or buy analytics? Most companies license external analytics platforms and build internal interpretation capability. Only the largest financial institutions develop proprietary climate models.

Sources

1. Network for Greening the Financial System. "NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors." NGFS, 2024.
2. Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. "2024 Status Report." TCFD, 2024.
3. Climate Financial Risk Forum. "Climate Data and Metrics Guide." Bank of England, 2024.
4. BloombergNEF. "Climate Risk Analytics Market Outlook." BNEF, 2024.
5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "AR6 Synthesis Report." IPCC, 2023.
6. UK Transition Plan Taskforce. "Disclosure Framework." TPT, 2024.