Data Story — Key Signals in Nature-Based Solutions

Nature-based solutions (NbS) have emerged from niche conservation projects to mainstream corporate strategy, with global investment reaching $200 billion annually in 2025. As companies face mounting pressure to address both climate and biodiversity targets, understanding which approaches deliver credible, measurable outcomes—and which fail scrutiny—has become essential. This analysis examines implementation lessons from leading companies navigating the complex landscape of permanence, additionality, and co-benefit verification.

Why It Matters

The IPCC estimates that nature-based solutions can provide 30-37% of the mitigation needed through 2030 to keep warming below 1.5°C. Beyond carbon, healthy ecosystems provide flood protection worth $33 billion annually globally, pollination services valued at $235-577 billion, and water filtration that would cost $2.1 trillion to replicate with engineered infrastructure.

Corporate commitments are accelerating. The Science Based Targets Network (SBTN) now requires companies to set nature targets alongside climate goals, with 300+ companies committed by early 2026. The EU Deforestation Regulation mandates supply chain due diligence, making nature-positive sourcing a compliance requirement rather than voluntary aspiration. Financial institutions managing $15 trillion in assets have signed the Finance for Biodiversity Pledge, creating capital allocation pressure for NbS investments.

Key Concepts

NbS Categories

• Protection: Safeguarding existing ecosystems (avoided deforestation, wetland conservation)
• Restoration: Returning degraded ecosystems to healthy function (reforestation, mangrove restoration)
• Sustainable management: Maintaining ecosystem function while enabling human use (agroforestry, sustainable forestry)
• Creation: Establishing new ecosystems where none existed (green roofs, constructed wetlands)

The Quality Hierarchy

Not all NbS deliver equivalent climate and biodiversity benefits. IUCN's Global Standard for NbS establishes eight criteria including additionality (would the outcome occur without intervention?), permanence (will carbon remain stored for 100+ years?), and leakage (does protection in one area simply shift degradation elsewhere?). Projects meeting all criteria command 3-5x price premiums in voluntary carbon markets.

From Carbon-Only to Stacked Benefits

The market is shifting from carbon-only credits toward stacked benefit models valuing biodiversity, water, and community outcomes alongside carbon. Verra's Climate, Community & Biodiversity (CCB) certification, applied to 40% of forestry credits, provides verification frameworks. Emerging biodiversity credit markets, though nascent, signal future monetization pathways for non-carbon benefits.

What's Working and What Isn't

What's Working

Integrated landscape approaches: Microsoft's Acorn carbon removal partnership in Kenya demonstrates landscape-scale integration where agroforestry, improved cookstoves, and avoided deforestation combine across 100,000 hectares. By addressing multiple emission sources and community needs simultaneously, the project achieves higher permanence and additionality than isolated tree planting.

Technology-enabled monitoring: Planet Labs satellite imagery combined with AI analysis enables near-real-time deforestation detection across corporate supply chains. Unilever monitors 1.3 million hectares of sourcing landscapes, identifying encroachment within days rather than months, enabling rapid response that prevents rather than merely records degradation.

Local stewardship models: Community-managed forests in Nepal achieve 25% better conservation outcomes than government-managed equivalents, according to World Bank research. Programs recognizing indigenous land rights while providing sustainable livelihood alternatives, such as Brazil's Bolsa Floresta, reduce deforestation rates by 40-70% compared to unprotected areas.

Urban green infrastructure: Singapore's ABC Waters program integrates bioswales, rain gardens, and naturalized channels across 120+ sites. These nature-based stormwater solutions cost 30-50% less than conventional drainage infrastructure while providing cooling, air quality, and amenity benefits. The city's target of 80% of residents within 400m of a park by 2030 is 75% achieved.

What Isn't Working

Monoculture tree plantations: Commercial tree plantations marketed as "reforestation" often displace native ecosystems, reduce biodiversity, and store less carbon than natural regeneration. A 2024 Stanford study found that monoculture eucalyptus plantations in Brazil supported 90% fewer bird species than native forest while providing equivalent carbon storage.

Carbon credits with reversal risk: Wildfires, drought, and pest outbreaks are destroying forest carbon projects at accelerating rates. The Bootleg Fire in Oregon released 1.7 million tonnes of carbon from offset projects in 2021. Without robust buffer pools and insurance mechanisms, permanence claims lack credibility.

Afforestation in wrong ecosystems: Tree planting in native grasslands and savannas can harm biodiversity and actually increase fire risk. The UN FAO's revised forest definition recognizes that not all ecosystems should be converted to forest—a lesson many corporate tree-planting commitments have yet to learn.

Greenwashing through offsets: Companies using NbS credits to claim carbon neutrality while emissions increase face growing scrutiny. The Science Based Targets initiative explicitly prohibits offsets for Scope 1 and 2 neutrality claims. Guardian investigations have revealed that 90% of rainforest offset credits from major certifiers may be "phantom credits" representing non-additional protection.

Examples

1. Nestlé Nescafé Plan, Global: Nestlé's coffee supply chain transformation combines farmer training, agroforestry implementation, and deforestation monitoring across 700,000 farming households. The program has distributed 235 million disease-resistant coffee plantlets, established 1.5 million shade trees providing habitat connectivity, and reduced water usage by 45% in processing. Third-party verification through Rainforest Alliance covers 80% of sourcing. The 15-year program investment exceeds $800 million with documented yield improvements of 20-40% for participating farmers.

2. AXA Mangrove Initiative, Philippines and Mexico: Insurance giant AXA invested $15 million in mangrove restoration recognizing that healthy mangroves reduce coastal flood claims. The Philippines project restored 500 hectares protecting 200,000 coastal residents while sequestering 3,500 tonnes CO2 annually. Beyond risk reduction, the restored mangroves support fisheries generating $2 million annually in community income. AXA's actuarial analysis shows mangrove restoration delivers 4:1 benefit-cost ratio versus seawall construction.

3. Kering Regenerative Agriculture, Madagascar: Luxury group Kering's cashmere and wool sourcing integrates regenerative grazing practices across 1 million hectares of rangeland. Holistic planned grazing restores degraded grasslands while maintaining pastoral livelihoods. Soil carbon measurements show 2-4 tonnes CO2e/hectare annual sequestration while improving fiber quality. The program supports 15,000 herder families with fair trade premiums and technical assistance.

Action Checklist

• Assess value chain nature dependencies—map where your operations and supply chains depend on ecosystem services (water, pollination, soil health) to identify priority intervention areas
• Apply SBTN framework—use Science Based Targets for Nature methodology to establish measurable targets for land, freshwater, and biodiversity
• Prioritize insetting over offsetting—invest in NbS within your own supply chains where you can ensure permanence and capture co-benefits rather than purchasing credits from disconnected projects
• Require robust certification—specify IUCN Global Standard, CCB, or equivalent verification for any NbS investment, rejecting projects lacking additionality demonstration
• Integrate technology monitoring—deploy satellite monitoring and AI analysis to track restoration progress and detect reversal risks in real time
• Support indigenous stewardship—partner with indigenous and local communities who have proven track records of ecosystem management success

FAQ

Q: How should we account for NbS in our carbon footprint reporting? A: GHGP and SBTi guidance separates NbS from emission reductions. Report actual Scope 1, 2, and 3 reductions separately from carbon removals. NbS credits cannot substitute for absolute emission reductions but can contribute to neutralization of residual emissions after ambitious reduction efforts.

Q: What's the difference between restoration and regeneration? A: Restoration aims to return an ecosystem to a historical reference state. Regeneration focuses on enhancing ecosystem function and resilience regardless of historical condition. In practice, regenerative approaches often prove more achievable and beneficial than attempts to recreate historical ecosystems that may no longer be viable under changed climate conditions.

Q: How do we verify biodiversity claims? A: Credible biodiversity verification requires species surveys using standardized protocols (e.g., point counts for birds, camera traps for mammals), conducted by qualified ecologists with baseline and ongoing monitoring. DNA metabarcoding is emerging as a cost-effective monitoring tool. Avoid projects claiming biodiversity benefits without documented species data.

Q: What permanence guarantees should we require? A: Credible forest carbon projects maintain 20-30% buffer pools to insure against reversal. Look for insurance mechanisms, liability reserves, and legal protections ensuring 100+ year permanence. Avoid projects in high wildfire or political instability regions without robust risk management.

Sources

• IPCC, "Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report—Nature-Based Solutions Chapter," IPCC AR6, 2023
• Science Based Targets Network, "Technical Guidance for Nature Targets," SBTN, 2025
• World Bank, "Community Forest Management Outcomes: Global Evidence Review," World Bank Policy Research, 2024
• IUCN, "Global Standard for Nature-based Solutions—Implementation Guide," IUCN, 2025
• Stanford University, "Biodiversity Outcomes in Plantation vs. Natural Forests," Nature Sustainability, 2024
• Rainforest Alliance, "Sustainable Agriculture Standard Certification Impacts Report," RA, 2025