Data story: Key signals in Water security & desalination

Global desalination capacity surpassed 130 million cubic meters per day in 2025, yet over 2 billion people still lack access to safely managed drinking water. Six data signals reveal how investment is flowing, where technology is advancing fastest, and which markets are poised for transformation in the next decade.

Quick Answer

Water security investment hit $92 billion globally in 2025, with desalination accounting for $18.4 billion of that total. Costs for seawater reverse osmosis have fallen below $0.50 per cubic meter in the most efficient new plants, a 65% decline since 2005. Solar-powered desalination is emerging as a viable pathway for water-stressed regions with high solar irradiance. The Middle East and North Africa still dominate installed capacity, but the fastest growth is now occurring in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. Meanwhile, brine management and energy intensity remain the two largest barriers to sustainable scaling.

Signal 1: Desalination Capacity Is Accelerating Beyond Traditional Markets

The Data:

• Global installed capacity: 130 million m3/day across 22,000+ plants in 177 countries (2025)
• New capacity commissioned in 2024: 8.2 million m3/day, a 12% increase over 2023
• MENA share of global capacity: 47%, down from 62% in 2015
• Fastest-growing regions: Sub-Saharan Africa (35% CAGR), South Asia (28% CAGR), Latin America (22% CAGR)
• China: Now second-largest market, adding 1.8 million m3/day in 2024 alone

What It Means:

Desalination is no longer exclusively a Gulf state technology. Water stress driven by population growth, urbanization, and climate variability is pushing adoption into regions that historically relied on surface water and groundwater. India's Jal Jeevan Mission has allocated $3.2 billion for desalination infrastructure along its coastline, targeting 5 million m3/day of new capacity by 2030. South Africa's Western Cape, following the 2018 Day Zero crisis in Cape Town, now operates four desalination facilities and has contracted three more.

The Next Signal:

Inland brackish water desalination is growing faster than seawater systems. The United States added 420 brackish water plants between 2020 and 2025, particularly across Texas, Arizona, and California's Central Valley, where agricultural demand and aquifer depletion are converging.

Signal 2: Energy Intensity Is Falling, But Unevenly

The Data:

• Best-in-class SWRO energy consumption: 2.5-3.0 kWh/m3 (2025), down from 4.5-5.0 kWh/m3 in 2010
• Thermodynamic minimum: 1.06 kWh/m3 for seawater at 35,000 ppm salinity
• Average operating plant energy consumption: 3.5-4.2 kWh/m3
• Energy as share of total production cost: 35-50% for SWRO; 20-30% for BWRO
• Energy recovery device efficiency: 97-98% in modern pressure exchangers

What It Means:

The gap between the thermodynamic minimum and actual performance has narrowed substantially. Energy recovery devices now capture and reuse 95-98% of the hydraulic energy in the brine stream, a breakthrough that has halved the energy cost of desalination since 2000. Next-generation membrane materials, including graphene oxide and aquaporin-embedded membranes, promise further reductions of 15-25% in laboratory settings, though commercial deployment remains 3-5 years away.

However, the global fleet average lags well behind best-in-class performance. Over 40% of operating plants were commissioned before 2010 and operate at energy intensities 30-50% above current benchmarks. Retrofitting these facilities with modern energy recovery devices and high-rejection membranes represents a $12 billion market opportunity.

The Next Signal:

Coupling desalination with renewable energy is erasing the carbon footprint argument. Saudi Arabia's NEOM project includes a 500,000 m3/day solar-powered desalination plant designed to operate at 2.8 kWh/m3, with zero direct carbon emissions.

Signal 3: Cost Curves Are Converging With Conventional Water Supply

The Data:

• Lowest contracted SWRO cost: $0.31/m3 (Taweelah, UAE, 909,000 m3/day plant)
• Global average SWRO levelized cost: $0.48-0.65/m3
• Brackish water RO cost: $0.20-0.35/m3
• Conventional surface water treatment: $0.15-0.40/m3
• Long-distance water transfer cost: $0.50-2.50/m3 (depending on distance and elevation)

What It Means:

Desalination has reached cost parity with long-distance water transfer in many regions and is approaching parity with conventional treatment in water-stressed areas where source quality is declining. The Taweelah plant in Abu Dhabi set a global benchmark at $0.31 per cubic meter, driven by economies of scale (900,000+ m3/day capacity), competitive procurement, and low-cost solar energy integration.

For inland communities facing declining aquifer levels or contamination, brackish water desalination at $0.20-0.35/m3 is already cheaper than developing new surface water sources or importing water from distant basins. El Paso, Texas, operates the world's largest inland desalination plant, producing 104,000 m3/day of drinking water from brackish aquifers at $0.26/m3, competitive with the city's surface water costs.

The Next Signal:

Municipal water utilities in the western United States and Mediterranean Europe are increasingly including desalination in long-term supply portfolios, not as emergency backup but as a baseload source. San Diego's Carlsbad plant provides 10% of the county's water supply at a contracted rate that has become competitive as alternative sources have become scarcer and more expensive.

Signal 4: Brine Management Is Becoming the Binding Constraint

The Data:

• Global brine production: 142 million m3/day (1.5x the volume of desalinated water produced)
• Brine disposed to ocean: 78% of total
• Zero Liquid Discharge (ZLD) adoption rate: 4% of new plants (up from <1% in 2020)
• Brine mineral recovery market: $1.2 billion in 2025, projected to reach $4.8 billion by 2030
• Cost premium for ZLD: 30-60% above conventional SWRO

What It Means:

Every cubic meter of desalinated seawater generates approximately 1.5 cubic meters of concentrated brine. For coastal plants, ocean discharge remains the dominant disposal method, but environmental regulations are tightening. The Mediterranean Action Plan now requires environmental impact assessments for all new desalination brine outfalls, and California's State Water Resources Control Board mandates dilution ratios that effectively limit plant sizing.

Inland plants face even greater constraints. Brine disposal options include deep-well injection, evaporation ponds, and ZLD systems, all of which add $0.15-0.40/m3 to production costs. The emerging alternative is mineral recovery: extracting lithium, magnesium, sodium chloride, and other valuable minerals from brine streams. A pilot plant in Saudi Arabia operated by the Saline Water Conversion Corporation is recovering lithium at concentrations sufficient for battery-grade production, potentially generating $8-12 per cubic meter of brine processed.

The Next Signal:

Regulatory pressure on brine discharge is accelerating ZLD adoption in environmentally sensitive regions. The EU Water Framework Directive and Australia's Environmental Protection Authority are both drafting stricter standards for desalination brine.

Signal 5: Climate Adaptation Is Driving Institutional Investment

The Data:

• Total water security infrastructure investment: $92 billion globally (2025)
• Multilateral development bank water lending: $14.8 billion (World Bank, ADB, AfDB combined)
• Private desalination project finance: $6.2 billion in 2024
• Climate adaptation share of water investment: 38%, up from 22% in 2020
• Green and sustainability-linked water bonds issued: $8.5 billion (2024)

What It Means:

Water security has shifted from a development issue to a climate adaptation priority. The World Bank's 2025 Water Global Practice report estimates that climate change will reduce water availability by 40% in already water-stressed regions by 2050, affecting 3.2 billion people. This framing has unlocked new categories of climate finance.

Green bonds for water infrastructure have tripled since 2022. The European Investment Bank issued a $2.1 billion water resilience bond in 2024, with proceeds directed toward desalination, wastewater reuse, and smart water networks across Southern Europe and North Africa. Singapore's PUB (Public Utilities Board) raised $800 million through sustainability bonds to fund its fifth desalination plant and expansion of NEWater reclaimed water capacity.

Private capital is flowing through public-private partnerships. The Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) model now accounts for 65% of new large-scale desalination capacity, with project finance terms extending to 25-30 years and leveraged returns of 8-12% for equity investors.

The Next Signal:

Insurance-linked water security instruments are emerging. Parametric insurance products triggered by drought indices or reservoir levels are being piloted in California, Australia, and Spain, creating a new asset class at the intersection of water infrastructure and climate risk transfer.

Signal 6: Digital Water Is Transforming Operations and Planning

The Data:

• Smart water network adoption: 32% of urban utilities globally (up from 18% in 2020)
• Non-revenue water reduction from digital monitoring: 15-25% average improvement
• AI-optimized desalination plant efficiency gains: 8-12% energy reduction
• Digital twin deployments in water utilities: 850+ globally (2025)
• Water data platform market: $3.4 billion (2025)

What It Means:

Digital technologies are addressing two critical challenges simultaneously: reducing losses in existing water systems and optimizing new desalination infrastructure. Globally, non-revenue water (water that is produced but never reaches customers due to leaks, theft, or metering inaccuracies) averages 30-35% of total production. In many developing countries, losses exceed 50%. Smart sensors, acoustic leak detection, and AI-driven pressure management are delivering 15-25% reductions in non-revenue water, effectively creating new supply without building new infrastructure.

For desalination plants, digital twins and machine learning are optimizing membrane performance, chemical dosing, and energy consumption in real time. IDE Technologies' deployment of AI across its Israeli desalination portfolio reduced specific energy consumption by 10% and extended membrane life by 18 months, translating to $0.03-0.05/m3 in cost savings.

Singapore's national water agency, PUB, operates the most advanced digital water system globally, using AI to manage the entire water cycle from catchment to tap, including real-time optimization of its desalination and NEWater facilities.

The Next Signal:

Satellite-based groundwater monitoring is enabling predictive water stress modeling. NASA's GRACE-FO mission data, combined with machine learning, now provides 6-month forecasts of aquifer depletion rates across 40 major basins, giving utilities lead time to activate desalination capacity.

Benchmark KPIs: Water Security and Desalination

Metric	Below Average	Average	Above Average	Top Quartile
SWRO Energy Intensity (kWh/m3)	>4.5	3.5-4.5	2.8-3.5	<2.8
Levelized Cost of Water ($/m3)	>0.80	0.50-0.80	0.35-0.50	<0.35
Plant Availability (%)	<90%	90-95%	95-98%	>98%
Non-Revenue Water (%)	>35%	25-35%	15-25%	<15%
Membrane Replacement Frequency	<4 years	4-5 years	5-7 years	>7 years
Recovery Rate (SWRO)	<40%	40-45%	45-50%	>50%
Brine Mineral Recovery Revenue	None	<$1/m3	$1-5/m3	>$5/m3

Action Checklist

• Assess current water supply portfolio vulnerability to climate scenarios (2C and 4C warming pathways)
• Benchmark existing desalination assets against current energy intensity and cost benchmarks
• Evaluate brackish water desalination potential for inland communities facing aquifer depletion
• Review brine management strategy against tightening regulatory requirements in your jurisdiction
• Explore green bond and sustainability-linked financing for water infrastructure projects
• Pilot digital water technologies (smart sensors, AI optimization) on existing assets before scaling
• Engage with multilateral development banks on concessional financing for water security projects
• Develop integrated water resource plans that include desalination as a baseload supply option

Sources

• International Desalination Association. (2025). Global Desalination Yearbook 2025. Topsfield, MA: IDA.
• World Bank Water Global Practice. (2025). Water Security in a Changing Climate: Investment Pathways and Financing Gaps. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
• Global Water Intelligence. (2025). Desalination Markets 2025: Costs, Technologies, and Growth Projections. Oxford: GWI.
• International Energy Agency. (2025). Water-Energy Nexus: World Energy Outlook Special Report. Paris: IEA Publications.
• UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme. (2025). United Nations World Water Development Report: Water and Climate Change Adaptation. Paris: UNESCO.
• BloombergNEF. (2025). Water Infrastructure Investment Tracker, Q4 2024. New York: Bloomberg LP.
• Elimelech, M. and Phillip, W.A. (2024). "The Future of Seawater Desalination: Energy, Technology, and the Environment." Science, 378(6616), pp. 712-720.
• PUB Singapore. (2025). Digital Water: Singapore's Integrated Water Management System. Singapore: PUB.