Deep Dive: Renewables Innovation (Solar, Wind, Geothermal) — The Fastest-Moving Subsegments to Watch

While conventional solar and wind continue their march toward global energy dominance, several subsegments within renewable energy are experiencing acceleration that could fundamentally reshape markets over the coming decade. Perovskite solar cells are finally approaching commercial reality after years of laboratory promise. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are proving viability in ways that could unlock baseload clean energy across vast new geographies. Offshore wind is pushing into deeper waters with floating platforms that access superior wind resources. This analysis identifies the fastest-moving subsegments, explains what's driving their momentum, and assesses implications for buyers and investors.

Why This Matters

The clean energy transition requires not just deployment of existing technologies but continued innovation to address remaining challenges. Conventional solar and wind are variable—producing power only when the sun shines or wind blows. Batteries address short-duration variability but become expensive for long-duration storage. Hard-to-electrify sectors require energy carriers beyond electricity.

The subsegments accelerating fastest are those solving specific constraints in the current energy system:

• Perovskite solar could dramatically reduce solar costs and expand applications
• Enhanced geothermal provides the 24/7 baseload power that solar and wind cannot
• Floating offshore wind accesses superior wind resources in deeper waters
• Agrivoltaics addresses land-use conflicts limiting solar deployment

For procurement professionals and investors, monitoring these subsegments informs strategic positioning. Technologies reaching commercial viability create procurement opportunities; those still maturing may warrant patience.

The Fastest-Moving Subsegments

Perovskite Solar Cells: Lab to Fab Transition

Perovskite solar cells—using materials with a specific crystal structure that efficiently converts light to electricity—have been the "next big thing" in solar for over a decade. After years of laboratory development, the technology is finally approaching commercial deployment.

Why it matters: Perovskite cells can be manufactured at room temperature using printing processes—potentially far cheaper than the high-temperature processes required for silicon. They can be deposited on flexible substrates, enabling applications silicon cannot address. And perovskite can be layered on top of silicon cells to create tandem devices that capture more of the solar spectrum, boosting efficiency.

Velocity indicators:

• Oxford PV has begun commercial production of perovskite-silicon tandem cells at its German factory, with efficiencies exceeding 28% (versus ~22% for standard silicon)
• First Solar acquired perovskite startup Swift Solar in 2024
• LONGi, the world's largest solar manufacturer, has announced perovskite development programs
• Laboratory efficiency records continue advancing, with tandem cells exceeding 33% efficiency

Key challenges being addressed:

• Stability: Early perovskite cells degraded quickly; recent formulations and encapsulation have achieved 25+ year projected lifetimes in accelerated testing
• Scalability: Moving from small laboratory cells to large-format manufacturing is progressing; Oxford PV's production demonstrates viability
• Lead content: Most high-efficiency perovskites contain lead; lead-free alternatives are under development though with lower current performance

Timeline assessment: First commercial products (tandem cells) are entering market in 2024-2025. Widespread deployment likely by late 2020s. By 2030, perovskite could represent a significant share of new solar installations.

Enhanced Geothermal Systems: Unlocking Baseload Clean Energy

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) create artificial geothermal reservoirs in hot rock that lacks natural permeability. The technology could dramatically expand geothermal energy from its current niche (~15 GW globally) to terawatt-scale potential.

Why it matters: Geothermal provides 24/7 baseload power—the holy grail for clean energy procurement. Unlike solar and wind, geothermal generates electricity around the clock regardless of weather. Tech companies seeking to match electricity consumption with clean generation on an hourly basis see EGS as potentially transformative.

Velocity indicators:

• Fervo Energy brought its first commercial EGS project online in Nevada in 2023, with additional projects under development
• Eavor has demonstrated its "closed-loop" geothermal technology in Alberta and Germany
• Google announced a partnership with Fervo to procure EGS power for data centers
• DOE's Enhanced Geothermal Shot has set targets of $45/MWh by 2035 with dedicated funding
• Investment in EGS startups has increased dramatically, with hundreds of millions raised

Key challenges being addressed:

• Drilling costs: Oil and gas drilling techniques are being adapted to reduce geothermal well costs; improvements of 30-50% achieved in recent projects
• Reservoir creation: Techniques for creating permeable reservoirs without inducing seismicity have advanced significantly
• Resource assessment: Better characterization techniques reduce drilling risk

Timeline assessment: EGS is at early commercial stage—proven technically, with first projects delivering power, but costs still above grid alternatives. Expect significant scale-up through the late 2020s with cost reductions approaching competitiveness by early 2030s.

Floating Offshore Wind: Accessing Deep-Water Resources

Fixed-bottom offshore wind is now a mature technology with tens of gigawatts deployed globally. Floating offshore wind—turbines mounted on platforms anchored in deep water—extends offshore wind to locations where fixed foundations are impractical.

Why it matters: The best offshore wind resources are often in deep waters (over 60 meters) where fixed foundations become prohibitively expensive. The West Coast of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and much of the Mediterranean have excellent wind but deep waters near shore. Floating platforms unlock these resources.

Velocity indicators:

• Hywind Scotland (Equinor) has operated since 2017, demonstrating technical viability
• California approved commercial floating wind leases in 2022, with 4.6 GW under development
• Japan is developing floating wind capacity, with multiple projects in planning
• France and Portugal have operational floating projects with more under development
• Manufacturing capacity for floating platforms is scaling, with multiple yards entering the market

Key challenges being addressed:

• Cost: Current floating wind costs are $100-150/MWh—above fixed-bottom. Cost reduction pathways target $50-80/MWh by 2030
• Manufacturing: Platform manufacturing is a bottleneck; investment in fabrication capacity is accelerating
• Transmission: Deep-water projects require long transmission connections to shore

Timeline assessment: Floating offshore wind is at early commercial deployment. Expect significant scale-up through the late 2020s, with costs approaching fixed-bottom parity by early 2030s.

Agrivoltaics: Accelerating from Research to Commercial Deployment

Agrivoltaics—combining solar energy production with agriculture on the same land—has moved rapidly from research installations to commercial deployment, driven by land-use pressures and dual-use value propositions.

Velocity indicators:

• France has implemented specific agrivoltaic regulations and incentives, with hundreds of MW deployed or under development
• Germany included agrivoltaics in its renewable energy support scheme with bonus payments
• United States is seeing rapid growth, with NREL research and commercial developers (Jack's Solar Garden, Lightsource BP pilots) demonstrating viability
• Japan has over 3,000 agrivoltaic installations reflecting its severe land constraints

What's driving acceleration:

• Land-use conflicts: Opposition to conventional solar on agricultural land has driven interest in dual-use
• Agricultural benefits: Research documenting water savings and crop protection in hot climates
• Revenue stacking: Combined energy and agriculture income exceeds either alone for suitable combinations
• Policy support: Multiple jurisdictions now provide specific incentives for agrivoltaics

Timeline assessment: Agrivoltaics is transitioning from early commercial to mainstream. Expect significant growth through the 2020s, with agrivoltaics potentially representing 5-10% of new solar installations in leading markets by 2030.

Next-Generation Wind Technologies

Beyond floating platforms, several wind technology innovations are advancing rapidly:

Larger turbines: Turbine size continues increasing, with offshore units exceeding 15 MW and onshore units reaching 8 MW. Larger turbines reduce installed cost per MW and improve capacity factors.

Airborne wind: Companies like Makani (discontinued by Google), Kite Power Systems, and others have developed kite-based wind generation. While commercial viability remains uncertain, the technology could access stronger, more consistent winds at altitude.

Digital optimization: AI-driven turbine control and wind farm optimization are improving energy capture by 2-5% at minimal cost.

What's Enabling the Acceleration

Common factors drive acceleration across these subsegments:

Technology spillovers: Advances in related fields enable progress. Oil and gas drilling techniques accelerate geothermal. Semiconductor manufacturing advances benefit perovskites. Marine engineering for oil platforms informs floating wind.

Policy support: Government programs—DOE's Enhanced Geothermal Shot, EU innovation funding, IRA manufacturing credits—provide capital and reduce risk for early deployment.

Corporate procurement: Large buyers seeking 24/7 clean energy or differentiated renewable supply create demand for emerging technologies. Google's EGS partnership, Apple's agrivoltaic pilots, and corporate floating wind PPAs all accelerate deployment.

Climate urgency: Recognition that solving climate requires all available tools creates openness to emerging technologies that might have faced longer development cycles in less urgent contexts.

What Remains Slow

Despite acceleration in some areas, barriers persist in others:

Permitting: Even innovative technologies face slow permitting. Floating offshore wind projects wait years for environmental reviews. Geothermal projects face drilling permit delays. Innovation in permitting processes has not matched technology innovation.

Grid connection: The interconnection queue crisis affects all generation technologies. Innovative projects face the same multi-year waits as conventional ones.

Supply chain development: Scaling manufacturing for new technologies takes time. Perovskite cell production, floating platform fabrication, and EGS drilling capacity are all ramping but constrain deployment.

Implications for Buyers and Investors

For Corporate Procurement

• Near-term (2024-2027): Continue contracting conventional solar and wind; consider agrivoltaics where land-use concerns affect development. EGS and floating wind remain niche opportunities for early adopters.
• Medium-term (2027-2030): EGS may become viable for 24/7 clean energy procurement; floating wind costs should approach competitiveness; perovskite/silicon tandem may offer efficiency advantages.

For Investors

• Highest momentum: EGS is attracting significant capital as technical viability demonstrated; floating wind manufacturing is a supply chain opportunity; agrivoltaic developers and equipment providers are scaling.
• Emerging opportunities: Perovskite manufacturing; geothermal services and drilling; specialized offshore wind vessels and installation equipment.
• Watch list: Next-generation battery chemistries; advanced nuclear; carbon capture integration with renewables.

Action Checklist

• Monitor enhanced geothermal development for 24/7 clean energy procurement opportunities (timeline: 2027-2030)
• Evaluate floating offshore wind for procurement in deep-water regions (Pacific Coast, Japan, Korea)
• Consider agrivoltaics for projects facing land-use constraints or seeking dual-use value
• Track perovskite commercialization for future efficiency improvements
• Engage with developers of emerging technologies to understand development timelines and partnership opportunities
• Factor technology evolution into long-term procurement strategies (10+ year PPAs should consider technology change)

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Should we wait for emerging technologies or proceed with conventional renewables?

A: Don't wait. Conventional solar and wind are cost-effective today and should form the core of clean energy procurement. Emerging technologies are additive—addressing specific use cases (24/7 power, deep-water wind, land-constrained solar) that conventional renewables don't serve well. Proceed with conventional procurement while monitoring emerging alternatives for future opportunities.

Q: How do we assess whether an emerging technology is ready for commercial procurement?

A: Key indicators include: (1) Operational reference installations at meaningful scale, (2) Third-party verified performance data, (3) Multiple suppliers competing in the market, (4) Project financing available from mainstream sources. Technologies meeting all four criteria are commercially ready; those lacking them remain in demonstration stage.

Q: What's the timeline for enhanced geothermal to become a mainstream procurement option?

A: Current EGS projects are at costs of approximately $70-100/MWh—above alternatives but declining. The DOE target of $45/MWh by 2035 would make EGS fully competitive. For early adopters willing to pay premiums for 24/7 clean energy, procurement opportunities exist today. For cost-sensitive buyers, 2028-2032 is a reasonable planning window for EGS competitiveness.

Q: Will perovskite solar replace silicon?

A: Likely evolution rather than revolution. Perovskite-silicon tandem cells that boost efficiency by layering perovskite on silicon are the near-term commercial application. All-perovskite cells may eventually address specific applications (flexible, lightweight, building-integrated) but silicon will remain dominant for utility-scale. The transition will be gradual, with multiple technologies coexisting.

Sources

• National Renewable Energy Laboratory. (2024). Best Research-Cell Efficiency Chart. Available at: https://www.nrel.gov/
• Oxford PV. (2024). Commercial Production Update. Available at: https://www.oxfordpv.com/
• Fervo Energy. (2024). Project Progress and Technical Papers. Available at: https://fervoenergy.com/
• Department of Energy. (2024). Enhanced Geothermal Shot. Available at: https://www.energy.gov/
• Equinor. (2024). Hywind Scotland Operational Report. Available at: https://www.equinor.com/
• BloombergNEF. (2024). New Energy Outlook. Available at: https://about.bnef.com/
• Fraunhofer ISE. (2024). Agrivoltaics: State of the Technology. Available at: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/
• Wind Europe. (2024). Floating Offshore Wind: Roadmap to Commercialization. Available at: https://windeurope.org/