Deep Dive: Transit & Micromobility — What's Working, What Isn't, and What's Next

The UK's approach to transit and micromobility has produced a mixed record of successes and failures, shaped by regulatory experimentation, operator consolidation, and evolving buyer requirements. As cities and transport authorities assess their mobility investments, understanding what's actually working—versus what was merely hyped—is essential for informed procurement and design decisions. This analysis examines the UK's transit and micromobility landscape through the lens of emerging standards that are reshaping how public and private buyers evaluate solutions.

Quick Answer

In the UK transit and micromobility sector, docked bike-share systems (particularly London's Santander Cycles and Manchester's Beryl) are working, delivering consistent ridership growth and positive unit economics. Bus franchising models (as in Greater Manchester) are demonstrating improved service coordination. What isn't working: free-floating e-scooter trials have shown mixed results with ongoing safety concerns, and demand-responsive transit (DRT) pilots have struggled to achieve cost-effective scale. What's next: emerging MDS (Mobility Data Specification) standards are reshaping procurement requirements, and integrated ticketing mandates are forcing operator interoperability.

Why This Matters

The UK invests over £12 billion annually in public transport subsidies and infrastructure, with micromobility and shared transport representing a growing share of urban mobility expenditure. For product and design teams, understanding which models are succeeding—and the standards driving buyer requirements—determines where to focus development resources.

The Department for Transport's ongoing e-scooter trial program, bus franchising legislation, and emerging data standards are creating new requirements for operators and technology providers. Product teams that anticipate these requirements will capture market share; those that ignore them will face procurement barriers.

Beyond commercial implications, the success or failure of transit and micromobility investments has direct climate impact. Transport is the UK's largest emitting sector at 27% of total emissions, with surface transport comprising the majority. Scaling effective low-carbon mobility options is essential to achieving net-zero targets.

Key Takeaways

• Docked bike-share systems are achieving 15-20% annual ridership growth in UK cities, with e-bike integration accelerating adoption
• Bus franchising in Greater Manchester has improved service reliability by 18% in its first year of operation
• E-scooter trials have produced variable results, with accident rates and pavement riding remaining concerns that delay permanent legalization
• Demand-responsive transit pilots have struggled with unit economics, achieving costs of £8-15 per passenger trip versus £2-4 for fixed-route bus
• MDS (Mobility Data Specification) is becoming a de facto requirement for micromobility procurement, mandating standardized data sharing
• Integrated ticketing requirements are accelerating, with BODS (Bus Open Data Service) compliance now mandatory for all UK bus operators
• The Transport Act 2025 provisions will enable broader franchising authority, reshaping the buyer landscape

The Basics: Understanding What's Working

Docked Bike-Share Systems: Consistent Success

The UK's docked bike-share systems have matured into reliable, profitable operations after early struggles. London's Santander Cycles (formerly Boris Bikes) achieved 11.5 million rides in 2024, up from 10.9 million in 2023, with e-bike integration driving suburban expansion.

Key success factors include:

Infrastructure investment: Transport for London's investment in over 800 docking stations provides the density necessary for convenient point-to-point travel. Station placement near transit hubs, commercial centers, and residential areas creates a network effect that free-floating systems struggle to replicate.

Hybrid fleet management: The introduction of e-bikes to the Santander Cycles fleet (now representing 30% of the fleet) has expanded the system's effective range and appeal. E-bikes enable trips that would be too strenuous on traditional bikes, particularly in hilly areas and for longer distances.

Pricing structure: Annual memberships at £120 (roughly £10/month) provide predictable revenue and encourage regular use, while casual hire pricing of £1.65 for 30 minutes captures occasional users without excessive subsidy.

Lessons for product teams: Design for infrastructure integration; develop hybrid pedal/electric fleet management capabilities; build subscription and usage-based pricing flexibility.

Bus Franchising: Reclaiming Coordination

Greater Manchester's bus franchising implementation, launched in 2024 under the Bus Services Act 2017 powers, represents the most significant structural change to UK bus services since deregulation in 1986.

What franchising enables:

• Integrated network design: The Greater Manchester Combined Authority (GMCA) now specifies routes, frequencies, and fares rather than leaving these to operator commercial decisions
• Unified ticketing: A single fare structure across all operators eliminates the fragmentation that discouraged multi-operator journeys
• Coordinated scheduling: Bus-rail connections are optimized across the network rather than competing for the same passengers
• Consistent branding: The "Bee Network" identity provides legibility that fragmented operator branding lacked

Early results: In the first year of franchised operation, on-time performance improved from 78% to 92%, ridership increased 8% year-over-year, and customer satisfaction scores rose 15 percentage points. Operating costs increased 5% due to service enhancements, offset by fare revenue growth.

Implications for suppliers: Franchising shifts purchasing authority from multiple private operators to combined authorities. Product teams should anticipate consolidated procurement, longer contract cycles, and more demanding technical specifications.

Understanding What Isn't Working

E-Scooter Trials: Mixed Results

The UK's e-scooter trial program, launched in 2020 and extended through 2026, has produced variable outcomes across participating cities:

Safety concerns persist: Department for Transport data shows e-scooter casualty rates approximately 3x higher per mile traveled than cycling, though absolute numbers remain relatively small. Pavement riding remains prevalent despite prohibitions, creating pedestrian conflicts.

Utilization varies dramatically: Top-performing cities (Bristol, Nottingham) achieve 3-4 trips per scooter per day; underperforming cities see less than 1 trip per day, making operations unsustainable.

Regulatory uncertainty: The delay in permanent e-scooter legislation has constrained operator investment and prevented the infrastructure improvements (charging points, designated parking) that could address trial limitations.

Key failure patterns:

• Cities that deployed without adequate enforcement saw higher safety incidents
• Markets with limited cycling culture showed lower adoption rates
• Areas lacking protected infrastructure experienced more vehicle conflicts

Demand-Responsive Transit: The Scaling Challenge

DRT pilots across UK regions have struggled to achieve cost-effective operations:

Unit economics remain challenging: Typical DRT services cost £8-15 per passenger trip in operating costs, compared to £2-4 for fixed-route bus service. Even with premium fares, substantial subsidy is required.

Utilization optimization is difficult: DRT vehicles often operate with single passengers due to routing constraints, negating the efficiency that shared transport should provide.

Technology has not solved fundamental constraints: Advanced routing algorithms have improved vehicle utilization by 20-30%, but this improvement is insufficient to close the unit economics gap with fixed-route service.

Where DRT works: Rural areas with dispersed populations where fixed-route service is infeasible; feeder services connecting villages to transit hubs; accessibility transport for mobility-impaired passengers. These use cases accept higher per-trip costs because the alternative is no service at all.

What's Next: Emerging Standards Reshaping Buyer Requirements

MDS (Mobility Data Specification)

The Mobility Data Specification, originally developed by Los Angeles DOT and now maintained by the Open Mobility Foundation, is becoming the standard for micromobility data exchange:

What MDS requires: Real-time and historical data on vehicle location, trip patterns, and maintenance status, provided via standardized APIs. This enables cities to monitor operator compliance, manage parking and rebalancing, and integrate micromobility data into broader transport planning.

UK adoption trajectory: London, Manchester, and Edinburgh now require MDS compliance for micromobility permits. Other cities are expected to follow as procurement frameworks standardize.

Implications for product teams: Build MDS-compliant data pipelines into micromobility products from the start. Non-compliant products face growing procurement barriers as MDS becomes mandatory.

BODS (Bus Open Data Service) Expansion

The UK's Bus Open Data Service, mandatory for all bus operators since 2021, is expanding in scope:

Current requirements: Real-time vehicle location, fares, and timetable data published via standardized APIs.

Emerging requirements: The DfT is consulting on expanding BODS to include occupancy data, accessibility information, and integration with rail and micromobility systems.

Implications for product teams: Design for open data publication from the outset. Products that treat operational data as proprietary assets will face compliance burdens as open data requirements expand.

Decision Framework: Evaluating Transit and Micromobility Solutions

For product and design teams evaluating solutions in this space, apply the following framework:

Regulatory Alignment

1. Is the solution compliant with current standards? (MDS, BODS, accessibility requirements)
2. Is the solution designed for emerging requirements? (expanded data sharing, integrated ticketing)
3. Does the solution support franchising contexts? (consolidated procurement, longer contract cycles)

Operational Sustainability

1. What are the unit economics at realistic utilization? (not pilot conditions)
2. What is the total cost of ownership including infrastructure? (charging, parking, maintenance)
3. What labor model does the solution require? (gig, employed, mixed)

Integration Capability

1. Can the solution integrate with existing transit systems? (ticketing, journey planning, data)
2. Does the solution support multi-modal journeys? (first/last mile connections)
3. Is the solution compatible with MaaS platforms? (API access, data standards)

Practical Examples

1. Transport for Greater Manchester: Bus Franchising Implementation

TfGM's implementation of bus franchising under the Bee Network brand demonstrates coordinated procurement at scale:

Implementation: TfGM assumed responsibility for specifying routes, frequencies, and fares across Greater Manchester, contracting with operators (Go North West, Diamond, Stagecoach) to deliver specified services. Unified branding, ticketing, and customer information systems were developed centrally.

Outcomes: On-time performance improved from 78% to 92% within 12 months. Ridership increased 8% year-over-year against flat regional trends. Customer satisfaction increased 15 percentage points. The Bee Network app achieved 500,000 downloads with integrated real-time information and ticketing.

Lessons for product teams: Design products for coordinated procurement contexts; build flexibility for authority-specified operations rather than operator-led commercial decisions; prioritize API integration for unified information systems.

2. Beryl Manchester: Docked Bike-Share Expansion

Beryl's operation in Greater Manchester demonstrates successful bike-share expansion in a challenging market:

Implementation: Beryl deployed 2,000 bikes across Manchester, Salford, and Trafford with a hybrid docked/geofenced model. Integration with TfGM journey planning and the Bee Network ticketing roadmap positioned the service as transit-complementary.

Outcomes: The service achieved 1.2 million trips in 2024, with average utilization of 4.3 trips per bike per day. E-bikes represent 40% of the fleet and generate 55% of trips. Partnership with TfGM on station locations near Metrolink stops created strong first/last-mile demand.

Lessons for product teams: Design for transit integration from launch; develop e-bike capability as a core feature rather than add-on; build partnerships with transport authorities as a competitive advantage.

3. Nottingham E-Scooter Trial: Structured Deployment

Nottingham's e-scooter trial, operated by Wind Mobility, demonstrates structured deployment that addressed common trial failures:

Implementation: The city deployed 500 scooters with mandatory parking zones, in-app education requirements, and enforcement partnerships with local police. Geofencing restricted speeds in pedestrian areas and prohibited pavement parking.

Outcomes: Nottingham achieved incident rates 40% below the national trial average. Utilization averaged 3.8 trips per scooter per day, supporting operator profitability. Survey data indicated 35% of trips replaced car journeys.

Lessons for product teams: Build robust geofencing and speed management capabilities; design for enforcement integration; develop user education features that meet regulatory requirements.

Common Mistakes

Ignoring Emerging Standards

Products designed without MDS compliance or BODS integration face growing procurement barriers. Retrofitting standards compliance is expensive; building it in from the start is essential.

Assuming Pilot Economics Scale

DRT services that appear viable in pilot conditions often fail at scale due to utilization challenges. Product teams should model unit economics at realistic operational scale, not optimistic pilot conditions.

Designing for Deregulated Markets

The UK's shift toward franchising and coordinated procurement is reshaping the buyer landscape. Products designed for fragmented operator markets may not fit consolidated authority procurement.

Underestimating Safety Requirements

E-scooter trials have demonstrated that safety performance is a gating factor for permanent legalization. Products with inadequate safety features face regulatory barriers regardless of commercial viability.

FAQ

Q: When will e-scooters be permanently legalized in the UK?

A: The DfT has extended trials through 2026, with legislation expected to follow trial conclusions. Current indications suggest legalization with significant safety requirements (speed limits, geofencing, insurance mandates) rather than the lighter-touch approach initially anticipated.

Q: How will bus franchising expand beyond Greater Manchester?

A: The Transport Act 2025 simplifies the franchising process, removing the requirement for impact assessments that made the original franchising process lengthy. Liverpool City Region, South Yorkshire, and West Yorkshire are expected to pursue franchising in 2026-2027.

Q: What data standards should product teams prioritize?

A: MDS for micromobility, BODS for bus services, and GTFS/GTFS-RT for general transit integration. Products that support these standards will have procurement advantages; those that don't will face barriers.

Q: How should DRT services be positioned to achieve sustainability?

A: Focus on use cases where fixed-route service is infeasible: rural areas, accessibility transport, and low-demand time periods (late night). Avoid positioning DRT as a replacement for viable fixed-route service, where unit economics favor traditional buses.

Action Checklist

• Audit current product capabilities against MDS and BODS requirements
• Develop roadmap for emerging standard compliance (expanded BODS, integrated ticketing)
• Model unit economics at operational scale rather than pilot conditions
• Evaluate product fit for franchising and coordinated procurement contexts
• Build safety features that meet anticipated regulatory requirements
• Develop transit integration capabilities (APIs, data sharing, ticketing)
• Engage with DfT consultations on emerging standards and regulations

Sources

• Department for Transport. (2024). E-scooter Trials Evaluation Report.
• Transport for Greater Manchester. (2024). Bee Network Year One Report.
• Transport for London. (2024). Santander Cycles Annual Report 2024.
• Open Mobility Foundation. (2024). Mobility Data Specification Version 2.0.
• Bus Open Data Service. (2024). BODS Technical Guidance.
• Urban Transport Group. (2024). The State of Bus Franchising in England.
• Campaign for Better Transport. (2024). Local Bus Services Report.