Executive summary

Asia is home to almost forty percent of global aviation traffic and its airlines are under growing pressure to adopt low‑carbon fuels. However, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) uptake across the region remains low and supply is dominated by hydroprocessed ester and fatty‑acid (HEFA) fuels derived from waste oils and fats. That feedstock pool is tiny—global used‑cooking‑oil (UCO) supply was about 3.7 billion gallons in 2022 and may reach 5–10 billion gallons by 2030, meeting only 1–2 percent of projected aviation demand. Producing HEFA at scale would require large tracts of cropland; one assessment estimated that if Europe relied on oil crops for SAF, it would need around 5 percent of EU arable land. Asia’s waste‑oil pool is larger than other regions, yet certification systems remain uneven and supply chains are fragmented. These constraints have spurred interest in alcohol‑to‑jet (AtJ) and power‑to‑liquids (PtL) pathways—e‑fuels manufactured from renewable electricity, water and captured carbon. Unlike bio‑based SAF, PtL e‑fuels face minimal physical feedstock constraints because renewable energy and CO₂ sources are abundant, but they are expensive: producing e‑kerosene requires 0.8 kg of hydrogen and about 50–56 kWh of electricity per kilogram of H₂, consumes 3.1 kg of CO₂ per kg of fuel and offers only 20–30 percent efficiency. Current e‑kerosene costs about €5 per litre, roughly four to ten times the price of conventional jet fuel. This interview‑style brief explores these trade‑offs from an engineering perspective, highlighting fast‑moving subsegments, real‑world examples and a framework for navigating the transition.

Why it matters

• Asia’s aviation boom – The Asia‑Pacific region is the world’s fastest‑growing aviation market and will account for roughly 40 percent of global traffic by 2030. Yet regional mandates for SAF are just beginning to emerge: Japan has adopted a binding 10 percent SAF mandate by 2030, Singapore targets 1 percent by 2026 rising to 3–5 percent by 2030, India aims for 1 percent SAF by 2027 and 2 percent by 2028, and South Korea plans a 1 percent blend by 2027. Without coordinated action, survey respondents expect only 2–5 percent SAF blending by 2030.
• Feedstock scarcity – Waste oils and fats remain the dominant feedstock for HEFA fuels. Global UCO and tallow supply is limited and under pressure from competing uses. Without new feedstocks, HEFA can meet only a small fraction of jet fuel demand. Bio‑based routes like alcohol‑to‑jet (fermenting ethanol from sugarcane or agricultural residues) can scale further but still depend on agricultural land and sustainable biomass supply.
• Advantages of e‑fuels – PtL e‑fuels convert renewable electricity, water and captured CO₂ into drop‑in fuels. S&P Global notes that e‑fuels face minimal physical feedstock constraints because renewable energy and CO₂ sources (including direct air capture) are technically abundant. However, high capital costs, technology immaturity and uncertain policies hinder investment.
• Water, energy and CO₂ requirements – Engineering teams must secure reliable supplies of renewable electricity and water. Each kilogram of hydrogen produced via electrolysis requires 9 litres of water chemically and about 20–30 litres including purification and cooling. Producing one kilogram of e‑kerosene uses 0.8 kg of hydrogen, which consumes 50–56 kWh of electricity, and 3.1 kg of CO₂.

Key concepts and market fundamentals

Pathways and feedstocks

• HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) – Converts waste oils (used cooking oil, tallow) or vegetable oils into jet fuel using hydroprocessing. Supply is limited; global UCO production may reach 5–10 billion gallons by 2030, meeting only 1–2 percent of aviation demand. HEFA competes with biodiesel for the same feedstock and requires robust certification to ensure sustainability.
• AtJ (alcohol‑to‑jet) – Produces jet fuel from alcohols such as ethanol or isobutanol. Ethanol feedstock is abundant (around 30 billion gallons produced worldwide), and AtJ can leverage agricultural residues or municipal solid waste. LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines plant in the United States converts ethanol into nine million gallons of SAF and one million gallons of renewable diesel per year. AtJ offers feedstock flexibility but still relies on biomass and fermentation infrastructure.
• FT‑BtL (Fischer–Tropsch biomass‑to‑liquids) – Gasifies lignocellulosic biomass (woody residues, bagasse, municipal solid waste) into syngas and converts it to liquid hydrocarbons. This pathway can utilise non‑food feedstocks but remains expensive and early stage.
• PtL/e‑fuels – Synthesises fuels from green hydrogen and CO₂. PtL avoids biomass constraints and can integrate with carbon capture or direct air capture. However, the process is energy‑intensive: e‑kerosene production is only 20–30 percent efficient, meaning three to five units of renewable electricity are required to deliver one unit of fuel energy.

Asia’s feedstock landscape

Waste oils and residues are more abundant in Asia than in Europe or North America due to large food service industries and agricultural processing. The Asia‑Pacific Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook notes that the region’s waste‑oil pool offers “unmatched supply potential,” yet sustainability verification and certification remain uneven. Governments are beginning to set blending mandates (Japan 10 %, Singapore 1 % rising to 3–5 %, India 1–2 %, Indonesia/Malaysia/Thailand 1 % in late 2020s), but policy support and harmonized lifecycle accounting are still developing. Engineers must navigate diverse feedstock markets, regulatory frameworks and supply chain logistics across countries.

Fast‑moving subsegments and examples

1. Alcohol‑to‑Jet pilots and ethanol partnerships

What’s happening – AtJ projects are gaining momentum because ethanol feedstock is plentiful in countries like India, Thailand and Australia. LanzaJet’s Freedom Pines facility (USA) is a model: it produces nine million gallons of SAF per year from ethanol, with backing from government grants and offtake agreements. Asia could replicate this model using domestic ethanol supplies from sugarcane molasses or rice straw. Pilots in Thailand and Japan are exploring conversion of local bioethanol to SAF, though projects have not yet reached final investment decision.

Why it matters – AtJ offers feedstock flexibility and can scale beyond waste oils, but engineers must manage fermentation yields, impurities and energy use. Ethanol‑to‑jet conversion still requires hydrogen for upgrading, and feedstock sustainability must be assured through robust MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) systems.

2. Power‑to‑liquid e‑fuel hubs

What’s happening – PtL projects in Australia and the Middle East offer a blueprint for Asia. For example, the Rattlesnake Gap e‑methanol project in Texas plans to produce 120,000 tonnes of e‑methanol annually using 500 MW of wind and solar power, while the Matagorda facility targets 1.4 million tonnes per year with 1.8 GW of electrolyser capacity, recycling 2 million tonnes of CO₂. These projects demonstrate that large‑scale e‑fuel plants can be co‑located with renewable energy and industrial CO₂ sources. In Asia, Australia’s A$1.1 billion Cleaner Fuels Programme is funding PtL and SAF projects, and Japan’s government has earmarked funds for power‑to‑liquids research. Hydrogen valleys in India and China may become future PtL hubs if renewable power and carbon capture projects expand.

Why it matters – PtL e‑fuels bypass biomass constraints, using renewable electricity and CO₂ as feedstock. Engineers must ensure continuous renewable power, water supply and CO₂ sourcing. Electrolysis efficiency and plant integration are critical. Project financing remains challenging due to high capital cost and policy uncertainty.

3. Digital MRV and traceability

What’s happening – As feedstock supply chains globalize, digital tools are emerging to verify sustainability and trace carbon intensity. Asia’s SAF market suffers from uneven certification. In Europe, digital product passports for batteries and other goods create traceability of materials and emissions; similar concepts are being explored for fuels. Blockchain‑based systems can record feedstock origin, processing emissions and offtake transactions, enabling producers to prove compliance with mandates and airlines to claim credits. Early pilots in Singapore are testing digital MRV for waste oil supply to HEFA plants and for carbon credit generation.

Why it matters – Engineers need reliable data on feedstock origin, carbon intensity and energy use to design compliant facilities and qualify for incentives. Digital MRV supports book‑and‑claim systems that decouple physical SAF supply from where it is consumed, allowing airlines to invest in remote production while claiming decarbonisation benefits—a key recommendation of the Asia SAF Association.

4. Policy and finance accelerators

What’s happening – Nine Asia‑Pacific countries now have SAF targets. Investment momentum is growing: the Qantas‑Airbus Sustainable Aviation Fuel Financing Alliance raised about US$200 million, investing in projects across the U.S. and APAC. A separate US$150 million fund launched by oneworld airlines, Singapore Airlines and Breakthrough Energy Ventures aims to accelerate SAF technology commercialisation. Australia’s A$1.1 billion fund supports domestic PtL and HEFA projects.

Why it matters – Engineers must align project design with evolving mandates, incentives and financing structures. Cross‑sector alliances and public‑private funds can de‑risk investments and secure offtake agreements. However, financing remains scarce compared with Europe and the U.S., and many projects have not reached FID due to regulatory uncertainty.

What’s working

• Waste‑oil aggregation and pre‑treatment – Asia’s food industries generate large volumes of used cooking oil; companies are investing in collection networks and pre‑treatment technologies to improve feedstock quality and reduce contaminants, improving yields for HEFA plants.
• AtJ pilot projects – Early AtJ plants have demonstrated technical feasibility at modest scale. The Freedom Pines facility proves ethanol‑to‑jet conversion can deliver substantial SAF volumes. Similar pilot programmes in Thailand and Japan are developing local supply chains.
• Policy momentum – Countries are setting SAF blending targets and funding programmes, such as Australia’s Cleaner Fuels Programme and Japan’s PtL funding. Mandates create demand signals that encourage investment.
• Digital MRV pilots – Singapore and Malaysia are trialling blockchain‑based tracking for waste oil feedstocks, offering traceability and enabling book‑and‑claim frameworks. These systems lay the groundwork for digital product passports in the fuels sector.

What isn’t working

• Feedstock supply and certification – While Asia has abundant waste oils and residues, collection networks and sustainability verification are inconsistent. Competing demand from biodiesel and chemical industries tightens supply, and fraudulent or untraceable feedstock undermines trust.
• High cost and energy demand of PtL – E‑fuels require large quantities of renewable electricity, water and hydrogen. Producing one kilogram of e‑kerosene uses 0.8 kg H₂, 3.1 kg CO₂ and 50–56 kWh of electricity. The overall efficiency is 20–30 percent, and current costs are €5 per litre.
• Limited project finance – High capital costs and regulatory uncertainty have left many projects stuck at pre‑FID. The majority of e‑SAF projects announced in Europe and Asia have not secured financing or firm offtake agreements.
• Water and CO₂ sourcing – Engineers must secure sustainable water supply (20–30 L per kg of hydrogen) and captured CO₂ (3.1 kg per kg fuel). Competition for renewable power and CO₂ (e.g., from ethanol plants or industrial emitters) adds complexity.
• Infrastructure and policy fragmentation – SAF policies vary widely across Asia. Without harmonised standards and lifecycle accounting, cross‑border trade and book‑and‑claim systems remain challenging. Few countries have adopted comprehensive MRV frameworks.

A quick framework for engineering teams

1. Map feedstock availability – Quantify regional supply of waste oils, agricultural residues, and renewable electricity. Evaluate UCO collection networks and identify industrial sources of CO₂.
2. Select pathways based on resources – Where waste oils are plentiful and certification is robust, HEFA may be the most cost‑effective near‑term option. In regions with abundant ethanol, AtJ can scale quickly. Sites with cheap renewable power and access to captured CO₂ may favour PtL e‑fuels.
3. Secure water and hydrogen supply – Factor in 20–30 L of water per kg of hydrogen and ensure electrolyser capacity aligns with renewable power availability. Explore synergies with green hydrogen hubs and industrial hydrogen users.
4. Integrate MRV and digital passports – Implement digital tools to verify feedstock origin, carbon intensity and sustainability. Adopt blockchain or data platforms that support book‑and‑claim transactions and integrate with emerging digital product passport standards.
5. Plan for project finance and offtake – Engage early with investors, airlines and regulators. Structure contracts that allocate risk and reward fairly, leveraging public‑private funds where available.
6. Design for modularity and scalability – Start with pilot‑scale plants to validate technology and supply chains. Modular plant designs allow incremental expansion and reduce capex risk.

Fast‑moving segments to watch

• Ethanol‑based AtJ expansion – Countries like India and Thailand are exploring AtJ plants using sugarcane and rice residues. Success will depend on feedstock logistics and hydrogen integration.
• PtL hubs co‑located with renewable power – Large PtL projects are emerging in Australia and China’s coastal regions. These hubs use on‑site solar and wind with adjacent CO₂ sources.
• Digital MRV platforms – Asia may pioneer digital MRV frameworks to certify feedstock origin and carbon intensity, building on pilot projects in Singapore and Malaysia.
• Cross‑sector alliances – Partnerships between airlines, fuel producers and technology firms (e.g., the Qantas‑Airbus fund) accelerate funding and offtake agreements.
• Policy harmonisation – Regional harmonisation of SAF mandates and lifecycle accounting would unlock cross‑border supply chains and book‑and‑claim markets.

Action checklist

1. Audit regional feedstock – Assess availability of waste oils, residues, ethanol and renewable energy; identify certification gaps and plan for traceability.
2. Choose the right pathway – Match local resources with HEFA, AtJ or PtL pathways. Consider hybrid approaches (e.g., co‑processing AtJ with PtL to balance feedstock and cost).
3. Secure hydrogen, water and CO₂ – Align electrolyser capacity with renewable power; plan for water treatment and CO₂ capture infrastructure.
4. Implement digital traceability – Adopt blockchain or cloud‑based MRV tools to track feedstock origin and carbon intensity. Prepare for digital product passport requirements.
5. Engage with policy and finance – Participate in consultations on SAF mandates; leverage public funds and cross‑sector alliances; negotiate offtake agreements early.
6. Pilot, then scale – Design modular pilot plants to test technology and supply chains; incorporate lessons before scaling to commercial projects.

FAQ

What is the biggest constraint on SAF supply in Asia? The main constraint is feedstock availability and certification. Waste oils and fats are limited, and agricultural residues must be sustainably harvested. Global UCO supply may reach 5–10 billion gallons by 2030, meeting only 1–2 percent of aviation fuel demand. Asia has abundant waste‑oil sources, but collection networks and sustainability verification remain uneven.

Why are e‑fuels attractive despite high costs? Power‑to‑liquid e‑fuels have minimal physical feedstock constraints because renewable electricity and CO₂ are widely available. They can produce drop‑in fuels that are compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure. However, they require large quantities of hydrogen, electricity and CO₂, leading to high costs and energy losses.

What role does digital MRV play? Digital MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) platforms record feedstock origin, processing emissions and fuel transactions. They enable book‑and‑claim systems where airlines can purchase SAF credits without physically taking delivery. This decouples production from consumption and helps scale SAF supply while ensuring sustainability.

How much water is needed for e‑fuel production? Producing one kilogram of hydrogen via electrolysis requires 9 litres of water chemically and 20–30 litres including purification and cooling. Since e‑kerosene uses 0.8 kg H₂ per kg fuel, water demand is significant. Engineers must ensure sustainable water sources and consider recycling processes.

Are Asia’s policy targets sufficient? Most Asia‑Pacific targets are modest (1–3 percent blends), except Japan’s 10 percent by 2030. Survey respondents expect that without stronger incentives, SAF blending will remain 2–5 percent by 2030. Stronger mandates, lifecycle accounting and investment incentives are needed to close the gap.

Sources

• Clean Fuels Alliance. (2024). Global Used Cooking Oil Supply Forecasts. Clean Fuels Alliance.
• SimpliFlying. (2025). Asia-Pacific Sustainable Aviation Fuel Outlook. SimpliFlying.
• Green Fuel Journal. (2025). E-Kerosene Production: Energy and Resource Requirements. Green Fuel Journal.
• RMI. (2024). Water Consumption for Green Hydrogen Production. Rocky Mountain Institute.
• S&P Global Commodity Insights. (2025). E-Fuels Market Analysis: Feedstock Constraints and Opportunities. S&P Global.
• Transport & Environment. (2025). EU ReFuelEU Aviation Mandates Assessment. Transport & Environment.
• LanzaJet. (2025). Freedom Pines Facility Production Report. LanzaJet.
• HIF Global. (2025). Rattlesnake Gap and Matagorda E-Methanol Projects Overview. HIF Global.
• Asia SAF Association. (2025). APAC Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending Forecast. ASAFA.
• European Commission. (2024). Assessment of Land Requirements for Aviation Biofuels. European Commission.