Regional spotlight: Carbon markets & offsets integrity in Sub-Saharan Africa — what's different and why it matters

Sub-Saharan Africa hosts roughly 16% of the world's forests, vast savanna ecosystems, and some of the largest remaining intact landscapes on the planet, yet the region accounts for less than 5% of global voluntary carbon credit issuances by volume. That imbalance is shifting. Between 2023 and 2025, voluntary credit issuances originating in Sub-Saharan Africa grew at a compound annual rate of approximately 28%, outpacing every other developing region. At the same time, high-profile integrity scandals involving projects in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, and Kenya have forced buyers, project developers, and governments to reckon with structural challenges unique to the continent. Understanding these dynamics is essential for any procurement professional sourcing offsets from African projects or considering future exposure.

Why It Matters

The global voluntary carbon market was valued at approximately $1.7 billion in 2025, according to Ecosystem Marketplace. Sub-Saharan Africa's share has grown from roughly 3% in 2020 to an estimated 8% in 2025, driven by expanding REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) forestry programs, cookstove distribution networks, and emerging nature-based removal projects. This growth trajectory reflects both the region's enormous biophysical potential and the increasing demand from multinational buyers seeking credits with strong co-benefit narratives around biodiversity, livelihoods, and Sustainable Development Goal alignment.

However, the integrity landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa differs materially from what procurement teams encounter in Latin America or Southeast Asia. Three structural factors drive this divergence. First, land tenure systems across much of the region remain communal or customary rather than formally titled, creating ambiguity around carbon rights that has no parallel in markets like Brazil or Indonesia. Second, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) infrastructure is thinner, with fewer accredited auditors, limited satellite ground-truthing capacity, and significant connectivity gaps in project areas. Third, the regulatory environment is evolving rapidly, with at least 14 Sub-Saharan countries enacting or proposing carbon trading regulations between 2022 and 2025, creating a patchwork of rules that buyers must navigate.

The Article 6 framework under the Paris Agreement adds another layer of complexity. Corresponding adjustments, the mechanism by which countries avoid double-counting emissions reductions sold internationally, require robust national registries and clear policies on which reductions a country will authorize for export versus retain toward its own Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). As of early 2026, only Kenya, Ghana, Mozambique, and Rwanda have operational or near-operational frameworks for authorizing Article 6 transfers, leaving most of the region in regulatory limbo.

Regional Regulatory Landscape

Kenya's Climate Change (Amendment) Act of 2023 was the first comprehensive carbon market regulation in Sub-Saharan Africa, establishing mandatory benefit-sharing requirements (at least 40% of revenues must flow to local communities), registration requirements for all carbon projects, and a national carbon registry administered by the National Environment Management Authority (NEMA). The law created immediate compliance obligations for existing projects, some of which had operated for over a decade under voluntary frameworks without comparable community payment structures.

Ghana's Carbon Market Framework, finalized in 2024, takes a different approach by centralizing authorization through the Environmental Protection Agency and requiring government approval before any credits can be transferred internationally. Ghana has been selective, approving Article 6 transfers for cookstove and renewable energy projects while retaining forestry-based reductions for its NDC. This strategy reflects the government's position that forest carbon is a sovereign resource, not merely a commodity for international markets.

Zimbabwe's Carbon Credit Policy, published in draft form in 2023, proposed that the government retain 50% of all carbon credit revenues generated within its borders. After significant pushback from project developers and international organizations, the final policy adopted in 2024 set the government share at 30%, with requirements that at least 20% reach affected communities. The controversy highlighted tensions between sovereign resource claims and the commercial viability of carbon projects.

Across francophone West and Central Africa, regulatory development has been slower. Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon are developing frameworks, but as of early 2026, most projects in these countries operate under voluntary standards (primarily Verra's VCS and Gold Standard) without specific national carbon regulations. This creates both flexibility and risk for buyers, as future regulations could retroactively alter project economics or credit eligibility.

Market Structure and Dynamics

The Sub-Saharan African carbon market is dominated by three project types: forestry and land use (approximately 45% of issuances), clean cooking (approximately 35%), and renewable energy (approximately 15%), with emerging categories like regenerative agriculture and blue carbon comprising the remainder. This distribution reflects the region's comparative advantages but also concentrates risk in categories that have faced the most integrity scrutiny globally.

Forestry and REDD+ projects in the region illustrate the integrity challenge most acutely. A 2023 investigation by The Guardian and Die Zeit found that approximately 90% of Verra-certified rainforest offsets globally showed no evidence of meaningful deforestation reduction. While the analysis has been contested methodologically, several Sub-Saharan African REDD+ projects were specifically cited, including large-scale concessions in the DRC's Mai-Ndombe province where baseline deforestation assumptions appeared to significantly overestimate counterfactual threat levels. Verra subsequently tightened its methodology (VM0048, released in 2024), requiring jurisdictional baselines and more conservative additionality assessments, but the reputational damage among buyers has been lasting.

Clean cooking projects represent a distinct dynamic. Africa Clean Cooking Alliance data indicates that Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for approximately 900 million people lacking access to clean cooking, representing the world's largest addressable market. Carbon credits from improved cookstove distribution programs fund a significant portion of stove subsidies, creating a direct link between credit integrity and energy access outcomes. Gold Standard has certified over 150 clean cooking programs in the region, with typical credit prices of $8 to $15 per tonne of CO2e avoided. However, usage monitoring remains a persistent challenge, as verifying that distributed stoves are actively used (rather than sitting idle) requires household surveys, stove usage monitors, or remote sensing approaches that add cost and complexity.

South Africa occupies a unique position as the region's only country with a compliance carbon market. The Carbon Tax Act, effective since 2019, imposes a levy on emissions above certain thresholds, currently set at approximately $9 per tonne of CO2e after accounting for allowances. While the tax rate remains below levels that would drive significant behavioral change, South Africa's experience with emissions reporting, registry management, and compliance enforcement provides institutional capacity that no other Sub-Saharan country has yet developed.

Implementation Realities

Land Tenure and Carbon Rights

Land tenure is the foundational challenge for nature-based carbon projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank estimates that only 10% of rural land across the region is formally registered. In countries like Tanzania, Mozambique, and the DRC, customary tenure systems govern land use without formal documentation, creating ambiguity about who has the legal right to sell carbon stored in forests or soils. Several high-profile disputes have emerged where national governments, local communities, and project developers each claimed carbon rights over the same area. The Wildlife Works Carbon project in Kenya's Kasigau Corridor navigated this challenge by securing community land leases through group ranch conservancies, a model that has been replicated but requires years of community engagement and legal structuring that many developers underestimate.

MRV Infrastructure Gaps

Satellite-based monitoring has improved dramatically, with platforms like Global Forest Watch, Planet Labs, and the European Space Agency's Sentinel program providing near-real-time deforestation alerts at resolutions below 5 meters. However, ground-truthing remains essential, particularly for degradation (as opposed to clear deforestation), soil carbon changes, and cookstove usage verification. Sub-Saharan Africa has fewer than 200 accredited carbon auditors across the entire continent, compared to over 3,000 in Europe. This bottleneck extends verification timelines, increases costs, and sometimes results in less rigorous field assessments than comparable projects in better-served regions. Pachama, Sylvera, and BeZero Carbon have expanded satellite-based ratings coverage for African projects, but their models still rely on ground data that may be sparse.

Benefit-Sharing and Community Engagement

The question of how carbon revenues reach local communities has become central to project credibility. A 2024 analysis by Carbon Market Watch found that across 12 REDD+ projects in Sub-Saharan Africa, community members received between 3% and 45% of total credit revenues, with a median of approximately 12%. Projects with transparent, pre-agreed benefit-sharing mechanisms (such as community development funds with independent oversight) consistently achieved higher community satisfaction scores and lower conflict rates than those where payments were ad hoc or channeled through local government structures.

The Mikoko Pamoja project in Kenya's Gazi Bay provides an instructive model. This community-led mangrove conservation and restoration initiative distributes 100% of carbon credit revenues (approximately $25,000 annually from a relatively small project) directly to community-managed funds supporting education, water infrastructure, and livelihood programs. While the project's scale is modest, its governance structure has been cited by UNFCCC as a best-practice example, and similar models are being replicated in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tanzania.

What Procurement Teams Should Watch

Several developments will shape the Sub-Saharan African carbon market over the next 24 months. First, the operationalization of Article 6 bilateral agreements will determine which project types and countries can supply internationally transferable mitigation outcomes (ITMOs). Switzerland's bilateral agreements with Ghana, Vanuatu, and other countries have established templates, but scaling these arrangements across Africa requires institutional capacity that many governments are still building.

Second, the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) Core Carbon Principles assessment process is evaluating major crediting methodologies and programs. Categories and methodologies that receive CCP labels will command price premiums, while those that do not may face liquidity challenges. Procurement teams should track CCP assessment outcomes for REDD+, clean cooking, and afforestation methodologies commonly used in African projects.

Third, digital MRV technologies are advancing rapidly. Companies like Pachama, Regrow Ag, and Cloud to Street are deploying AI-enhanced satellite monitoring that could significantly reduce verification costs and improve accuracy for African nature-based projects. The convergence of cheaper satellite imagery, improved machine learning models, and expanding mobile connectivity in rural Africa creates conditions for a step-change in MRV quality over the next 2 to 3 years.

Action Checklist

• Audit current portfolio exposure to Sub-Saharan African carbon credits, including project type, vintage, and certification standard
• Verify that REDD+ credits in portfolio use post-2024 methodologies with jurisdictional baselines and conservative additionality assumptions
• Confirm benefit-sharing arrangements for all nature-based projects, with documented community payment records
• Assess Article 6 authorization status for any credits intended for compliance use or corporate net-zero claims
• Request third-party integrity ratings (Sylvera, BeZero, or Calyx Global) for material positions in African offsets
• Monitor regulatory developments in key jurisdictions (Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, Mozambique) for changes affecting credit eligibility or pricing
• Evaluate clean cooking credit portfolios for usage monitoring protocols and stove adoption verification data
• Engage directly with community stakeholders or their representatives before committing to large-scale procurement from specific projects

Sources

• Ecosystem Marketplace. (2025). State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2025. Washington, DC: Forest Trends.
• Carbon Market Watch. (2024). Who Benefits? Revenue Distribution in African REDD+ Projects. Brussels: Carbon Market Watch.
• Verra. (2024). VM0048 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation: Methodology Update. Washington, DC: Verra.
• UNFCCC. (2025). Article 6 Implementation: Progress Report on Corresponding Adjustments and Authorization Frameworks. Bonn: UNFCCC Secretariat.
• World Bank. (2024). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
• Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market. (2025). Assessment Framework: Core Carbon Principles Eligibility. London: ICVCM.
• Africa Clean Cooking Alliance. (2025). Clean Cooking Access in Sub-Saharan Africa: Market and Impact Report. Nairobi: ACCA.