Trend analysis: Nature-related financial disclosures (TNFD) — where the value pools are (and who captures them)

The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures released its final recommendations in September 2023, and the framework has moved faster from publication to adoption than most market observers predicted. By the end of 2025, over 1,200 organizations across 55 countries had registered as TNFD adopters or early reporters, and the framework's four-pillar structure of Locate, Evaluate, Assess, and Prepare (LEAP) has become the de facto standard for nature-risk assessment in financial services. What remains poorly understood, even among sophisticated market participants, is where economic value actually concentrates within the TNFD ecosystem and which players are positioned to capture outsized returns from the transition to nature-integrated financial decision-making.

Why It Matters Now

The economic rationale for TNFD adoption has shifted from reputational positioning to regulatory compliance and material risk management. Three converging forces make the next 24 months critical.

First, regulatory mandates are crystallizing. France's Article 29 of the Energy-Climate Law already requires institutional investors to disclose biodiversity impact strategies. The European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS) under the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) incorporate nature-related disclosures that align closely with TNFD's LEAP framework, applying to approximately 50,000 companies from fiscal year 2025. The UK Financial Conduct Authority published a consultation paper in late 2025 proposing TNFD-aligned nature disclosures for premium-listed companies, following the precedent established by mandatory TCFD reporting. Japan's Financial Services Agency has recommended TNFD adoption in its 2025 Corporate Governance Code revision.

Second, the financial materiality of nature loss is no longer theoretical. The World Economic Forum's 2025 Global Risks Report ranked biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse as the third most severe risk over the next decade, up from fifth in 2023. The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) published scenario analyses estimating that unmanaged nature degradation could reduce global GDP by 2.7% annually by 2030, with agricultural, extractive, and real estate sectors facing the sharpest value erosion. A 2024 study by the Banque de France found that 42% of French financial institution portfolios hold securities with high or very high dependency on at least one ecosystem service, representing approximately EUR 1.1 trillion in exposed assets.

Third, institutional asset owners are translating framework adoption into procurement decisions. The Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, representing over $11 trillion in assets under management, incorporated nature targets into its 2025 target-setting protocol. Major pension funds including ABP (Netherlands), GPIF (Japan), and CalPERS (US) have issued requests for proposals requiring TNFD-aligned reporting from external managers. This procurement pressure is converting voluntary adoption into competitive necessity for asset managers.

Mapping the Value Pools

The TNFD ecosystem generates economic value across five distinct layers, each with different margin profiles, competitive dynamics, and barriers to entry.

Layer 1: Data and Geospatial Intelligence

Nature-related risk assessment requires spatially explicit data linking corporate operations and supply chains to specific ecosystems, biodiversity metrics, and ecosystem service dependencies. This layer represents the foundational infrastructure of TNFD implementation and commands the highest margins in the ecosystem.

The dominant players have built proprietary databases combining satellite imagery, species distribution models, land-use classification, and hydrological mapping. MSCI acquired Trove Research and expanded its biodiversity data capabilities to cover over 10,000 companies with nature-dependency scores. S&P Global integrated geospatial nature-risk data into its Trucost platform, offering LEAP-aligned screening for portfolio managers. Bloomberg Terminal added TNFD-aligned nature metrics to its ESG data module in 2025, making nature-risk data accessible alongside standard financial analytics.

Specialized geospatial platforms capture the highest-value segment. NatureMetrics provides environmental DNA (eDNA) based biodiversity monitoring that converts field samples into quantified species inventories, offering ground-truth validation for satellite-derived estimates. Iceberg Data Lab developed the Corporate Biodiversity Footprint (CBF) methodology used by over 80 financial institutions. The Nature Finance Data Catalogue, launched in 2024, provides open-access ecosystem condition data but lacks the analytics layer that commercial providers monetize.

Value concentration: Data providers with integrated analytics platforms (combining raw data with LEAP-aligned assessment tools) command annual subscription revenues of $100,000-500,000 per institutional client. Pure data providers without analytics integration compete at 60-70% lower price points. The market for TNFD-relevant nature data and analytics reached approximately $1.8 billion in 2025, with projected growth to $4.5 billion by 2028 according to Verdantix estimates.

Layer 2: Software and Assessment Tools

The LEAP approach requires systematic assessment across four phases, and software platforms that operationalize this workflow capture recurring revenue from corporations and financial institutions.

Enterprise sustainability platforms have moved aggressively into TNFD functionality. Watershed added nature-risk modules to its carbon accounting platform in 2024, enabling integrated climate-and-nature reporting. Persefoni developed TNFD-aligned assessment workflows for financial institutions. Workiva extended its SEC filing platform to accommodate TNFD disclosures alongside climate and financial reporting. These platforms compete on integration breadth rather than analytical depth.

Purpose-built TNFD tools occupy a higher-value niche. The Exploring Natural Capital Opportunities, Risks and Exposure (ENCORE) tool, developed by the Natural Capital Finance Alliance, provides sector-level nature dependency mapping used by over 150 financial institutions. Align, the TNFD's own online tool released in 2024, guides preparers through the disclosure process with structured templates. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) provides species occurrence data underlying many commercial assessment tools.

Value concentration: Software platforms capturing integrated climate-nature-financial reporting workflows achieve annual contract values of $200,000-1,000,000 for enterprise clients. Point solutions addressing only TNFD compete at $50,000-150,000 annually but face acquisition risk as larger platforms expand functionality.

Layer 3: Advisory and Assurance Services

The complexity of nature-risk assessment, which requires ecological expertise alongside financial acumen, creates substantial demand for advisory services. This layer currently captures the largest absolute revenue pool but faces margin compression as software tools mature.

The Big Four accounting firms have established dedicated nature-risk practices. EY's Nature-related Risk and Opportunity team advises over 200 companies globally on TNFD alignment. Deloitte's biodiversity strategy practice has grown from 12 to over 80 professionals since 2023. PwC partnered with the World Wildlife Fund to develop nature-risk assessment methodologies for the financial sector. KPMG published a TNFD readiness assessment framework used by banking and insurance clients across Asia-Pacific.

Specialist consultancies capture premium rates for deep ecological expertise. The Biodiversity Consultancy advises multinational extractive and agricultural companies on TNFD-aligned impact assessment. Pollination, the climate-and-nature advisory firm, has built a practice spanning nature-based solutions structuring, biodiversity credit origination, and TNFD advisory. Cambridge Natural Capital Solutions provides academic-grade ecological assessment for organizations requiring rigorous scientific foundations.

Assurance represents an emerging revenue stream. As TNFD disclosures move toward mandatory status, third-party assurance of nature-related data will follow the trajectory established by climate disclosures under TCFD. The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) published its International Standard on Sustainability Assurance (ISSA 5000) in 2024, which encompasses nature-related information. Early assurance engagements are commanding premiums of 30-50% above standard sustainability assurance fees, reflecting the scarcity of qualified practitioners.

Value concentration: Advisory engagements range from $50,000 for basic TNFD gap assessments to $2-5 million for comprehensive LEAP implementation programs at large multinationals. Assurance fees for nature-related disclosures currently range from $75,000-300,000 per engagement. The total addressable market for TNFD advisory and assurance services is estimated at $3.2 billion by 2027.

Layer 4: Financial Products and Instruments

TNFD adoption creates demand for financial products that price nature risk and nature-positive outcomes. This layer is nascent but represents the largest long-term value pool.

Nature-linked bonds and loans have grown from a few pilot transactions to a recognizable asset class. The World Bank issued a $150 million Wildlife Conservation Bond in 2022 (the "Rhino Bond"), and subsequent issuances by development finance institutions have tested structures linking coupon payments to verified biodiversity outcomes. ING and Rabobank have incorporated nature-related covenants into sustainability-linked loans for agricultural borrowers, adjusting interest margins based on soil health metrics and deforestation-free sourcing verification.

Biodiversity credit markets are scaling ahead of mature governance frameworks. Wallacea Trust, ValueNature, and the Biodiversity Credit Alliance have developed methodologies for quantifying and trading measurable units of biodiversity gain. The voluntary biodiversity credit market transacted approximately $12 million in 2024, a fraction of the $1.4 billion voluntary carbon market, but demand signals from corporates with TNFD-driven nature-positive commitments suggest rapid acceleration.

Nature-related insurance products represent another frontier. Swiss Re and Munich Re have developed parametric insurance products covering ecosystem service losses, including coral reef insurance (deployed in Quintana Roo, Mexico, and Fiji) and mangrove-based coastal protection insurance. These products convert ecosystem valuation data generated through TNFD processes into actuarial inputs.

Value concentration: Financial product structuring and origination fees currently represent a small but rapidly growing pool. Lead arrangers of nature-linked bonds capture 1-3% of issuance value. Biodiversity credit origination margins range from 25-40% for project developers. The long-term value pool depends on regulatory mandates converting voluntary nature-positive commitments into compliance obligations with quantified targets.

Layer 5: Nature-Positive Solutions and Verification

Organizations disclosing nature-related risks and impacts under TNFD face pressure to demonstrate mitigation actions, creating demand for nature-positive solutions and their verification.

Ecosystem restoration companies, regenerative agriculture platforms, and nature-based solutions developers convert TNFD-driven corporate commitments into on-the-ground projects. Terraformation provides reforestation project development and monitoring. South Pole and Wildlife Works originate nature-based carbon-and-biodiversity projects. The Science Based Targets Network (SBTN) published corporate nature targets in 2023, and companies setting SBTN-validated targets require implementation pathways that solution providers fulfill.

Monitoring and verification technologies underpin credibility. Planet Labs, Satelligence, and Pachama provide satellite-based ecosystem monitoring. NatureMetrics and Swift deliver field-based biodiversity measurement through eDNA and acoustic monitoring. These verification technologies are essential for the assurance process described in Layer 3 and for biodiversity credit integrity in Layer 4.

Value concentration: Solution providers compete on project-level economics with variable margins depending on geography, ecosystem type, and buyer willingness to pay premium prices for high-integrity nature outcomes. Verification technology providers achieve SaaS-like margins of 60-75% once platform costs are amortized.

Who Captures the Most Value

Across the five layers, value capture concentrates among players with three characteristics: proprietary data assets that create switching costs, integrated platforms spanning multiple layers, and regulatory positioning that converts voluntary adoption into compliance requirement.

Data-analytics platforms (Layer 1) with embedded assessment tools (Layer 2) capture the highest risk-adjusted returns. MSCI, S&P Global, and Bloomberg possess distribution advantages through existing terminal infrastructure and client relationships that purpose-built startups cannot easily replicate.

Advisory firms (Layer 3) capture the largest near-term revenue pool but face the most significant margin pressure as software tools mature and corporate teams build internal expertise. First-mover advisory practices will consolidate over the next three years as the market bifurcates between commodity gap assessments and premium strategic advisory.

Financial product originators (Layer 4) represent the largest long-term value pool but depend on regulatory clarity and market infrastructure that remains under development. Players positioning now through pilot transactions and methodology development will hold structural advantages when mandatory nature targets create compliance-driven demand.

Action Checklist

• Map your organization's position across the five TNFD value layers and identify where competitive advantage concentrates
• Assess data infrastructure requirements for LEAP implementation, prioritizing geospatial capabilities and supply chain traceability
• Evaluate build-versus-buy decisions for nature-risk assessment, considering that integrated platforms command 2-3x the switching costs of point solutions
• Monitor CSRD, UK FCA, and SEC regulatory timelines to anticipate when voluntary TNFD adoption becomes compliance-driven
• Identify partnership opportunities between data providers, advisory firms, and financial product originators to capture cross-layer value
• Develop internal expertise in ecological assessment methods (eDNA, remote sensing, ecosystem service valuation) before talent scarcity drives recruitment costs higher

Sources

• Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. (2023). Recommendations of the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. Geneva: TNFD Secretariat.
• Network for Greening the Financial System. (2025). Nature-related Financial Risks: Conceptual Framework and Forward-Looking Scenarios. Paris: NGFS.
• Banque de France. (2024). Biodiversity and Financial Stability: Assessing Nature-Related Risks in the French Financial System. Paris: BdF.
• World Economic Forum. (2025). Global Risks Report 2025. Geneva: WEF.
• Verdantix. (2025). Market Sizing: Nature-related Data and Analytics for Financial Services. London: Verdantix Ltd.
• Science Based Targets Network. (2023). Corporate Nature Targets: Initial Guidance for Business. Gland: SBTN.
• IAASB. (2024). International Standard on Sustainability Assurance 5000. New York: International Federation of Accountants.