Data story: Key signals in Carbon capture, utilization & storage (CCUS)

Global CCUS capacity reached 49.3 million tonnes of CO2 per year in 2025, a 48% jump from 2024, yet that figure covers less than 0.1% of the 36.8 billion tonnes emitted annually. Six data signals reveal where the sector is heading, which technologies are breaking through, and where capital and policy are converging to reshape the carbon management landscape.

Quick Answer

The CCUS market is accelerating on multiple fronts: global capture capacity pipeline has grown to over 400 projects, direct air capture (DAC) costs have fallen below $400 per tonne at pilot scale, government incentives now exceed $100 billion in committed support worldwide, and CO2 storage hub models are replacing single-source projects. The UK, United States, and Northern Europe are leading deployment, with the Middle East and Asia-Pacific scaling quickly. Companies and investors should track capture cost curves, storage permitting velocity, and offtake contract structures as the clearest leading indicators of market maturation.

Signal 1: Capture Capacity Pipeline Surging

The Data:

• 2020: 26 large-scale CCUS facilities operating globally
• 2024: 44 facilities operating, 400+ in development pipeline
• 2025: 49.3 Mtpa operational capacity, pipeline exceeding 300 Mtpa
• Growth: 85% increase in operating facilities since 2020

What It Means:

The CCUS project pipeline has moved from a handful of government-backed demonstrations to a commercially driven buildout. The Global CCS Institute's 2024 status report counted over 400 projects across 40 countries, a sharp expansion from the roughly 80 projects tracked in 2020. This growth reflects both regulatory mandates and improved unit economics at scale.

The distribution of projects reveals sector priorities:

• Power and industrial: 55% of pipeline capacity targets cement, steel, and hydrogen production
• Natural gas processing: 20% focused on LNG and gas-fired power
• Direct air capture: 15% of projects, rapidly growing from near zero in 2020
• Bioenergy with CCS (BECCS): 10% of pipeline, concentrated in Northern Europe

The Next Signal:

Watch final investment decision (FID) conversion rates. Currently fewer than 20% of announced projects have reached FID. A jump above 30% would signal genuine commercial viability beyond subsidy dependence.

Signal 2: Capture Costs Declining Across Pathways

The Data:

• Post-combustion capture: $50-70 per tonne for concentrated streams (cement, steel); $80-120 for dilute streams (gas power)
• Pre-combustion (blue hydrogen): $15-25 per tonne of CO2 avoided
• Direct air capture: $250-600 per tonne at operating facilities; $400 benchmark at Climeworks and Carbon Engineering pilot scale
• Cost reduction trajectory: 15-20% learning rate per doubling of cumulative capacity

What It Means:

CCUS costs vary dramatically by application. High-purity CO2 streams from ethanol production and natural gas processing remain the cheapest at $15-35 per tonne, which is why these sectors dominate current operating capacity. The critical cost frontier is industrial point-source capture at $50-70 per tonne, now approaching competitiveness with carbon pricing in the EU ETS (trading at EUR 55-70 in 2025) and with 45Q tax credits in the United States at $85 per tonne.

DAC remains the most expensive pathway but is on the steepest learning curve. Climeworks' Mammoth plant in Iceland, operational since 2024, targets 36,000 tonnes per year at costs below $400 per tonne. The US Department of Energy's DAC Hubs program has committed $3.5 billion to bring costs below $100 per tonne by 2035.

Cost Sensitivity Drivers:

• Energy input: 60-70% of DAC operating cost is energy
• Sorbent or solvent lifespan: Longer-lasting materials reduce replacement costs by 20-40%
• Scale: Moving from 1,000 to 100,000 tonne facilities reduces unit costs 30-50%
• Heat integration: Co-locating with waste heat sources cuts energy costs 25-35%

The Next Signal:

DAC costs falling below $300 per tonne at commercial scale would unlock compliance-grade carbon removal markets and trigger a wave of corporate offtake agreements.

Signal 3: Government Incentives Exceeding $100 Billion Globally

The Data:

• United States (45Q): $85 per tonne for geological storage, $180 per tonne for DAC; estimated $30-40 billion in committed tax credits through 2032
• European Union Innovation Fund: EUR 40 billion through 2030 for industrial decarbonization including CCUS
• UK CCUS Programme: GBP 20 billion in transport and storage infrastructure funding
• Canada (CCUS Investment Tax Credit): 50-60% of capital costs refundable
• Total committed: Over $100 billion in direct incentives across OECD nations

What It Means:

CCUS has become one of the most heavily incentivized decarbonization pathways globally. The US Inflation Reduction Act's enhanced 45Q credit of $85 per tonne for storage and $60 per tonne for utilization has fundamentally changed project economics. Before IRA, fewer than 5 US CCUS projects were in active development; the pipeline now exceeds 120 projects.

The UK's track-1 and track-2 cluster approach is creating integrated hubs in HyNet (northwest England) and the East Coast Cluster, each combining industrial capture with shared CO2 transport and storage infrastructure. This hub model reduces per-project capital costs by 30-40% compared to standalone facilities.

Policy Maturity by Region:

• United States: Tax credit driven, technology-neutral, strong private sector uptake
• European Union: Emissions trading + innovation funding, emphasis on hard-to-abate sectors
• United Kingdom: Contracts-for-difference model providing revenue certainty for 15+ years
• Middle East: Integration with hydrocarbon value chains, focusing on blue hydrogen and enhanced oil recovery
• Asia-Pacific: Japan and South Korea advancing CCS regulation; China piloting at 10+ Mtpa scale

The Next Signal:

Developing economy CCUS incentive programs. As G7 nations build domestic CCUS capacity, expect carbon border adjustment mechanisms to drive CCS adoption in export-oriented economies.

Signal 4: CO2 Storage Hub Infrastructure Scaling

The Data:

• Permitted storage capacity: 1.5 gigatonnes per year globally (geological storage sites with permits or active applications)
• Operating storage sites: 25+ dedicated geological storage sites worldwide
• Hub projects: 20+ multi-user transport and storage networks in development
• Storage cost: $10-25 per tonne for well-characterized saline formations; $5-15 for depleted oil and gas reservoirs

What It Means:

The transition from single-source, single-sink projects to shared infrastructure hubs is the defining structural shift in CCUS deployment. Hub models allow multiple industrial emitters to share pipeline and storage costs, bringing per-tonne transport and storage costs below $25 in most configurations.

The Northern Lights project in Norway, a joint venture between Equinor, Shell, and TotalEnergies, is the first open-access CO2 transport and storage facility. Phase 1 (1.5 Mtpa, operational 2024) is receiving CO2 from the Heidelberg Materials cement plant in Brevik. Phase 2 will expand capacity to 5 Mtpa and accept CO2 from emitters across Europe via ship transport.

Storage Characterization Progress:

• North Sea basin: Over 200 years of storage capacity identified at current emission rates
• US Gulf Coast: Extensive saline formation mapping supporting 50+ project proposals
• Australian offshore: Gorgon CCS (4 Mtpa design capacity) providing operational data
• Middle East: Abu Dhabi's Al Reyadah facility storing 800,000 tonnes per year from steel production

The Next Signal:

Cross-border CO2 transport regulation. The London Protocol amendment enabling transboundary CO2 movement entered into force in 2024, unlocking European cross-border shipping routes. Watch for bilateral agreements that accelerate hub utilization rates.

Signal 5: Corporate Offtake Agreements Emerging

The Data:

• Advance purchase commitments: Over $2 billion in forward contracts for carbon removal (including DAC)
• Frontier fund: $1 billion committed by Stripe, Alphabet, Meta, Shopify, and McKinsey for permanent removal
• Average contract price: $200-600 per tonne for DAC removal credits
• Contract duration: 5-10 year offtake agreements becoming standard

What It Means:

Corporate demand for high-quality carbon removal is creating a new market structure distinct from traditional voluntary carbon offsets. Companies are signing advance market commitments (AMCs) that guarantee revenue for CCUS projects, de-risking investment and enabling financing.

Frontier, the advance market commitment launched by Stripe in 2022, has contracted over $200 million in purchases from DAC and other permanent removal providers. Microsoft's $200 million commitment to Heirloom Carbon Technologies for DAC credits signals enterprise willingness to pay premium prices for verified, permanent removal.

Buyer Motivations:

• Net-zero commitments: 40% of buyers cite residual emissions neutralization
• Regulatory hedge: 30% anticipate future compliance demand for removals
• Brand and stakeholder pressure: 20% driven by consumer and investor expectations
• Carbon insetting: 10% integrating removal into product carbon footprints

The Next Signal:

Standardized removal credit registries. Puro.earth and other registries are developing methodologies specifically for engineered removal, creating fungible credits that will increase liquidity and reduce transaction costs.

Signal 6: Utilization Pathways Diversifying

The Data:

• Enhanced oil recovery (EOR): 75% of current CO2 utilization, declining share
• Building materials (CO2 mineralization): 15 Mtpa potential by 2030, led by CarbonCure and Solidia
• Synthetic fuels (e-fuels): Pilot plants producing SAF and e-methanol at $3-5 per litre
• Chemicals and polymers: CO2-derived polycarbonates and methanol at demonstration scale

What It Means:

The utilization side of CCUS is diversifying beyond EOR toward pathways that permanently sequester CO2 in products. CO2 mineralization in concrete is the most commercially advanced non-EOR pathway, with CarbonCure's technology deployed at over 750 concrete plants globally. Each tonne of CO2 mineralized into concrete is permanently stored for the lifetime of the structure.

Synthetic fuels remain cost-prohibitive for most applications but are advancing rapidly in aviation, where alternatives are limited. The EU's ReFuelEU Aviation mandate requires 1.2% synthetic fuel blending by 2030, creating guaranteed demand.

The Next Signal:

CO2 utilization credits receiving storage-equivalent regulatory treatment. Currently most carbon accounting frameworks distinguish between permanent storage and utilization. Mineralization in building materials is likely the first utilization pathway to receive permanent sequestration status.

Implications for Strategy

For Companies

Near-term (2025-2026):

• Assess point-source capture feasibility for high-purity CO2 streams
• Evaluate proximity to CO2 transport and storage hub infrastructure
• Model economics using available incentives (45Q, UK CfD, EU Innovation Fund)

Medium-term (2027-2030):

• Integrate CCUS into net-zero transition plans for hard-to-abate operations
• Secure CO2 storage capacity through long-term agreements
• Invest in capture technology upgrades as next-generation sorbents reduce costs

For Investors

Due Diligence Signals:

• Does the project have secured storage with adequate characterization data?
• Is revenue dependent on a single incentive mechanism or diversified across credits, offtakes, and product sales?
• What is the technology readiness level, and does the team have operating experience at scale?
• Are transport and storage costs locked in through hub agreements?

For Solution Providers

Growth Opportunities:

• Modular capture systems for mid-size emitters (10,000-100,000 tpa)
• CO2 transport logistics and pipeline infrastructure
• Monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) for stored CO2
• Next-generation sorbents and membranes with lower energy penalties

Key Players

Established Leaders

• Equinor: Operator of Northern Lights, Europe's first open-access CO2 transport and storage facility. Leading North Sea storage development with 1.5 Mtpa Phase 1 capacity.
• ExxonMobil: Largest point-source capture operator globally. Plans to capture 50 Mtpa by 2030 through its Low Carbon Solutions division.
• Shell: Partner in Northern Lights and operator of Quest CCS in Alberta (1.2 Mtpa since 2015). Developing multiple hub projects.
• Schlumberger (SLB): Providing subsurface characterization, well engineering, and monitoring solutions for CO2 storage sites worldwide.

Emerging Startups

• Climeworks: World's largest DAC plant (Mammoth, 36,000 tpa in Iceland). Targeting 1 Mtpa by 2030 with next-generation solid sorbent technology.
• Heirloom Carbon Technologies: DAC using enhanced mineral weathering with limestone. Secured $200 million offtake from Microsoft.
• CarbonCure Technologies: CO2 mineralization in concrete deployed at 750+ plants. Permanently sequesters CO2 in building materials.
• Carbon Clean: Modular, rotating packed bed capture technology targeting $30 per tonne for industrial applications. Operating in India and Europe.

Key Investors and Funders

• US Department of Energy: $12 billion committed through IRA for CCUS including $3.5 billion for DAC Hubs program.
• Breakthrough Energy Ventures: Bill Gates-backed fund investing in Climeworks, CarbonCure, and other CCUS technologies.
• UK Infrastructure Bank: Co-investing in HyNet and East Coast Cluster transport and storage infrastructure.

FAQ

How much CO2 can CCUS realistically capture by 2030? The IEA's Net Zero Scenario requires 1.2 gigatonnes per year of CCUS by 2030. Current trajectory suggests 150-300 Mtpa is achievable based on projects at FID or under construction, leaving a significant gap that requires accelerated deployment.

Is CCUS just a way to extend fossil fuel use? While early projects focused on enhanced oil recovery, the majority of new pipeline capacity targets hard-to-abate industrial emissions (cement, steel, chemicals) and DAC. The climate case for CCUS is strongest where electrification and fuel switching cannot eliminate emissions, such as process emissions from cement production.

What happens if stored CO2 leaks? Well-selected geological storage sites have extremely low leakage risk. The IPCC estimates that properly sited formations will retain over 99% of stored CO2 for 1,000+ years. Monitoring requirements, including seismic surveys, wellbore integrity testing, and surface detection, are mandated in all major regulatory frameworks.

How does 45Q compare to carbon pricing for CCUS economics? The US 45Q credit of $85 per tonne for storage provides stronger project economics than current EU ETS prices (EUR 55-70) for most industrial applications. However, 45Q is a time-limited incentive, while carbon prices are expected to rise, making EU and UK projects potentially more attractive over 20-year project lifetimes.

Sources

1. Global CCS Institute. "Global Status of CCS 2024." GCCSI, 2024.
2. International Energy Agency. "CCUS in Clean Energy Transitions." IEA, 2024.
3. US Department of Energy. "Carbon Negative Shot: DAC Hubs Program." DOE, 2024.
4. Equinor. "Northern Lights Project Update and Operational Data." Equinor, 2025.
5. BloombergNEF. "CCUS Market Outlook 2025." BNEF, 2025.
6. European Commission. "EU Innovation Fund: Large-Scale CCUS Projects." EC, 2024.
7. Climeworks. "Mammoth Plant Operational Performance Report." Climeworks, 2025.