Trend analysis: Carbon capture, utilization & storage (CCUS) — where the value pools are (and who captures them)

Global CCUS capacity reached approximately 50 million tonnes of CO2 per year by early 2026, yet the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario requires over 1.2 gigatonnes annually by 2050. That gap represents one of the largest capital deployment opportunities in climate technology, with cumulative investment needs estimated at $655 billion through 2035. Understanding where the value pools concentrate across the CCUS chain, and which players are positioned to capture them, is essential for investors, developers, and policymakers navigating this rapidly evolving landscape.

Why It Matters

Carbon capture is no longer a fringe technology confined to enhanced oil recovery. The US Inflation Reduction Act's enhanced 45Q tax credits ($85 per tonne for geological storage, $60 per tonne for utilization), combined with the EU's Net-Zero Industry Act targets and emerging carbon pricing regimes across Asia, have created a policy environment where CCUS projects can achieve commercial returns at scale. The Global CCS Institute reports that over 390 CCUS projects are in various stages of development worldwide, up from 196 in 2022. For heavy industry sectors like cement, steel, and chemicals, where electrification alone cannot achieve full decarbonization, CCUS represents one of the few technically viable abatement pathways. The economic question has shifted from "does CCUS work" to "where in the value chain do returns concentrate, and how do different business models capture them."

Key Concepts

Point-source capture involves separating CO2 from the flue gas or process emissions of industrial facilities. Technologies include post-combustion capture using amine solvents, pre-combustion capture in gasification processes, and oxyfuel combustion. Costs vary widely by application, ranging from $15-25 per tonne for high-purity industrial sources (ethanol, natural gas processing) to $60-120 per tonne for dilute sources (cement kilns, power plants).

Direct air capture (DAC) removes CO2 directly from ambient air at concentrations of roughly 420 parts per million. Current costs range from $400-600 per tonne, though leading developers target $100-200 per tonne at scale. DAC's value proposition rests on its ability to generate high-permanence carbon removal credits independent of emission source location.

CO2 transport and storage encompasses the midstream infrastructure needed to move captured CO2 from source to permanent geological storage. This includes pipeline networks, shipping, and injection into saline aquifers or depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Transport and storage represents the infrastructure backbone of the CCUS industry.

CO2 utilization converts captured carbon into commercial products including building materials, chemicals, synthetic fuels, and enhanced concrete. While utilization markets are smaller than storage opportunities, they offer revenue diversification and, in some cases, faster paths to positive unit economics.

KPI	Current Benchmark	Leading Practice	Laggard Threshold
Capture cost per tonne CO2 (industrial)	$50-90	$30-50	>$120
Capture rate (% of facility emissions)	85-90%	>95%	<70%
CO2 transport cost per tonne per 100 km	$3-7 (pipeline)	$2-4 (shared infrastructure)	>$12
Storage capacity utilization rate	60-75%	>85%	<40%
Project development timeline (FID to operation)	4-6 years	3-4 years	>8 years
Levelized cost of CO2 avoided	$60-100	$40-60	>$150

What's Working

Hub-and-cluster models in Northern Europe. Norway's Northern Lights project, backed by Equinor, Shell, and TotalEnergies, has pioneered the open-access CO2 transport and storage model. By providing shared subsea pipeline and storage infrastructure accessible to multiple industrial emitters, Northern Lights reduces per-tonne costs through economies of scale and de-risks individual capture projects that no longer need to develop their own storage. The project began commercial operations in 2025, receiving CO2 from Heidelberg Materials' cement plant in Brevik, Norway. This hub model is being replicated in the UK's East Coast Cluster, the Port of Rotterdam's Porthos project, and Denmark's Greensand initiative.

Tax credit-driven US project acceleration. The 45Q enhancement under the IRA transformed the US CCUS pipeline. Projects capturing CO2 for geological storage receive $85 per tonne, creating positive economics for many industrial applications. The Gulf Coast has emerged as a global CCUS epicenter, with over 30 projects in development across Texas and Louisiana leveraging existing pipeline infrastructure, geological storage capacity, and regulatory frameworks. Summit Carbon Solutions' 2,000-mile pipeline network connecting Midwest ethanol plants to North Dakota storage sites demonstrates how policy incentives drive infrastructure-scale investment.

Industrial CCUS at high-purity sources. Capture from ethanol fermentation, natural gas processing, and hydrogen production achieves costs as low as $15-30 per tonne because CO2 is emitted at high concentrations requiring minimal separation energy. These low-hanging-fruit applications are scaling fastest. Archer Daniels Midland's Illinois Basin project has stored over 3.5 million tonnes of CO2 from ethanol production since 2017, demonstrating long-term operational reliability and storage integrity at costs well below the 45Q credit value.

What's Not Working

Permitting bottlenecks for CO2 pipelines and Class VI wells. In the US, the EPA's backlog for Class VI injection well permits has delayed dozens of projects. As of early 2026, only a handful of permits have been issued despite hundreds of applications. State primacy (transferring permitting authority from EPA to state regulators) has progressed slowly, with only Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming having received full authority. Pipeline permitting faces similar challenges: Summit Carbon Solutions' proposed pipeline encountered opposition across multiple states, requiring route modifications and extended regulatory timelines.

Cost overruns at power sector capture projects. Large-scale post-combustion capture on coal and gas power plants has struggled with cost discipline. The Boundary Dam project in Saskatchewan and Petra Nova in Texas both experienced higher-than-projected costs and operational reliability issues. Petra Nova suspended operations in 2020 due to low oil prices undermining the enhanced oil recovery business case, though it restarted in 2024 under new ownership. These experiences have made investors cautious about power sector CCUS, shifting attention toward industrial applications with more favorable economics.

DAC cost reduction pace falling short of projections. Despite significant venture investment, DAC cost reductions have been slower than technology roadmaps predicted. Climeworks' Mammoth plant in Iceland (36,000 tonnes per year capacity) represents the largest operational DAC facility, but its costs remain above $400 per tonne. The US Department of Energy's DAC Hub program has allocated $3.5 billion for regional hubs targeting 1 million tonnes per year each, but commercial operations are not expected before 2028-2030. The gap between current costs and the $100-150 per tonne needed for broad commercial viability remains substantial.

Key Players

Established Leaders

• ExxonMobil: Largest private-sector capturer of CO2 globally, with over 9 million tonnes per year of existing capacity. Investing $17 billion through 2027 in its Low Carbon Solutions business, including the Houston CCS hub.
• Equinor: Operator of the Sleipner and Snohvit storage projects (25+ years of operational history) and lead partner in Northern Lights, the world's first open-access CO2 transport and storage infrastructure.
• Shell: Active across the CCUS value chain, from the Quest project in Alberta (capturing over 7 million tonnes since 2015) to investments in DAC through partnerships with Carbon Engineering (now 1PointFive).
• Linde: Major industrial gas company providing capture technology and CO2 processing equipment across dozens of facilities globally.

Emerging Startups

• Climeworks: Leading solid sorbent DAC developer, operating the world's largest DAC plant (Mammoth) in Iceland and developing multi-megatonne capacity.
• CarbonCapture Inc.: Developing modular DAC systems using solid sorbent technology at its Project Bison site in Wyoming, targeting 5 million tonnes per year by 2030.
• Svante Technologies: Commercializing rapid-cycle temperature swing adsorption technology for industrial point-source capture at cement and hydrogen facilities.
• CarbonCure Technologies: Injects captured CO2 into fresh concrete during mixing, permanently mineralizing the carbon while improving concrete strength. Operating in over 700 concrete plants.

Key Investors and Funders

• US Department of Energy: Deploying over $12 billion in CCUS funding through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, including $3.5 billion for DAC hubs and $2.5 billion for CO2 transport infrastructure.
• Breakthrough Energy Ventures: Invested in multiple CCUS startups including CarbonCapture Inc. and Carbon Engineering, providing growth-stage capital for technology scale-up.
• Occidental Petroleum (1PointFive): Developing the Stratos DAC hub in the Permian Basin, the world's largest DAC facility at 500,000 tonnes per year, backed by carbon removal purchase agreements with major corporate buyers.

Where the Value Pools Are

CO2 transport and storage infrastructure. Midstream infrastructure commands the most defensible value pool in CCUS. Pipelines and storage sites require decades-long permits, geological characterization, and massive upfront capital, creating natural monopoly dynamics. Once built, these assets generate toll-based revenue with long-term contracted volumes. The Northern Lights model demonstrates how infrastructure operators can capture predictable returns while remaining technology-agnostic on the capture side. Companies controlling storage pore space with proximity to industrial clusters hold strategic positioning.

Capture technology for hard-to-abate sectors. Cement, steel, and chemicals account for roughly 25% of global CO2 emissions and have limited decarbonization alternatives. Technology providers that deliver reliable, cost-effective capture solutions tailored to these industries' specific flue gas compositions and operating conditions will capture recurring equipment and licensing revenue. The market for industrial CCUS equipment is projected to exceed $15 billion annually by 2030.

Carbon removal credits from DAC and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS). High-permanence carbon removal credits trade at $200-600 per tonne in the voluntary market, a significant premium over nature-based offsets. Microsoft, Stripe, JPMorgan, and other corporate buyers have signed advance purchase agreements totaling billions of dollars. The firms that achieve DAC cost reductions fastest will capture the margin between declining production costs and sustained premium pricing for durable removal credits.

CO2 utilization in building materials. Mineralization of CO2 into concrete and aggregates represents a utilization pathway with massive addressable market potential. The global concrete market exceeds 14 billion cubic metres annually. Companies like CarbonCure and Solidia Technologies are demonstrating that CO2-injected concrete can achieve performance parity or superiority while creating a permanent carbon sink. Building code acceptance and green procurement mandates are expanding the addressable market.

Action Checklist

• Map your facility or portfolio emissions against capture cost curves to identify economically viable CCUS opportunities under current policy incentives
• Evaluate proximity to existing or planned CO2 transport and storage infrastructure, prioritizing locations within hub-and-cluster networks
• Assess eligibility for 45Q tax credits (US), EU Innovation Fund grants, or equivalent national incentive programs
• Engage with CO2 storage operators early to secure capacity reservations, as premium storage sites face growing competition
• For hard-to-abate industrial facilities, commission front-end engineering and design (FEED) studies for capture integration
• Establish internal carbon pricing at or above $80 per tonne to align investment decisions with future regulatory trajectories
• Monitor Class VI permitting developments and state primacy approvals that may accelerate project timelines

FAQ

What is the realistic cost trajectory for CCUS over the next decade? Industrial point-source capture costs are expected to decline 20-30% by 2035 through technology improvements, manufacturing scale, and learning-by-doing. High-purity sources already achieve costs below $30 per tonne. Dilute sources like cement and power generation are targeting $40-60 per tonne by 2030. DAC costs are projected to fall to $150-250 per tonne by 2035, though this depends heavily on energy costs and sorbent manufacturing scale-up.

How does CCUS compete with other decarbonization options? CCUS is not an either-or choice with electrification or renewables. It occupies a specific niche: sectors where process emissions (not energy emissions) dominate, and where direct electrification is technically impractical. Cement production releases CO2 from limestone calcination regardless of energy source. Steel blast furnaces and chemical feedstock processes face similar constraints. CCUS complements, rather than competes with, the broader clean energy transition.

What are the risks of CO2 storage leakage? Geological storage in well-characterized formations has demonstrated extremely low leakage risk. The Sleipner project in Norway has stored over 20 million tonnes of CO2 since 1996 with no detected leakage. Monitoring technologies including seismic surveys, pressure sensors, and satellite-based surface deformation measurement provide continuous integrity verification. Regulatory frameworks require operators to demonstrate containment for 50-100 years with financial assurance provisions.

Who is buying carbon removal credits from CCUS projects? Major corporate buyers include Microsoft (contracted over 5.3 million tonnes of removal), Stripe Climate, JPMorgan Chase, and Frontier (a consortium including Alphabet, Meta, Shopify, and McKinsey). These advance purchase agreements provide revenue certainty for DAC and BECCS developers, enabling project financing. The compliance market is also emerging, with the EU considering inclusion of engineered removals in its emissions trading system.

Sources

1. Global CCS Institute. "Global Status of CCS 2025." GCCSI, 2025.
2. International Energy Agency. "CCUS in Clean Energy Transitions." IEA, 2025.
3. US Department of Energy. "Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage: Program Overview." DOE Office of Fossil Energy, 2025.
4. Northern Lights JV. "Northern Lights Project: Commercial Operations Update." Equinor, 2025.
5. Congressional Research Service. "The 45Q Tax Credit for Carbon Oxide Sequestration." CRS Reports, 2025.
6. BloombergNEF. "CCUS Market Outlook 2025." BNEF, 2025.
7. Climeworks. "Mammoth Plant: Operational Performance and Cost Trajectory." Climeworks AG, 2025.