Data story: Key signals in Freight & logistics decarbonization

Freight transport generates roughly 8% of global CO₂ emissions, and the sector's carbon footprint grew 25% between 2010 and 2024 even as other industries plateaued or declined. Five quantitative signals now reveal where freight and logistics decarbonization is heading, which technologies are gaining traction, and where policy is forcing the pace of change across road, rail, maritime, and aviation corridors.

Quick Answer

The freight and logistics decarbonization landscape is shifting from pilot programs to commercial deployment. Zero-emission truck registrations in the EU surged 180% year over year in 2025, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity tripled between 2023 and 2025, and the EU Emissions Trading System expanded to cover maritime shipping from January 2024. Companies investing in fleet electrification, alternative fuels infrastructure, and digital route optimization are building competitive positions ahead of tightening carbon pricing and customer Scope 3 requirements.

Signal 1: Zero-Emission Truck Registrations Surging in Europe

The Data:

• 2022: 1,900 battery-electric and hydrogen trucks registered across the EU
• 2024: 12,400 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles registered in the EU
• 2025 (projected): 22,000+ registrations, a 180% compound increase since 2022
• Market share: Zero-emission trucks reached 3.8% of new heavy-duty registrations in the EU in 2025, up from 0.5% in 2022

What It Means:

Europe's CO₂ standards for heavy-duty vehicles, finalized in February 2024, require a 45% reduction in average fleet emissions by 2030 and 90% by 2040 relative to 2019 baselines. These binding targets are pushing manufacturers and fleet operators to accelerate zero-emission deployments well ahead of the compliance deadlines. Battery-electric trucks now demonstrate total cost of ownership parity with diesel on urban and regional routes under 300 km when charging infrastructure is available.

Daimler Truck delivered over 5,000 eActros units across the EU by end of 2025, with fleet customers including DB Schenker and DHL reporting 35% lower per-kilometer operating costs on urban distribution routes compared to equivalent diesel vehicles. Volvo Trucks reached cumulative sales of 3,800 electric heavy-duty vehicles globally, with the majority deployed in Scandinavian and Benelux markets where grid electricity is already low-carbon.

The Next Signal:

Watch for megawatt charging system (MCS) rollouts across the TEN-T corridor network. The EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) mandates MCS deployment every 200 km on core network roads by 2028. These 1 MW+ charging stations will extend electric truck range to 500 km per charge, removing the primary barrier to long-haul electrification.

Signal 2: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production Scaling Rapidly

The Data:

• Global SAF production (2023): 600 million liters
• Global SAF production (2025): 1.9 billion liters (estimated)
• EU ReFuelEU mandate: 2% SAF blend by 2025, 6% by 2030, 70% by 2050
• Price premium: SAF costs 2.5 to 4x conventional jet fuel (down from 5 to 8x in 2020)

What It Means:

Air freight accounts for less than 1% of global freight tonnage but roughly 6% of freight-related emissions due to the high carbon intensity of aviation fuel. SAF produced from waste oils, agricultural residues, and power-to-liquid pathways is the primary near-term lever for reducing air freight emissions, as full electrification of cargo aircraft remains decades away for long-haul operations.

Neste expanded its SAF production capacity at its Rotterdam and Singapore refineries to 1.5 million tonnes per year by 2025, making it the single largest producer globally. TotalEnergies commissioned its Grandpuits biorefinery near Paris in late 2024, adding 285,000 tonnes of annual SAF capacity sourced from used cooking oils and animal fats. These capacity additions are critical because the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which entered force in January 2024, creates legally binding blending mandates at all EU airports.

The Next Signal:

Power-to-liquid (PtL) e-fuels are the next frontier. ReFuelEU requires a specific 1.2% synthetic fuel sub-mandate from 2030, growing to 35% by 2050. PtL production costs currently sit at EUR 3,000 to 5,000 per tonne, but electrolyzer cost reductions and dedicated renewable energy supply could bring this below EUR 1,500 per tonne by 2032.

Signal 3: Maritime Shipping Enters Carbon Pricing

The Data:

• EU ETS maritime coverage: 100% of intra-EU voyages, 50% of extra-EU voyages (from January 2024)
• Carbon cost impact: EUR 50 to 90 per tonne CO₂, adding EUR 10 to 50 per container on Asia-Europe routes
• FuelEU Maritime targets: 2% greenhouse gas intensity reduction by 2025, 80% by 2050
• IMO ambition: Net-zero by or around 2050 (revised strategy adopted July 2023)

What It Means:

Maritime freight carries approximately 80% of global trade by volume and accounts for nearly 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS represents the first major carbon pricing mechanism applied to international maritime transport. Shipping companies now face direct carbon costs that increase annually as the phase-in reaches full scope by 2026.

Maersk committed USD 1.8 billion to 19 methanol-capable container vessels, with the first, the Laura Maersk, entering service in 2024. CMA CGM ordered 24 LNG-powered vessels while investing EUR 1.5 billion in biomethane and e-methane supply chains to ensure these vessels can transition to zero-carbon fuels. MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company initiated trials of wind-assisted propulsion on two Panamax vessels, achieving 8 to 12% fuel savings on transatlantic routes.

The Next Signal:

The IMO is expected to finalize a global maritime carbon levy by late 2025 or 2026, with proposed rates of USD 100 to 150 per tonne CO₂. This would generate USD 60 to 80 billion annually for developing-country maritime decarbonization and create a universal price signal beyond EU waters.

Signal 4: Digital Freight Optimization Delivering Measurable Reductions

The Data:

• Empty running rate: 25% of truck-kilometers in the EU are driven empty (Eurostat, 2024)
• Digital freight matching: Reduces empty miles by 15 to 30% on participating corridors
• AI route optimization: Delivers 8 to 15% fuel savings per fleet
• Market growth: Digital freight brokerage market reached USD 12.5 billion globally in 2025

What It Means:

Before a single truck is electrified or a ship switches fuel, software can extract significant emissions reductions from operational inefficiency. One quarter of all truck movements in the EU travel with no cargo. Digital freight platforms that match loads to available capacity, optimize multi-stop routing, and consolidate shipments across carriers are achieving carbon reductions at negative or near-zero abatement cost.

Sennder, the Berlin-based digital freight forwarder, processed over 300,000 shipments across 30 European countries in 2025, using machine learning algorithms to reduce empty running on its network by 22%. Flexport deployed its carbon dashboard across all customer accounts, enabling shippers to compare emissions intensity across transport modes and carriers, with early data showing customers shifting 8% of air freight volume to ocean or rail when presented with real-time carbon cost comparisons.

The Next Signal:

EU policy is catching up to technology capability. The European Commission's proposed revision of the Combined Transport Directive aims to standardize digital freight documentation and intermodal data exchange, removing paperwork barriers that currently prevent seamless truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge transfers.

Signal 5: Rail Freight Modal Shift Gaining Political Momentum

The Data:

• Current EU rail freight modal share: 17.4% (2024), down from 19% in 2011
• EU 2030 target: 30% of road freight over 300 km shifted to rail or waterways
• Carbon intensity comparison: Rail freight emits 15 to 25 g CO₂ per tonne-km versus 60 to 100 g CO₂ per tonne-km for road
• EU rail freight investment: EUR 26 billion allocated under the TEN-T revised regulation (2024 to 2030)

What It Means:

Despite being 4 to 5 times less carbon-intensive than road transport, rail freight has been losing modal share in the EU for over a decade due to cross-border interoperability barriers, unreliable journey times, and insufficient investment in terminals and last-mile connections. The revised TEN-T Regulation, adopted in 2024, introduces binding requirements for rail freight corridors including minimum line speeds, train lengths of 740 meters, and 22.5-tonne axle loads across the core network by 2030.

DB Cargo, the freight division of Deutsche Bahn, invested EUR 550 million in digital automatic coupling technology and new intermodal terminals, targeting a 25% increase in cross-border rail freight volumes by 2027. Rail Baltica, the EUR 5.8 billion greenfield rail project connecting Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to the European standard-gauge network, will open dedicated freight capacity on the Baltic corridor by 2030, enabling rail competition with road on routes previously without viable rail alternatives.

The Next Signal:

Watch for the EU's proposed Greening Freight Package to mandate emissions reporting per shipment. When shippers must disclose transport emissions by mode, the 4 to 5x carbon advantage of rail becomes a procurement criterion, potentially accelerating modal shift faster than infrastructure investment alone.

KPI Benchmarks by Segment

Metric	Road Freight	Maritime	Aviation	Rail
CO₂ intensity (g/tonne-km)	60 to 100	8 to 15	500 to 700	15 to 25
Zero-emission fleet share (2025)	3.8% (EU new registrations)	<0.1%	<0.1% (SAF blended)	60% electric traction (EU)
Carbon price exposure (EUR/tonne CO₂)	Indirect (fuel taxes)	50 to 90 (EU ETS)	50 to 90 (EU ETS from 2025)	Minimal
Abatement cost (EUR/tonne CO₂)	50 to 200 (BEV)	100 to 300 (green methanol)	200 to 500 (SAF)	Negative to 50 (modal shift)
Digital optimization savings	8 to 15% fuel reduction	5 to 10% voyage optimization	3 to 5% load factor improvement	10 to 20% capacity utilization

Implications for Strategy

For Policymakers

Near-term (2025 to 2026):

• Accelerate AFIR implementation for MCS charging network deployment
• Finalize Greening Freight Package with mandatory per-shipment emissions reporting
• Ensure FuelEU Maritime enforcement mechanisms are operational

Medium-term (2027 to 2030):

• Align national infrastructure investment with TEN-T rail freight corridor requirements
• Scale SAF production incentives to close the price gap with fossil jet fuel
• Harmonize carbon pricing across transport modes to remove distortions

For Companies

Fleet operators: Conduct total cost of ownership analysis for zero-emission vehicles on routes under 300 km. Early movers are locking in electricity supply contracts at rates 30 to 50% below equivalent diesel energy costs.

Shippers: Request per-shipment emissions data from logistics providers. Companies with Scope 3 reduction targets can achieve 15 to 40% transport emissions cuts through carrier selection and modal shift alone.

Logistics providers: Invest in digital freight matching and route optimization as no-regrets measures that reduce costs and emissions simultaneously.

For Investors

Due Diligence Signals:

• What percentage of fleet capex is allocated to zero-emission vehicles?
• Does the company have SAF offtake agreements or green fuel supply contracts?
• Is per-shipment emissions tracking integrated into customer-facing systems?
• How exposed is the portfolio to tightening EU ETS and CBAM transport costs?

Key Players

Established Leaders

• Maersk - Invested USD 1.8 billion in methanol-capable vessels, operating the world's first green methanol container ship. Committed to net-zero fleet operations by 2040.
• Daimler Truck - Leading electric heavy-duty truck manufacturer with the eActros series. Delivered 5,000+ battery-electric trucks in Europe by 2025.
• DB Cargo - Europe's largest rail freight operator investing EUR 550 million in digital coupling and intermodal infrastructure to increase cross-border volumes.
• Neste - Global leader in renewable fuels with 1.5 million tonnes annual SAF production capacity across Rotterdam and Singapore refineries.

Emerging Startups

• Sennder - Berlin-based digital freight forwarder processing 300,000+ annual shipments with ML-driven empty mile reduction across 30 European markets.
• Einride - Swedish autonomous electric freight company operating driverless pods on public roads in Sweden and the US, targeting 90% emissions reduction per shipment.
• Flexport - Digital freight forwarder providing real-time carbon dashboards enabling shipper modal shift decisions based on emissions and cost tradeoffs.
• HHLA Next - Hamburg Port Authority's innovation arm deploying automated container handling and hydrogen-powered terminal equipment.

Key Investors and Funders

• European Investment Bank - Committed EUR 8.2 billion to sustainable transport infrastructure including rail freight corridors and charging networks between 2023 and 2025.
• Breakthrough Energy Ventures - Backed multiple freight decarbonization startups including Einride and CarbonCure Technologies.
• European Commission Connecting Europe Facility - EUR 26 billion allocated for TEN-T transport network upgrades with freight decarbonization as a priority criterion.

FAQ

How quickly can road freight realistically decarbonize in the EU? Battery-electric trucks are commercially viable today for urban and regional routes under 300 km, which account for roughly 45% of road freight activity by vehicle-kilometers. Long-haul electrification depends on MCS charging infrastructure mandated under AFIR by 2028. Full fleet turnover takes 10 to 15 years, so vehicles purchased today will operate until 2035 to 2040. Reaching 90% zero-emission new sales by 2040 (the EU target) would decarbonize the majority of road freight by 2050.

What is the cost of maritime decarbonization per container? Under current EU ETS carbon prices of EUR 50 to 90 per tonne CO₂, the additional cost per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) on major Asia-Europe routes ranges from EUR 10 to 50. Switching to green methanol or ammonia adds approximately EUR 100 to 300 per TEU at current fuel price premiums, though costs are expected to decline 30 to 50% by 2030 as production scales.

Is rail freight a realistic alternative to road in the EU? For distances over 300 km and for containerized or bulk cargo, rail is both cost-competitive and significantly lower-carbon. The primary barriers are cross-border interoperability, terminal access, and last-mile connections. TEN-T investments of EUR 26 billion through 2030 target these specific bottlenecks. Countries like Austria and Switzerland already achieve 30%+ rail freight modal shares, demonstrating feasibility.

How do digital platforms reduce freight emissions? Digital freight matching reduces empty running (currently 25% of truck-km in the EU) by connecting available loads with carriers in real time. AI route optimization adjusts for traffic, weather, and load consolidation, delivering 8 to 15% fuel savings. These are negative-cost abatement measures because they simultaneously reduce fuel spend and increase asset utilization.

Sources

1. European Environment Agency. "Transport and Environment Report 2025: Freight Transport Emissions in the EU." EEA, 2025.
2. International Council on Clean Transportation. "Zero-Emission Truck Market Update: European Union 2025." ICCT, 2025.
3. International Energy Agency. "Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production and Demand Outlook." IEA, 2025.
4. International Maritime Organization. "2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships." IMO, 2023.
5. European Commission. "Revised TEN-T Regulation: Rail Freight Corridor Requirements." Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.
6. Transport & Environment. "European Freight Decarbonization Tracker: 2025 Progress Report." T&E, 2025.
7. Eurostat. "Road Freight Transport Statistics: Empty Running and Load Factors." European Commission, 2024.
8. BloombergNEF. "Zero-Emission Trucks: Total Cost of Ownership Analysis Europe 2025." BNEF, 2025.