Data story: Key signals in Sustainable aviation & shipping

Aviation and maritime shipping together account for roughly 5% of global CO₂ emissions, yet both sectors face acute decarbonization challenges because electrification is not viable for long-haul routes. Five data signals reveal where sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), green shipping corridors, and zero-emission vessel technologies are heading, and which investments will pay off before 2030.

Quick Answer

The sustainable aviation and shipping landscape shows clear directional signals: SAF production capacity has grown 300% since 2022 but still covers less than 1% of jet fuel demand, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) tightened its greenhouse gas strategy to target net-zero by 2050, green methanol and ammonia orders for newbuild ships jumped 480% in two years, and carbon intensity indicators for the global fleet are improving at approximately 2.5% per year. Companies and investors that position early in alternative fuel supply chains, port infrastructure upgrades, and fleet retrofit programs are building durable competitive advantages.

Signal 1: SAF Production Capacity Surging but Still Small

The Data:

• 2022: 300 million liters of SAF produced globally
• 2025: 1.2 billion liters of announced production capacity
• Growth: 300% increase in capacity over three years
• Share of total jet fuel: Less than 0.5% of global demand (approximately 350 billion liters)

What It Means:

SAF production is scaling rapidly, yet the gap between current output and airline industry commitments remains massive. IATA's target of 65% SAF penetration by 2050 requires roughly 450 billion liters per year. Current trajectories suggest 30-50 billion liters by 2030, meaning annual growth rates need to exceed 35% consistently.

The feedstock composition reveals market maturity:

• HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids): 85% of current SAF supply, limited by used cooking oil availability
• Alcohol-to-jet (AtJ): 8% of pipeline projects, scaling on ethanol and methanol routes
• Fischer-Tropsch (power-to-liquid): 5% of announced capacity, highest cost but unlimited feedstock via green hydrogen and captured CO₂
• Catalytic hydrothermolysis: 2% share, emerging pathway using fats and greases

The Next Signal:

Watch for SAF offtake agreement volumes. Airlines including United, Delta, and Lufthansa collectively signed forward purchase agreements covering over 15 billion liters through 2030. The ratio of contracted to uncommitted SAF capacity will indicate whether producers can de-risk financing.

Signal 2: Green Shipping Corridor Commitments Accelerating

The Data:

• Active corridor declarations: 28 green shipping corridors announced globally (up from 6 in 2022)
• Port pairs covered: 47 port pairs across Asia-Europe, transpacific, and intra-European routes
• Government backing: 14 national governments have endorsed specific corridors
• Infrastructure investment committed: $3.2 billion in port-side bunkering and storage

What It Means:

Green shipping corridors create concentrated demand signals for alternative fuels by guaranteeing route-level infrastructure. The Clydebank Declaration at COP26 set the framework, and momentum has shifted from pledges to physical investment.

Key corridor developments:

• Singapore-Rotterdam: Largest global trade route with methanol bunkering operational at both ports since 2024
• Los Angeles-Shanghai: Ammonia and green methanol feasibility studies completed; first pilot sailings planned for 2027
• Gothenburg-Ghent: Fully operational green methanol corridor with Maersk deploying dual-fuel vessels

The Next Signal:

Monitor fuel availability versus vessel orders along declared corridors. Corridors where bunkering infrastructure and vessel deployment timelines are aligned will attract freight premium agreements and preferential port scheduling.

Signal 3: Alternative Fuel Vessel Orders Spiking

The Data:

• Methanol dual-fuel orders: 280+ newbuild vessels on order (up from fewer than 50 in 2022)
• LNG dual-fuel orders: 950+ vessels on order or in operation
• Ammonia-ready vessels: 120+ newbuilds designed for ammonia conversion
• Battery-electric/hybrid ferries: 400+ in operation or on order globally
• Orderbook share: 45% of new container ship orders are for alternative fuel capability

What It Means:

Shipowners are making multi-decade fleet bets on alternative fuels. Maersk alone has ordered 25 methanol-capable container ships. CMA CGM has committed to 77 LNG-powered vessels. The orderbook data indicates the industry consensus is converging around methanol for near-term decarbonization and ammonia for deep decarbonization post-2030.

Fleet Transition Economics:

• Methanol dual-fuel premium: 10-15% above conventional newbuild cost
• Ammonia-ready premium: 5-8% for engine room and fuel system modifications
• Retrofit cost: $5-15 million per vessel depending on fuel pathway
• Green fuel cost premium: 2-5x conventional fuel pricing, narrowing as production scales

The Next Signal:

Track the ammonia engine development timeline. MAN Energy Solutions and WinGD both plan commercial ammonia two-stroke engines by 2026-2027. Delivery of these engines will unlock the ammonia-ready orderbook into actual ammonia-burning vessels.

Signal 4: Carbon Intensity Regulations Tightening Globally

The Data:

• IMO CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator): Mandatory ratings from A to E for all vessels over 5,000 GT since January 2023
• EU ETS for shipping: Maritime emissions included from January 2024, covering 50% of emissions for voyages starting or ending in the EU
• FuelEU Maritime: Requires 2% greenhouse gas intensity reduction by 2025, scaling to 80% by 2050
• CORSIA (aviation): Offsetting requirements for international flights above 2019 baseline active since 2024
• EU ReFuelEU: Mandates 2% SAF blend at EU airports from 2025, rising to 70% by 2050

What It Means:

Regulatory pressure is now coming from multiple directions simultaneously. Shipping faces the IMO's global framework, the EU's carbon pricing, and national mandates. Aviation faces CORSIA globally and ReFuelEU in Europe, with additional mandates emerging in Japan, South Korea, and the United States.

The compliance cost structure is reshaping fleet economics:

• EU ETS exposure for shipping: Estimated at $8-12 billion annually by 2026 at current carbon prices
• CII compliance cost: Vessels rated D or E face operational restrictions; estimated 15-20% of the global fleet needs intervention
• SAF mandate cost: ReFuelEU adds $1-3 per passenger on short-haul flights, scaling to $20-50 for long-haul by 2035

The Next Signal:

Watch for CII rating distribution shifts. In the first full assessment year, approximately 30% of vessels received D or E ratings. The percentage of vessels upgrading through operational changes (slow steaming, route optimization) versus capital investment (retrofits, newbuilds) will signal fleet renewal speed.

Signal 5: Investment Flowing into Fuel Production Infrastructure

The Data:

• SAF investment committed: $18 billion in announced SAF production facilities (2023-2030)
• Green methanol investment: $12 billion in production capacity under development
• Green ammonia for shipping: $7 billion in dedicated maritime ammonia projects
• Hydrogen electrolyzer capacity linked to transport fuels: 15 GW of announced projects
• Total alternative transport fuel investment pipeline: $45+ billion

What It Means:

Capital is flowing into production infrastructure at unprecedented scale, but project completion rates remain the critical variable. Historically, only 40-50% of announced clean fuel projects reach final investment decision (FID). The gap between announcement and operation typically spans 3-5 years.

Investment Distribution by Geography:

• United States: Largest SAF pipeline driven by Inflation Reduction Act credits ($1.25-1.75/gallon blender's tax credit)
• European Union: Strongest regulatory pull from ReFuelEU and FuelEU mandates
• Middle East and North Africa: Green ammonia and methanol production leveraging low-cost solar
• Southeast Asia: Emerging SAF hub with palm oil and waste oil feedstocks

The Next Signal:

Track FID conversion rates for announced projects. Projects that secure long-term offtake agreements with airlines or shipping companies are 3x more likely to reach FID than speculative capacity builds.

Implications for Strategy

For Companies

Near-term (2025-2026):

• Secure SAF forward purchase agreements to lock in supply and demonstrate regulatory readiness
• Evaluate fleet CII ratings and implement operational efficiency measures (speed optimization, hull cleaning, weather routing)
• Establish emissions monitoring and reporting systems for EU ETS and CORSIA compliance

Medium-term (2027-2030):

• Invest in dual-fuel vessel newbuilds or retrofit programs aligned with methanol or ammonia pathways
• Develop port-side bunkering partnerships for alternative fuels along primary trade routes
• Build internal SAF blending and procurement capabilities for aviation operations

For Investors

Due Diligence Signals:

• Does the fuel producer have binding offtake agreements covering over 50% of planned capacity?
• Are vessel orders matched with fuel supply commitments along specific corridors?
• What percentage of fleet meets CII A or B ratings without operational workarounds?
• Is the company positioned for ammonia as a next-generation fuel after methanol?

For Solution Providers

Growth Opportunities:

• SAF production technology licensing and engineering procurement construction services
• Maritime emissions monitoring hardware and software for CII and EU ETS compliance
• Port infrastructure design and bunkering systems for methanol and ammonia
• Carbon intensity optimization platforms using AI-driven route and speed management

Key Players

Established Leaders

• Maersk: Ordered 25 methanol-capable container ships and secured green methanol supply agreements with multiple producers. Operating the world's first large methanol-powered container vessel since 2023.
• Neste: World's largest SAF producer with 1.5 million tonnes per year of renewable fuel capacity. Supplies over 30 airlines globally from refineries in Finland, Singapore, and Rotterdam.
• CMA CGM: Committed $12 billion to fleet decarbonization with 77 LNG-powered vessels and investments in biomethane and e-methanol supply chains.
• TotalEnergies: Investing $1.5 billion in SAF production, targeting 1.5 million tonnes per year by 2030 from La Mede and Grandpuits biorefineries.

Emerging Startups

• Infinium: Produces e-fuels (power-to-liquid SAF and renewable diesel) from captured CO₂ and green hydrogen. Commissioned first commercial facility in Texas.
• Amogy: Developing ammonia-to-power systems for maritime vessels using catalytic cracking technology. Completed first ammonia-powered tugboat demonstration in 2023.
• Prometheus Fuels: Uses direct air capture and electrolysis to produce carbon-neutral gasoline and jet fuel at scale. Backed by BMW and Maersk.
• Hy2gen: Building green hydrogen and e-fuel production plants in Europe, Canada, and Africa targeting maritime and aviation fuel markets.

Key Investors and Funders

• Breakthrough Energy Ventures: Invested in multiple SAF and green hydrogen startups including Infinium, ZeroAvia, and LanzaJet.
• AP Moller Holding: Strategic investments in green methanol and ammonia supply chains through Maersk and independent ventures.
• BlackRock: Largest institutional investor in shipping decarbonization through infrastructure and transition finance vehicles.

FAQ

How much does SAF cost compared to conventional jet fuel? SAF currently costs 2-5x more than conventional jet fuel depending on production pathway. HEFA-based SAF is closest to price parity at 1.5-2.5x, while power-to-liquid SAF ranges from 3-5x. Costs are expected to decline 30-50% by 2030 as production scales.

Can existing ships convert to alternative fuels? Yes, but with significant cost and complexity. Methanol retrofits cost $5-10 million and require tank modifications and fuel handling systems. Ammonia retrofits are more complex due to toxicity management requirements and are expected to cost $10-15 million per vessel. Engine manufacturers are developing conversion kits for both fuels.

What is the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and why does it matter? CII is the IMO's operational efficiency metric that rates vessels from A (best) to E (worst) based on actual CO₂ emissions per tonne-mile. Ships rated D for three consecutive years or E in any single year face mandatory corrective action plans. CII thresholds tighten annually, meaning a vessel rated C today may fall to D or E within two to three years without intervention.

Which alternative fuel will dominate shipping by 2035? Industry consensus points to methanol as the primary transition fuel through 2030 due to established engine technology and growing supply, with ammonia likely becoming the dominant deep-decarbonization fuel post-2030 due to its higher energy density and zero-carbon combustion. LNG will remain significant but faces scrutiny over methane slip emissions.

Sources

1. International Air Transport Association. "SAF Production and Offtake Tracker." IATA, 2025.
2. International Maritime Organization. "2023 IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships." IMO, 2023.
3. Clarksons Research. "Alternative Fuel Orderbook Analysis Q4 2025." Clarksons, 2025.
4. European Commission. "FuelEU Maritime and ReFuelEU Aviation Implementation Updates." EC, 2025.
5. International Council on Clean Transportation. "Vision 2050: Decarbonizing Shipping and Aviation." ICCT, 2024.
6. BloombergNEF. "Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook 2025." BNEF, 2025.
7. Getting to Zero Coalition. "Green Corridors Progress Report." Global Maritime Forum, 2025.