11 min read·
Probabilistic vs storyline vs conditioned attribution: comparing extreme event analysis methods
Probabilistic attribution studies quantify how climate change altered event likelihood using large model ensembles (typically 50–100+ simulations), while storyline approaches reconstruct individual events to isolate thermodynamic drivers. Conditioned attribution partitions observed trends into forced and unforced components. This guide compares speed-to-results (days vs months), uncertainty ranges, litigation admissibility, and resource requirements for each methodology.