Deep Dive: Behavior Change & Climate Communications — The Fastest-Moving Subsegments to Watch

The gap between climate awareness and climate action remains one of the most stubborn challenges in decarbonization. While public concern about climate change has reached historic highs—with 77% of Europeans and 72% of Americans expressing serious worry about climate impacts—actual adoption of low-carbon behaviors lags far behind. This analysis examines the fastest-moving subsegments in climate behavior change and communications, highlighting approaches that are achieving breakthrough results in city and utility pilots across the UK and beyond.

Why This Matters

Household-level decisions drive approximately 65-70% of global greenhouse gas emissions when consumption-based accounting is applied. From transportation choices to dietary patterns, home heating to product purchases, individual and household behaviors aggregate into massive climate impacts. Yet the climate movement has historically under-invested in behavior change relative to technology and policy, assuming that better options would automatically be adopted once available.

The evidence suggests otherwise. Heat pump installations in the UK remain far below government targets despite generous subsidies. Electric vehicle adoption, while growing, is concentrated among early adopters. Home energy retrofit uptake is a fraction of what's needed to meet building decarbonization goals. The bottleneck is not technology availability but adoption—and adoption is fundamentally a behavior change challenge.

For investors, the emerging behavior change ecosystem represents both opportunity and risk. Startups developing effective climate communication and behavior change platforms are attracting significant venture capital. For utilities and local governments, behavior change programs can be substantially more cost-effective than infrastructure investments for achieving demand reduction and fuel switching. For policymakers, understanding what works—and what doesn't—in climate communication can inform program design and resource allocation.

The Fastest-Moving Subsegments

AI-Powered Personalization at Scale

The application of artificial intelligence to personalize climate communications represents the most rapidly advancing subsegment. Rather than generic messaging, AI systems now enable tailored interventions based on individual circumstances, preferences, and behavioral patterns.

UK startup Cogo has developed AI-driven carbon footprint tracking that provides personalized recommendations based on actual spending patterns. Deployed through banking apps including NatWest and Lloyds, the platform serves over 8 million users and has demonstrated 18-22% reductions in carbon intensity of spending among engaged users over 12-month periods.

The personalization extends beyond tracking to intervention design. Machine learning systems identify which message framings, timing, and channels are most effective for different user segments. A/B testing at scale has revealed that personalized communications achieve 3-4x higher engagement rates than generic climate messaging.

Utility programs are deploying similar approaches. Opower (now Oracle Utilities) serves over 100 utility clients with AI-personalized home energy reports. Households receiving personalized recommendations reduce energy consumption by 2-3% on average—modest individually but significant when deployed to millions of households.

Why it's accelerating: Declining AI compute costs, improved behavioral data availability through digital banking and smart meters, and demonstrated ROI enabling utility program scaling.

Community-Based Social Marketing

Community-based social marketing (CBSM) applies behavioral science principles at the neighborhood level, leveraging social norms, commitment devices, and peer influence to drive adoption. This approach has produced some of the most impressive results in recent pilot programs.

The UK's C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group has documented CBSM programs achieving adoption rates 5-8x higher than information-only campaigns for behaviors including home composting, cycling uptake, and heat pump installation. The key mechanisms include:

• Social norm visibility: Making sustainable behaviors visible in the community (e.g., lawn signs for EV owners, community leaderboards)
• Commitment and consistency: Public pledges that activate consistency motivation
• Prompt removal of barriers: Identifying and addressing specific obstacles to adoption
• Social diffusion: Leveraging early adopters as peer influencers

Bristol's Heat Pump Street-by-Street program exemplifies this approach. Rather than marketing heat pumps city-wide, the program concentrates resources on specific streets, recruiting early adopters who then become advocates to neighbors. Streets in the program achieved 35% heat pump adoption within two years versus 3% city average. Installation costs were also lower due to installer efficiency from geographic concentration.

Why it's accelerating: Evidence base maturing, municipal climate action plans creating implementation demand, and cost-effectiveness versus infrastructure alternatives.

Carbon Footprint Transparency Tools

The rapid development of carbon footprint transparency tools—enabling consumers to understand the climate impact of their purchases, investments, and lifestyle choices—represents another fast-moving subsegment.

Beyond individual tracking apps, systemic transparency infrastructure is emerging. The EU Digital Product Passport, required for batteries from 2027 and textiles from 2030, will embed carbon footprint data directly into product information systems. This shifts carbon information from opt-in apps to mandatory disclosure, dramatically increasing visibility.

Financial services are integrating carbon transparency into core products. Swedish fintech Doconomy's "DO" card was the first payment card to calculate and display carbon emissions for every transaction. The approach has been licensed to financial institutions across Europe, with users reporting behavioral changes in 40% of cases after seeing transaction-level carbon data.

Investment platforms including Tumelo and Clim8 provide carbon transparency for investment portfolios, enabling individual investors to understand and reduce the carbon intensity of their holdings. Assets under management on climate-transparent investment platforms grew over 300% between 2021 and 2024.

Why it's accelerating: Regulatory drivers (Digital Product Passport, SFDR for financial products), API standardization enabling data sharing, and consumer demand for transparency.

Gamification and Social Competition

Gamification of climate action—applying game design elements to sustainability behaviors—has moved from novelty to proven approach. Several pilot programs have demonstrated that competition, achievement mechanics, and progress visualization substantially increase engagement with climate behaviors.

Smart thermostat manufacturer Nest (Google) pioneered gamification with its "leaf" icon rewarding energy-saving temperature settings. Users responding to gamification signals reduced heating and cooling energy use by 10-15%—roughly double the savings from smart scheduling alone.

More sophisticated implementations are emerging. The UK's Enzen developed a community energy challenge platform deployed across multiple housing associations. Households compete in energy reduction leagues with real-time leaderboards. Participating households reduced energy consumption by 12-18% during challenge periods, with 8-10% persistent savings after challenges concluded.

JouleBug, a gamification platform for workplace sustainability, has enrolled over 300,000 users across corporate sustainability programs. Gamified sustainability challenges show engagement rates 4-6x higher than traditional awareness programs.

Why it's accelerating: Smartphone ubiquity, smart meter and IoT data enabling real-time feedback, behavioral science validation, and corporate sustainability program demand.

Values-Based and Identity Messaging

The climate communication field is rapidly moving beyond fear-based and fact-based messaging toward values-based and identity-based approaches. Research consistently shows that appeals aligned with audience values outperform generic environmental framing.

The Global Warming's Six Americas segmentation, developed by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, identifies distinct audience segments with different values, priorities, and preferred messengers. Tailored messaging for each segment achieves 2-4x higher behavior change rates than one-size-fits-all approaches.

Particularly striking results have emerged from reframing climate action around non-environmental values. A UK study found that framing home insulation as "keeping money in your pocket" rather than "saving the planet" increased inquiry rates by 340% among audiences not already motivated by environmental concerns. Similarly, framing electric vehicles around "performance and low maintenance" rather than "zero emissions" increased consideration among skeptical demographics.

Identity-based messaging—positioning sustainable behaviors as "what people like you do"—has proven particularly effective. A field experiment in California found that social norm messaging ("most of your neighbors have reduced their energy use") reduced consumption by 2%, but identity-based messaging ("your neighborhood is known for energy efficiency") reduced consumption by 5.7%.

Why it's accelerating: Academic-practitioner knowledge transfer improving, audience segmentation tools becoming accessible, and recognition that environmental framing alone reaches limited audiences.

Pilot Results: UK Case Studies

Greater Manchester Heat Pump Program

Greater Manchester's combined authority launched a comprehensive behavior change campaign alongside its heat pump grant program in 2023-2024. The campaign combined community-based social marketing, personalized digital engagement, and trusted messenger deployment (training local heating engineers as advocates).

Results after 18 months:

• Heat pump grant applications increased 280% versus the previous period
• Cost per installation (including behavior change program) was 23% lower than neighboring regions with grant programs but no behavior change support
• Customer satisfaction scores for heat pump adopters were 15 points higher, attributed to better expectation-setting through communications
• 67% of adopters reported recommending heat pumps to friends and family, creating organic diffusion

London Borough of Lewisham EV Program

Lewisham Council's electric vehicle adoption program targeted lower-income households—typically excluded from EV adoption due to lack of home charging and higher upfront costs. The program combined workplace charging deployment, community car-share, and intensive engagement with housing associations.

The behavior change component included EV "try before you buy" events, peer ambassador training, and personalized financial comparison tools showing total cost of ownership versus internal combustion vehicles.

Results:

• EV registrations in target areas increased 180% year-over-year versus 45% borough average
• 40% of new EV adopters came from households earning below median income
• Participant satisfaction: 92% reported they would recommend the program
• Cost-effectiveness: £340 per vehicle transition versus estimated £800+ for incentive-only programs

Scottish Household Energy Efficiency Engagement

Energy Saving Trust Scotland deployed a multi-channel behavior change program targeting households in fuel poverty with home energy efficiency measures. The program integrated AI-powered personalization, community champions, and simplified application processes.

The program reduced the average household application-to-installation journey from 6 months to 8 weeks through systematic barrier identification and removal. Engagement rates with personalized communications were 4.2x higher than previous generic outreach.

Outcome metrics:

• 32,000 households completed energy efficiency measures in program areas versus 18,000 projected
• Average energy bill savings: £380/year per participating household
• Carbon reduction: estimated 58,000 tonnes CO2 annually from program households
• Program cost per tonne abated: £12—well below typical carbon abatement costs

What's Not Working

Despite advances in some subsegments, persistent challenges remain:

Information-deficit approaches: Programs assuming that providing more climate information will drive behavior change continue to underperform. Decades of research confirms that information alone rarely changes behavior; yet many programs continue this approach because it's easier to implement than genuine behavior change interventions.

Shame-based messaging: Communications emphasizing guilt, blame, or individual responsibility for climate change have been shown to reduce engagement among target audiences and increase psychological distancing from climate issues.

One-size-fits-all campaigns: Mass communication campaigns that fail to segment audiences or tailor messaging continue to show weak results. The marginal cost of personalization has dropped dramatically, making generic approaches increasingly unjustifiable.

Digital-only engagement: Programs relying exclusively on apps and digital platforms miss the majority of the population. Digital tools work best when integrated with community engagement, trusted messengers, and offline touchpoints.

Action Checklist

• Assess current climate communication programs against behavioral science best practices; identify gaps in personalization, barrier removal, and social marketing elements
• Develop audience segmentation for climate programs; map distinct segments and their value profiles
• Pilot community-based social marketing approach in one target geography before scaling
• Integrate AI-powered personalization into digital engagement channels for climate programs
• Deploy carbon transparency tools for customer-facing products and services
• Evaluate gamification and social competition elements for existing behavior change programs
• Test values-based message framing with target segments before campaign deployment

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: How do behavior change programs compare to infrastructure investment for climate impact?

A: Behavior change programs typically achieve carbon abatement at £10-50 per tonne CO2—substantially below infrastructure alternatives. However, behavior change and infrastructure are complements, not substitutes. Behavior change programs are most effective when they accelerate adoption of infrastructure already available (heat pumps, EVs, renewables), not as alternatives to infrastructure deployment.

Q: What's the evidence that behavior change effects persist over time?

A: Persistence varies by intervention type. Gamification and competition show 40-60% decay of effects after program conclusion. Community-based social marketing shows 70-85% persistence because behaviors become normalized in community context. Habit formation interventions (making sustainable behaviors automatic) show the highest persistence at 80-95% retention.

Q: How do we reach audiences who are skeptical of climate change?

A: Avoid climate framing entirely with skeptical audiences. Instead, emphasize co-benefits that align with their values: cost savings, energy independence, local air quality, technological innovation, or national competitiveness. Research shows that climate skeptics adopt sustainable behaviors at similar rates to climate-concerned audiences when presented with non-climate framings.

Q: What role should government play versus private sector in behavior change?

A: Government has unique convening power and can set transparency requirements (like Digital Product Passport) that enable private sector innovation. Private sector has superior capability for personalization, digital engagement, and rapid iteration. The most effective programs combine public sector program design and funding with private sector delivery and technology.

Sources

• Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. (2024). Climate Change in the American Mind. Available at: https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/
• European Commission. (2024). Eurobarometer: Climate Change. Special Eurobarometer 538.
• Climate Outreach. (2024). Britain Talks Climate: A Toolkit for Engaging Different Audiences. Available at: https://climateoutreach.org/
• C40 Cities. (2024). Community-Based Social Marketing for Climate Action. Available at: https://www.c40.org/
• Energy Saving Trust Scotland. (2024). Annual Impact Report 2023-2024. Available at: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/
• McKenzie-Mohr, D. (2023). Fostering Sustainable Behavior: An Introduction to Community-Based Social Marketing, 4th Edition. New Society Publishers.
• Oracle Utilities. (2024). Opower Energy Efficiency Impact Report. Available at: https://www.oracle.com/utilities/